全球新秩序中的美国 ， 中国和欧盟 ： 两个或三个的世界 ？

CIDOB Opinion 606 discusses the evolving geopolitical landscape and the European Union's (EU) role within it, particularly in light of the "return of geopolitics" centered around the confrontation between the United States and China. The main points highlighted are:

1. Geopolitical Shift: The global order is transitioning back to a more traditional power-political system, dominated by confrontation between Washington and Beijing, according to EU High Representative Josep Borrell.

2. The EU's Position: The EU aims to assert its independent voice in this new geopolitical environment, learning the 'language of power' to balance and counterbalance the influence of the US and China. It seeks to maintain its own approach without aligning completely with either superpower.

3. Narratives vs Reality: There is a debate on whether the current situation resembles a new Cold War. While relations between the US and China are strained due to various sanctions and trade disputes, the actual impact of these actions might not match the scale or severity often portrayed in narratives suggesting a return to Cold War dynamics.

4. Decoupling Challenges: The EU faces significant challenges in decoupling economically and in restructuring security structures. This includes reducing dependency on the US, which is not only a costly and divisive process but also difficult given the EU's historical ties and reliance on transatlantic cooperation.

5. Actionable Strategic Autonomy: The EU is making strides towards strategic autonomy, notably through initiatives like Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and increased cooperation with NATO. However, the effectiveness of these measures in achieving true independence from the US remains uncertain.

6. Balancing Act: The EU may choose to distance itself from the US in certain situations, such as when dealing with China, but this is complicated by the EU's need to maintain strong relations with NATO. Borrell's shift from 'strategic autonomy' to 'collaborative autonomy' suggests a recognition of the limitations in fully decoupling from the US.

7. Geopolitical Realism: The geopolitical shift is seen as temporary, possibly influenced by the current US administration under President Donald Trump. Expectations are that the US will revert to a more traditional stance once Trump leaves office, but skepticism over quick decoupling is expected due to the long-term nature of global interdependencies.

8. Policy Coherence: To navigate this new geopolitical landscape effectively, the EU needs to improve policy coherence across various instruments, including foreign policy, security, defense, and trade. The EU's external action must be strategically aligned and coherently implemented to truly make a difference.

In summary, the EU is navigating a complex geopolitical environment characterized by a return to traditional power politics, aiming to assert its independence while maintaining strategic alliances and balancing interests in a world increasingly shaped by the confrontation between the US and China.