白俄罗斯革命与克里姆林宫

CIDOB Opinion 633 discusses the revolutionary transformation happening in Belarus and its implications for Russia's hegemony in Eastern Europe. The report highlights that the Belarusian society, previously perceived as resistant to change, has shown unprecedented levels of discontent and protest against the authoritarian regime led by President Lukashenko. The protests, which have spread across various sections of society including urban elites, factories, and rural areas, mark a significant shift from previous instances of discontent.

Lukashenko's traditional electoral support base of 80% has failed to materialize, leading to a lack of preparedness among both the opposition and the Russian leadership. Initially, Russia took a cautious approach, showing sympathy towards the protesters and criticizing Lukashenko, unlike past reactions in countries like Ukraine. However, the Russian narrative shifted, echoing the accusations made by Lukashenko's supporters and Russian media, which were largely unfounded.

The report suggests that the situation in Belarus poses a significant challenge to Russia's influence in Eastern Europe. As Russia's dominant position is questioned by the unfolding events, the Kremlin is facing internal difficulties, including citizen protest movements, regional elections, and the costs of maintaining illegal territories like Crimea and Donbass. Moreover, the Russian economy is under strain, which adds to the challenges faced by the regime.

The report argues that the European Union's response to the Belarusian situation is limited, primarily focusing on selective sanctions and support for civil society and the opposition. However, it emphasizes the importance of the EU's role in supporting Belarusian sovereignty and independence, particularly in contrast to Russia's narrative of interference.

A symbolic yet crucial step forward, according to the report, would be for the EU to reconsider its terminology regarding Belarus, recognizing it by its historical name "Belarus" instead of the Russified term "White Russia." This change in nomenclature would reflect the country's identity and autonomy, countering Russian efforts to assimilate Belarus into the broader Russian identity.

In conclusion, the report underscores the significance of the Belarusian revolution as a decolonization process in Eastern Europe, challenging the status quo and questioning Russia's hegemonic role in the region. It highlights the growing external and internal pressures on Russia, which must adapt to maintain its influence amidst changing geopolitical dynamics.