CIDOB Notes Internacionals 236 highlights the significant implications of the upcoming US elections and their impact on global dynamics. The core of this report revolves around contrasting visions between the incumbent President Donald Trump and the Democratic candidate Joe Biden, emphasizing that neither election outcome will revert to the status quo.
Key points from the report:
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Transformation of the US: The nation is in a state of transformation both domestically and internationally, with significant societal polarization evident across various dimensions.
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Political and Social Polarization: The Republican party has adopted a short-term strategy focusing on the white middle-aged population concerned about their diminishing status, while the Democrats aim for long-term alignment with an increasingly unequal and diverse society.
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International Relations: Trump's administration has strained traditional alliances and approached new powers through unstable personal ties with leaders like Putin, Modi, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, and Kim Jong-un. This has impacted America's diplomatic infrastructure and international cooperation.
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Key Predictions:
- Uncontested Results: Could trigger a constitutional crisis.
- Post-Trump Scenario: Could see the continuation of the Trumpist ideology or the rise of a new political figure.
- Rise of Violent Extremism: Threatens American open society due to the use of misinformation and increasing violence from the far-right.
- Migration Policies: Large changes would depend on whether the Democrats maintain control over Congress.
- Global Power Dynamics: The US's dominance is challenged, especially regarding its share of global power with China.
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Implications for Europe: The US-European relationship could be shaped by shared responsibilities among democrats and republicans.
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Domestic Challenges for Trump: Trump's potential refusal to accept electoral outcomes poses a threat to democratic processes, potentially leading to a constitutional and political crisis.
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Manipulation of Truth: Trump has consistently manipulated truth, fostering media fragmentation and social bubbles, and creating a polarized society where political party loyalty overshadows individual party discomfort.
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Impact of COVID-19: The pandemic's management under Trump may influence the current political divide, with partisanship being the primary driver of attitudes towards the virus.
The report concludes by underscoring the complex challenges facing the US and its implications for global politics, emphasizing the need for the new administration to address domestic polarization, global power shifts, and the manipulation of truth, particularly in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
