顿巴斯的冲突管理 ： 不可能的选举

CIDOB notes internacionals 241, published in December 2020, discusses the evolving conflict management in the Donbas region under the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky. Key points:

1. Conflict Management Efforts: Zelensky, who campaigned on a platform emphasizing diplomacy, dialogue with Russia, and efforts to win hearts and minds in the occupied territories, has initiated several steps since taking office. These include agreeing to the "Steinmeier formula" in 2019, upgrading Ukraine's representation in the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) in 2020, and actively implementing agreements on withdrawing forces and maintaining a ceasefire.

2. Humanitarian Progress: On the ground, Kyiv has taken measures such as improving infrastructure, launching a TV channel for residents of the occupied territories, and expanding opportunities for school graduates from the region to attend universities in Kyiv-controlled areas. However, these efforts have not led to substantial changes in electoral conditions, particularly in relation to the special self-governance regime in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (ORDLO).

3. Elections Delayed: Despite these steps, the prospect of democratic elections in the occupied territories was deemed unrealistic due to ongoing conflicts and the lack of secure conditions. The latest potential election date proposed was March 31, 2021, following discussions between Ukraine's delegation to the TCG and self-declared ORDLO representatives. However, the version of the document shared contained provisions unacceptable to Kyiv.

4. Conflict Dynamics: The fundamental conflict between Ukraine and Russia remains unresolved, with Moscow seeking to legitimize the status quo in the Donbas region through its aggression, making constructive reintegration nearly impossible. Russia has not accepted Ukraine's independence and sovereignty, nor has it changed its behavior significantly.

5. Security and Humanitarian Progress: While there has been a notable decrease in shooting intensity with fewer casualties among Ukrainian military and civilians compared to previous periods, exchange of detainees has stalled since April 2020. The prospect of the next Normandy Four meeting remains uncertain.

6. Political and Strategic Approach: Zelensky's approach involves simultaneous movement on political and security tracks, alongside a heavy focus on the humanitarian track. This strategy aims to demonstrate goodwill towards the population in and around the occupied territories, though it has not yet translated into significant political benefits for Zelensky's political force.

The report concludes that while Zelensky's efforts have produced tactical results, there has been no progress on fundamental strategic aspects of the conflict. The relationship between Zelensky and Russia continues to be complex, with both similarities and differences compared to the approach of Petro Poroshenko's presidency.