从核打击中 “发脾气 ”

CIDOB Opinion 650 highlights the significance of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which entered into force on January 22, 2021, marking a historical milestone in the realm of nuclear disarmament. This treaty holds greater scope and comprehensiveness compared to previous disarmament agreements. It prohibits signatory states from developing, manufacturing, acquiring, possessing, stockpiling, transferring, testing, using, or threatening to use nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. Moreover, each state party is obligated not to allow stationing, installation, or deployment of such weapons or devices within its territory.

The Treaty's adoption and swift signature and ratification by over 122 states demonstrate a strong commitment to eliminating nuclear weapons by non-nuclear-weapon states. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), instrumental in the treaty's adoption, organized events to commemorate the day when nuclear weapons became illegal under international law.

However, the entry into force of the Treaty may be overshadowed by other pressing events, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, economic downturns, and political crises in the United States. The uncertainty stemming from former President Trump's access to nuclear codes adds to the urgency of addressing nuclear threats.

An unprecedented move by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi requested the Pentagon to limit President Trump's ability to use nuclear weapons during his last days in office, reflecting the need for enhanced safeguards against an unstable president initiating military action or launching a nuclear strike. Several senators and members of Congress also called for measures to check the president's authority to launch nuclear weapons.

Experts have raised concerns about the current system where the president has sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons, suggesting modifications to require concurrence from other officials. The risk of an unstable president using nuclear powers remains real despite the end of the Cold War.

The global nuclear arsenal stands at approximately 13,400 warheads, with the US accounting for a significant portion of this figure. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) faces challenges due to a lack of progress in nuclear disarmament, deteriorating arms control agreements between the US and Russia, unresolved issues concerning North Korea's nuclear program, and the potential collapse of the Iran nuclear deal following US withdrawal.

These developments, coupled with President Trump's request for military options against Iran and the deployment of a new low-yield W76-2 warhead, underscore the growing concern over nuclear threats. The efforts to abolish nuclear weapons began in 1945 but have seen limited success. The 'humanitarian initiative' in 2010, focusing on the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of nuclear use, facilitated the adoption of the Ban Treaty. Despite its practical limitations, the ban treaty continues to exert diplomatic and civil society pressure on nuclear-weapon states to disarm.