西北非洲战略失败的代价

CIDOB's report dated January 2021 highlights several key points regarding the Western Sahara conflict and its implications on regional dynamics, particularly under the leadership of President Donald Trump:

1. Recognition of Sovereignty: President Trump's declaration recognizing the sovereignty of Morocco over the Western Sahara aligns with his trademark transactional diplomacy, marking a significant shift in Arab-Israeli relations. This move, however, has received strong criticism from former UN envoys, notably former US Ambassador Christopher Ross and former US Secretary of State James Baker III.

2. Arms Race and Economic Impact: The unresolved conflict in Western Sahara has accelerated the arms race in North Africa, resulting in an estimated annual loss of more than 2% in GDP growth. The closure of borders between Algeria and Morocco is another consequence, leading to increased militarization and hindering economic development.

3. EU's Strategic Shortcomings: The European Union (EU) has been criticized for lacking strategic vision regarding North-West Africa, especially concerning the security interests of its members like Spain, Italy, and France. Despite the EU's alignment with the UN Security Council's support for negotiations, it has signed trade and fishing agreements with Morocco, ignoring the European Court of Justice's ruling that such agreements should not include the territory of the Sahrawi people.

4. Impact on Algeria and Morocco: Algeria's ability to spend billions on weapons purchases has been enabled by its oil and gas income. Meanwhile, Morocco continues to modernize its armed forces with support from Gulf and Saudi allies. However, Algeria's economic downturn may limit its capacity for continued arms spending.

5. Regional Dynamics and Diplomacy: The decision of countries like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and now Morocco to normalize relations with Israel underlines the impact of transactional diplomacy on Arab-Israeli relations. This move further complicates regional dynamics, particularly given France's long-standing support for Morocco, which has influenced its diplomatic posture in the region.

6. Economic Interests vs. Strategic Considerations: While some EU members prioritize economic interests in North Africa, France's complex relations with Algeria have limited its ability to advance broader strategic considerations. Germany's approach to Eastern Europe offers a contrast, tying former Soviet countries to German economic interests.

7. Influence and Regional Instability: The EU's influence in the region has diminished, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean and in its interactions with Russia. In the Central Mediterranean, France's support for Haftar in Libya has strained relationships with Italy and Algeria, highlighting the challenges posed by an unstable periphery.

This report underscores the complexities of regional politics, the impacts of specific diplomatic actions, and the challenges faced by international organizations in maintaining stability and promoting peace in volatile areas.