埃塞俄比亚 ： 在非洲之角的潜在 （ 去 ） 稳定存在

CIDOB Opinion 651 - January 2021: Ethiopia's Role in Regional Stability

Overview: Ethiopia, a key player in African geopolitics, faces significant challenges that could potentially destabilize the Horn of Africa and beyond. The country's recent history showcases a mix of progress and setbacks, particularly under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has attempted to reform governance and address ethnic tensions, yet has encountered fierce resistance.

Key Points:

1. Economic Growth & International Recognition: Ethiopia boasts economic growth above the African and global averages, positioning it as a voice for the continent. Its status as the headquarters of the African Union highlights its role in continental affairs. The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed underscores the country's aspirations for regional leadership and peace.

2. Political Tensions & Instability: Despite initial promises of peace and reform, the country has experienced internal instability, exemplified by the conflict in Tigray. The perceived loss of power and privileges by the region's elites, along with the efforts of Ahmed's government to liberalize the public sector and reduce tribal favoritism, have led to rebellion and conflict.

3. Ethnic Dynamics & Governance: Ahmed's attempts to address ethnic dynamics within the state through a new political tool, the Prosperity Party, and a national discourse based on the "Great Ethiopia" concept, have exacerbated ethnic suspicions and discontent. The Tigray conflict demonstrates the fragility of these reforms and the deep-seated issues related to ethnic identity and governance.

4. Geopolitical Challenges & Alliances: Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile has sparked regional tensions, threatening to escalate into a conflict with unforeseen consequences. This project represents a significant shift in the management of the Nile's waters, challenging the historical sharing agreements and potentially leading to diplomatic or military confrontation.

5. Regional Alliances & Uncertainty: Under Ahmed's leadership, Ethiopia has strengthened ties with various regional powers including China, Russia, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while facing opposition from Qatar and Egypt. The outcome of US foreign policy under the new administration, particularly regarding troop presence in Somalia, remains uncertain, adding another layer of complexity to the region's geopolitics.

6. Enduring Questions: The future stability of Ethiopia hinges on the management of ongoing conflicts, particularly over water resources, and the capacity of Ahmed's government to navigate alliances and potential escalations. Historically, Ethiopia has been a skilled player in regional and global geopolitics, yet its path forward is fraught with uncertainty and complex dynamics.

Conclusion: Ethiopia's potential to stabilize the Horn of Africa and the broader continent is significant but contingent upon addressing deep-rooted issues related to governance, ethnic dynamics, and strategic alliances. The evolving geopolitical landscape, especially with the new US administration, presents both opportunities and challenges for Ethiopia's role in regional stability.