Afganistan, AUKUS i l’autonomia estratègica europea
AI智能总结The text discusses the European Union's (EU) lack of strategic autonomy and the need to develop a more independent approach to security and defense, particularly in light of the United States' shifting focus towards the Indo-Pacific region and growing tensions with China. The key points are:
-
Strategic Autonomy: The concept refers to the EU's capability to achieve its foreign policy objectives using its own resources, often in cooperation with member states or independently if necessary. This is a topic of extensive debate in European capitals, traditionally centered around defense but now expanding to cover trade, cyber security, artificial intelligence, and global health.
-
Afghanistan and AUKUS: The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the establishment of the AUKUS alliance between Australia, the UK, and the US have reignited discussions about European strategic independence. The AUKUS agreement directly challenges the EU, especially France, to develop greater strategic autonomy and build a more geopolitically engaged Europe.
-
EU's Weakness: Despite the EU's strength in commercial and regulatory power, it lacks the necessary capabilities for security and defense, and political will to improve them. These capabilities remain fragmented among member states and under the NATO umbrella. There are also difficulties in consolidating a European strategic culture that acts as a bridge for a more geopolitically engaged Europe.
-
Afghanistan Experience: The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan highlights the need for strategic autonomy. When the US decides to withdraw unilaterally, or when European nations cannot correct strategic mistakes under the US umbrella, this emphasizes the necessity for self-reliance.
-
AUKUS and Strategic Interests: AUKUS exemplifies the growing focus of international relations on security and defense. It goes beyond traditional territorial defense and protection against invasions, encompassing global and multi-sector issues like cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and maritime security.
-
EU's Inadequate Response: The EU's response to AUKUS has been seen as weak, with leaders condemning what they view as a second successive blow by the US, while studying the unsuccessful request for a trade and technology council between the EU and the US as a sign of protest. Some member states are hesitant about the concept due to perceived French influence and are reluctant to see strategic autonomy as nonexistent because of internal EU divisions.
-
AUKUS and Brexit: AUKUS also mirrors an error made during Brexit negotiations, where the EU focused too much on securing a commercial agreement while neglecting the strategic relationship with the UK, a key defense partner and global presence.
-
Flexibility in Alliances: AUKUS showcases how alliances today are more flexible and complementary than traditional institutional frameworks. The "China-first" approach in US foreign policy prioritizes dealing with China over loyalty to traditional allies. New entities like the Quad (strategic dialogue between the US, India, Japan, and Australia) and the Five Eyes (intelligence alliance between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US) reflect a focus on China's growing assertiveness and aggression.
-
Global Priorities: For President Biden, the most important democracies facing China's rise are outside Europe. Non-essential alliances contribute to shared geopolitical interests.
-
Conclusion: The text argues that international stability is more than just trade flows, pandemics, or climate crises. The recent events in Afghanistan and AUKUS remind us of the importance of security and defense in a increasingly Hobbesian world. The EU needs facts and political will, both in terms of capabilities and strategic partnerships, to ensure its strategic autonomy. France, as a crucial actor for European defense post-Brexit, must move past its grievances with AUKUS and help build a Europe that speaks the language of power.
