黎巴嫩 ： 金融危机还是国家崩溃 ？

Lebanon is currently grappling with an unprecedented economic and financial crisis, which started around October 2019 with mass demonstrations against the political elite. The crisis involves a foreign debt default, currency devaluation, and banking sector bankruptcy. The collapse is seen as more than an economic downturn, threatening the very existence of the country.

The crisis began with unsustainable deficits, starting from the late 1980s after the end of the civil war, resulting in a trade balance with structural deficits. The deficit increased from $3.5 to $6.5 billion annually from 1990 to 2007. After the global financial crisis, it escalated to $10 billion yearly until 2011, further increasing to $15 billion in 2014 and fluctuating around $13 billion until 2019. These deficits represent a significant portion of the GDP, consistently around 25% to 35%.

The Lebanese pound depreciated drastically, from an official rate of 1507 LBP to $1 in October 2019 to over 30,000 LBP to $1 in early 2022. This led to hyperinflation, with prices growing by nearly 200% at the end of 2021. GDP fell sharply from $55 billion in 2018 to $35 billion in 2020 and estimates for 2021 range between $22-$24 billion. GDP per capita plummeted from around $8,000 in 2018, categorizing Lebanon as a middle-income country, to less than $3,000 by the end of 2021, placing it in the lower-income category within 18 months.

The crisis is also marked by high unemployment, poverty rates soaring from 30%-35% in 2019 to 85%-90% by the end of 2021, and mass emigration. Essential services like healthcare and electricity are severely affected, with hospitals refusing to treat patients without advance cash payments, and the state power company providing only two hours of electricity daily.

Despite the severity of the situation, the Lebanese government has struggled to implement necessary reforms. The caretaker government, in place since May 2022, has yet to address pressing issues, including adjusting internet and mobile service tariffs to reflect actual costs. The reluctance to tackle these issues stems from past corruption and the current scarcity of funds.

In summary, Lebanon's crisis is rooted in decades of unsustainable spending, leading to a perfect storm of economic collapse, hyperinflation, and widespread poverty. The crisis has significantly impacted the standard of living, health, and infrastructure, challenging the nation's survival.