突尼斯经济自由落体

Tunisia's economy is experiencing a significant downturn, marked by declining state investment, deteriorating standards in education and healthcare, and growing economic instability. This deterioration is attributed to a series of government actions, including the expansion of the civil service and parastatals, which has led to a doubling of the state wage bill and increased subsidies, adding to the fiscal burden. The country faces challenges such as a 100% foreign debt-to-GDP ratio, high inflation rates, and shortages of basic commodities like bread, sugar, and milk.

The government's economic policy under President Kais Saied is characterized by a focus on attacking speculators and neglecting the creation of a comprehensive reform plan. This approach is seen as detrimental to economic growth and stability. The country's poor economic performance has led to a decline in attractiveness for foreign investors, and there is concern over capital flight.

In response to these challenges, the Tunisian authorities reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2022, aiming to support macroeconomic stability. However, the country continues to face a severe crisis with deteriorating state services, regional disparities, and a struggling tax system that has become predatory. The poor are experiencing further declines in living standards, and the country's ports have become conduits for illicit imports without paying customs duties.

The European Union and the IMF have historically extended loans to Tunisia, despite acknowledging that previous Tunisian administrations lacked genuine intentions to enact economic reforms. This has resulted in a moral hazard, where the behavior of Tunisian rulers is misunderstood, leading to continued support despite evident lack of reform. The situation exacerbates the crisis and leads to a lack of trust among foreign investors.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled for December, which the opposition plans to boycott. The approval of a new constitution by a large majority highlights the disconnect between the populace and political leadership, as only 30% of eligible voters participated in the referendum. This could lead to even lower turnout in December, potentially undermining President Saied's political legitimacy.

The economic fallout from COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine has exacerbated Tunisia's pre-existing economic issues. The 2011 revolution, once heralded as a beacon of hope, is now likened to "bitter lemons," symbolizing the disappointment felt by Tunisians. The economic outlook for EU countries, Tunisia's major trading partners, is bleak, further impacting Tunisia's economic trajectory.

Moody's decision to place Tunisia's credit ratings on review for downgrade has significant implications, potentially making it difficult for the country to borrow internationally. The government faces the challenge of financing a $3.2 billion foreign loan required for the 2022 budget without revising the budget, risking default on foreign debt. The competence of the central bank governor, Marouane El Abassi, is questioned amidst concerns about the potential appointment of a demagogue in his stead.

Overall, Tunisia's economic situation is dire, characterized by a lack of progress in addressing key issues, a challenging political environment, and a diminishing appeal to foreign investors. The country's leaders face significant challenges in navigating the current crisis and implementing necessary reforms.