墨西哥经济 ： 是总统 ？

CIDOB Opinion 799 discusses the upcoming Mexican elections on June 2nd, 2024, focusing on the potential election of the country's first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. The elections will be marked by their scale, with over 20,000 positions up for election and nearly 100 million voters participating. Three major political forces are competing in the presidential race, led by Sheinbaum from the coalition led by the party of the incumbent president, the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA).

Sheinbaum is expected to win due to strong poll leads, marking a significant milestone for gender equality in Mexican politics. This achievement is a result of decades of feminist struggle since Mexico recognized women's voting rights 71 years ago. It also represents a step forward in international perceptions of Mexico's democratic progress.

Sheinbaum’s campaign emphasizes the continuity of the left-wing policies initiated by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, specifically the social programs that benefit around 71% of the population. However, she may introduce a different approach compared to her predecessor, adopting a more technocratic policy-making style with a team composed of experts from various fields. Her environmental background could lead to a shift in social, environmental, and fiscally conservative policies towards more progressive ones.

While none of the candidates have a strongly feminist agenda, the election of a woman president is expected to bring about changes beyond symbolism, impacting gender dynamics in Mexican society, which remains heavily patriarchal. The country faces high rates of gender-based violence, including 11 average daily feminicides with 95% of these crimes remaining unpunished.

The election atmosphere is tense, with concerns over violence against candidates and their supporters. More than 30 candidates have been assassinated since the end of the previous year, along with many political leaders' associates. This situation has resulted in a record number of victims in 2023.

Sheinbaum supports the current government's policies and advocates for strengthening the National Guard. She acknowledges the role of the military during the administration of President López Obrador but suggests possible reductions in military presence in government-owned companies. Additionally, Sheinbaum calls for a thorough review of the justice system to address the causes of violence and provide more support and programs for young people.

The incoming president will face an unequal country with a large portion of the population living in extreme poverty, educational reversals, and significant health system failures. The country also grapples with a highly polarized society influenced by populist discourse from the current administration and an overlooked middle class.

Overall, the report underscores the importance of cooperation and dialogue as critical elements for the new president to navigate the complex challenges facing Mexico.