The "Note de Synthèse" published by France Stratégie outlines the government's climate plan aiming to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. It emphasizes ending the sale of vehicles emitting greenhouse gases by 2040, aligning with several other countries' policies. The document reviews policies in eight nations: Germany, UK, Netherlands, Spain, Norway, US, India, and China. It focuses on electric vehicles (EVs) for personal use but also touches on electric buses and light commercial vehicles as well as hydrogen usage.
In 2017, global EV sales reached 1.2 million units, accounting for 1.5% of new vehicle sales, marking a near 60% increase from the previous year. Eight countries—China, US, Japan, Norway, UK, France, Germany, and Sweden—account for nearly 90% of global sales, with China leading due to its large market dominated by EVs, particularly battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
Four countries have set medium-term goals to stop selling new gasoline vehicles: the Netherlands by 2030, Scotland by 2032, France and the UK by 2040. Norway aims for 100% EV sales by 2025 without banning gasoline vehicles, relying on financial incentives to achieve this. California mandates EV sales quotas to manufacturers, while China plans to enforce similar rules starting 2019, setting sales targets for alternative energy vehicles.
In contrast, only a few EU countries sold more than a few dozen EVs in 2017. Battery advancements facilitate EV diffusion, enabling longer distances (up to 400 km on roads and 250 km on highways) with faster charging times.
Electric vehicles offer a viable alternative to gasoline vehicles, especially for daily commuting. As battery capacity increases, long-distance travel becomes feasible with high-power, fast-charging stations along major routes. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) compete directly with BEVs, offering both thermal and electric motors with varying degrees of electric autonomy.
In terms of sales, BEVs and HEVs were roughly equal in 2017 globally, with a slight edge for HEVs. In Europe, however, BEVs outperformed HEVs. Public incentives drive sales, with HEVs often emitting more greenhouse gases than reported during homologation tests. Countries must revise rules to ensure accurate emissions data.
Subsidy reductions or elimination lead to decreased sales; this has been observed in the Netherlands for HEVs and Denmark for BEVs. The future of HEVs depends on their cost relative to BEVs and public incentives. Increasing HEV electric autonomy to cover 80% of daily trips and adding thermal engines for long-distance journeys will bring them closer to achieving carbon neutrality.
Hydrogen-powered vehicles allow for long-distance travel but have sold less than 3,000 units worldwide in 2017 due to high costs. Japan aims to sell 40,000 hydrogen vehicles by 2020, 200,000 by 2025, and 800,000 by 2030, with plans for 160 hydrogen stations by 2020 and 320 by 2025.
