聚烯烃日报：油价回落，聚烯烃成本支撑走低

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 中性。国际原油价格回落明显，成本端支撑减弱。带动聚烯烃期现价格重心下移，市场情绪低迷，场内交投延续弱势。未来随着检修装置陆续重启，现货供应预期增加。季节性淡季需求仍维持弱势，终端下游农膜开工缓慢提升，棚膜需求将逐渐进入储备阶段，下游企业订单短期有提升预期。石化库存去化速度缓慢。预计聚烯烃市场维持区间整理。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存83万吨（7）。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在20元/吨，PP华东基差在0元/吨。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际原油价格回落明显，成本端支撑减弱。兰州石化6 PE装置、海南炼化30 PE装置、东莞巨正源30PP装置、海天石化20PP装置、台塑宁波28PP装置停车检修，聚烯烃开工负荷走低。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口与PP出口窗口处于盈亏平衡附近。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL