2023年12月全球贸易报告（英文）

UPDATE Globaltradesettocontractby5percentin2023 DECEMBER2023 Globaltradeingoodsto declinebynearlyUS$2trillionin2023,buttradeinservices toexpandbyUS$500billion. Exportsfromdevelopingcountriesunderperformed,South-Southtradesharplydecreased,andEastAsiatraderemainedbelowaverage. Geopoliticaltrends,includingdeclininginterdependencebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates,arehavingagrowingimpactonglobaltrade. TradegrowthremainssubduedinQ42023,indicatingpersistingchallenges. Outlookfor2024stilluncertainbutoverallpessimistic. Globaltradepatternstakeageopoliticalturn AveragechangeinbilateraltradewitheachgroupsinceQ12022 8% 6% 4%Geopolitically close 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Geopoliticallyverydistant Geopoliticallydistant Q1Q2 Q3 2022 Q4Q1 Q2Q3 2023 GLBAL Source:UNCTADcalculationsbasedonnationalstatistics. Note:Bilateraltradeiscategorizedinto3groupsaccordingtothegeopoliticalclosenessindexutilizingUNvotingrecordsasametric.ThefigurethenplotsthechangeinthetradeshareofeachofthesegroupstakingQ12022asbasis.DataisweighedaveragedandexcludesintraEuropeanUnion.Dataexcludesservices. Globaltradetrends Globaltradehasexperiencednegativegrowthsincemid-2022,primarilydrivenbyasubstantialdeclineingoodstrade,whichcontinuedtocontractinthefirstthreequartersof2023.Incontrast,tradeinserviceshasdisplayedmoreresilienceanditsgrowthremainedpositivethroughoutthesameperiod.Overall,theGlobalTradeUpdateprojectsthatglobaltradein2023coulddroptolessthanUS$31trillion,representingacontractionofaboutUS$1.5trillion(or4.5percent)comparedtothe2022recordhigh.Specifically,tradeingoodsisexpectedtocontractbynearlyUS$2trillionin2023,or7.5percent,whileservicestradeshouldgainaboutUS$500billion,or7percent. Tradegrowth:stronglynegativeforgoodsbutstillpositiveforservices 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2 Estimates Q3Q4 ServicesAnnualgrowth Goods Quarterlygrowth ServicesQuarterlygrowth Goods Annualgrowth 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Sources:UNCTADstat;UNCTADcalculationsbasedonnationalstatistics. Note:Quarterlygrowthisthequarteroverquartergrowthrateofseasonallyadjustedvalues.Annualgrowthreferstothelastfourquarters.FiguresforQ32023areestimates. Eventhoughthevalueoftradedgoodsdecreasedin2023,theslightlypositivetrendinthevolumeofinternationaltradesuggestsaresilientglobaldemandforimportedproducts. Tradevolumesshowmarginalincreasesin2023 IndexQ12019=100 Estimates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 140 120 100 80 60 Source:UNCTADstat;UNCTADcalculationsbasedonnationalstatistics. Values Volumes Summaryandoutlook Globaltradehasexperiencedadeclinethroughout2023,primarilyinfluencedbydiminisheddemandindevelopednations,underperformanceinEastAsiaeconomies,andadecreaseincommodityprices.Thesefactorscollectivelycontributedtoanotablecontractioninthetradeofgoods.Incontrast,tradeinserviceswitnessedgrowthforthemajorityof2023,asurgeattributedtoitsdelayedrecoveryfromtheCOVID-19downturn.However,thereboundoftheservicessectorssloweddownconsiderablyduringthesecondhalfof2023.TradedownturnhasbeenmoremarkedfordevelopingcountrieswithSouth-Southtradeunderperformingthroughoutthemajorityof2023.ThesetrendscanbeattributednotonlytothedownturnintheEastAsiaregionsbutalsotodiminishedtradebetweenAsianeconomies.Lookingaheadto2024,theforecastforglobaltraderemainshighlyuncertainandgenerallypessimistic.Whilecertaineconomicindicatorshintatpotentialimprovements,persistentgeopoliticaltensions,highlevelsofdebt,andwidespreadeconomicfragilityareanticipatedtoexertnegativeinfluencesonglobaltradepatterns. Someofthemostrelevantfactorsinfluencingglobaltradeinclude: •Positiveeconomicgrowth,butwithsignificantdisparities Globaleconomicforecastsremainsteadybutstillfallbelowhistoricalaverages.Furthermore,substantialdisparitiespersistamongcountriesandregionsintermsofanticipatedeconomicoutlooksfor2024.Suchdisparitieswillinfluencepatternsoftrade. •Highinterestratesandweakeningindustrialoutput Economicactivityisbeinghinderedbypersistentlyhighinterestratesinseveraleconomies.ThelatestPurchasingManagers’Index(PMI)readingsforChinaandtheUnitedStatessuggestasubduedoutlookforindustrialoutputinthecomingmonths. •Commoditypricesvolatility Regionalconflictsandpersistentgeopoliticaltensionsarelikelytoaddfurtheruncertaintytocommoditymarkets.Additionally,theincreasingimportanceofsecuringcriticalmineralsfortheenergytransitionisexpectedtoaffectpricesandfurthercontributetomarketvolatilityinthesecommodities. •Lengtheningofsupplychains Globaltradeisbeinginfluencedbythewaysupplychainsrespondtoshiftsintradepolicyandgeopoliticaltensions,withnotableimpactsobservedinsupplylinkagesbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.Companiesfromotherregions,particularlyinEastAsianeconomiesandMexico,havehadopportunitiestobecomemoreintegratedintothesupplychainsaffectedbygeopoliticalconcerns. •Increaseinsubsidiesandtraderestrictivemeasures Theresurgenceintheuseofindustrialpolicyandtheurgencyofmeetingclimatecommitmentsaredrivingchangesintradepolicies,bothintheformoftariffsandnon-tariffmeasures.Useoftraderestrictive