生猪月报：5月供给减量兑现，后市不要过早看空

1   -1- -2- -3- -4- 1 LH2201 LH2301 LH2401 LH2501 30,000 25,000 30,000 3 LH2203 LH2303 LH2403 LH2503 25,000 20,00020,000 15,00015,000 10,00010,000 5,0005,000 0 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/1 0 4/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/1 5 LH2205 LH2305 LH2405 7 LH2207 LH2307 LH2407 25,00025,000 20,00020,000 15,00015,000 10,00010,000 5,0005,000 0 6/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/1 0 8/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/1 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 30,000 9 LH2109 LH2209 LH2309 LH2409 11 LH2111 LH2211 LH2311 LH2411 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 10/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 0 12/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/1 -5- / 15,0005 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -5 -1,0 -1,5 -2,0 -2,5 -10,000 9 LH2109 LH2209 LH2309 LH2409 10/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 -3,000 00 7-9 0LH2207-LH2209 00 LH2307-LH2309 LH2407-LH2409 00 00 00 00 10/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/1 / / 3,000 3,000 9-1 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 2,000LH2109-LH2201LH2209-LH2301LH2309-LH2401 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -2,000 9-11 LH2109-LH2111 LH2209-LH2211 LH2309-LH2311 12/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1 -4,000 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/1 / / 3,000 9-3 4,000 9-5 2,000LH2109-LH2203LH2209-LH2303LH2309-LH24033,000LH2109-LH2205LH2209-LH2305LH2309-LH2405 1,0002,000 01,000 -1,0000 -2,000-1,000 -3,000-2,000 -4,000 4/15/16/17/18/1 -3,000 6/16/116/217/17/117/217/318/108/208/30 -6- 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 15KG 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 7,000 50KG 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1/1 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 0 1/1 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 15.00 13.00 11.00 9.00 1.20 150-120kg 175-120kg 200-120kg 120kg 0.70 0.20 -0.30 16.00 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 7.00 5.00 2021/6/3 2021/12/32022/6/32022/12/32023/6/32023/12/3 -0.80 -1.30 4.00 2.00 0.00 1/1 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -7- 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 18.00160,000 17.50 17.00 150,000 16.50 16.00 140,000 15.50130,000 15.00 14.50 120,000 14.00 13.50 110,000 13.00 2024/2/182024/3/42024/3/192024/4/32024/4/182024/5/32024/5/18 100,000 -8- 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 135.00 130.00 125.00 120.00 115.00 110.00 105.00 100.00 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 %20.00% 90KG %40.00% 150KG 201920202021202220232024 35.00% 201920202021202220232024 15.00%30.00% 25.00% 10.00%20.00% 15.00% 5.00%10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1/1 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 0.00% 1/1 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -9- 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -10- 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 2010/1/82011/7/82013/1/82014/7/82016/1/82017/7/82019/1/82020/7/82022/1/82023/7/8 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 3,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -11- 2022 2023 2024 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -12- 4,500 4,3624,3794,3884,3904,367 4,343 4,3054,284 4,258 4,2964,271 4,2414,240 4,210 4,1584,142 4,0674,042 3,9923,986 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 2022-09 2022-12 2023-03 2023-06 2023-09 2023-12 2024-03 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 % 5.00%12.00 4.00% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 3.00%11.50 2.00%11.00 1.00%10.50 0.00% -1.00%10.00 400,000 200,000 0 2020-022020-11 2021-082022-052023-022023-11 -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 94%85.00% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00% 80% 2020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024- 60.00% 2020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024- -13- -14- -15-