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日本实现包容性增长的可持续途径：如何解决收入不平等问题？（英）2024

金融2024-07-15IMFζ***

AI智能总结

Market income inequality in Japan has notably increased since the 1980s, reaching levels comparable to the OECD average. This rise in income inequality is primarily attributed to demographic changes, particularly the growing elderly population. However, the government's fiscal policies, through taxes and transfers, have helped mitigate the inequality in disposable income.

Key findings include:

Market income inequality has escalated significantly since the 1980s, with the Gini coefficient increasing nearly 60%.
Gross income inequality has risen less sharply but remains higher compared to several comparator countries.
Disparity in disposable income has seen a smaller increase, demonstrating the effectiveness of fiscal redistribution.
Despite the government's efforts, income inequality in Japan remains higher than the OECD average when considering disposable income.
Cross-country comparisons suggest that Japan's income inequality, especially among the top earners, is lower than in the United States and closer to European countries.

To address these issues, the paper recommends:

Implementing policies that reduce income disparity in the labor market, focusing on the dual nature of employment where many part-time and non-regular workers earn less.
Considering the impact of rapid aging on income inequality and exploring strategies to manage the demographic shift effectively.
Evaluating the efficiency of fiscal redistribution mechanisms, potentially looking for alternative methods to maintain equalization without compromising economic growth and sustainability.

The paper concludes that understanding the underlying factors contributing to income inequality in Japan is crucial for developing effective policies aimed at promoting inclusive growth.

SustainablePathtoInclusiveGrowthinJapan:HowtoTackleIncomeInequality? Japan PurvaKheraandYunGao SIP/2024/026 IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonApril152024.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo24/119. 2024 JUN ©2024InternationalMonetaryFundSIP/2024/026 IMFSelectedIssuesPaper AsiaandPacificDepartment SustainablePathtoInclusiveGrowthinJapan:HowtoTackleIncomeInequality? PreparedbyPurvaKheraandYunGao AuthorizedfordistributionbyRanilSalgadoJune2024 IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonApril15,2024.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo24/119. ABSTRACT:MarketincomeinequalityinJapanhasbeenonasteadyrisesincethe1980s,andisnowclosetotheOECDaverage.Grossanddisposableincomeinequality,ontheotherhand,haverisenmuchlessbutremainhigherrelativetoseveralcomparatorcountries.Thispaperemploysinequalityindexdecompositionsbyincomesourceusinghouseholdpanelsurveydatafrom2010-19toidentifythefactorsdrivingincomeinequalityinJapan.Resultsindicatethatwhileincreaseintheemploymentoffemalesandtheelderlyinthelastdecadehashelpedlowerincomeinequality,thishasbeenoffsetbythembeingmostlyemployedinlow-paidpart-timenonregularjobs.Rapidagingofthepopulationhasalsoexacerbatedincomeinequalityovertime.Moreover,whilefiscalredistributiveeffectsofsocialtransfersarefoundtobeasomewhatequalizingforce,itsimpactoninequalityisrelativelyweaker. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Khera,P.andY.Gao.2024.“SustainablePathtoInclusiveGrowthinJapan:HowtoTackleIncomeInequality?”IMFSelectedIssuesPaper(SIP/2024/026).Washington,D.C.:InternationalMonetaryFund. JELClassificationNumbers: E26;J21;J31 Keywords: Inequality;labormarketduality;wagegap;fiscaltransfers Author’sE-MailAddress: PKhera@imf.org;ygao@hkma.gov.hk SELECTEDISSUESPAPERS SustainablePathtoInclusiveGowthinJapan:HowtoTackleIncomeInequality? Japan PreparedbyPurvaKheraandYunGao1 1Theauthor(s)wouldliketothankYanCarrière-SwallowandtheJapaneseauthoritiesforprovidinghelpfulcomments.YanGaoisamanagerattheHongKongMonetaryAuthority(HKMA), April15,2024 JAPAN SELECTEDISSUES PreparedByPurvaKhera(APD)andYunGao(OAP) ApprovedBy AsiaandPacificDepartment CONTENTS SUSTAINABLEPATHTOINCLUSIVEGROWTHINJAPAN:HOWTOTACKLEINCOMEINEQUALITY?2 A.Introduction2 B.MacroeconomicTrendsinIncomeInequality2 C.EmpiricalAnalysis:DataandMethodology3 D.Results5 E.PolicyRecommendations11 BOXES 1.Household-SurveyDatabase13 2.MethodologyforFactorDecompositionoftheGiniIndex14 FIGURES 1.GrossandDisposableIncomeInequalityHigherthanComparatorCountries3 2.GiniCoefficientinJHPSSurveyDatavs.Macro-BasedIndicators5 3.CompositionofHouseholds’GrossIncome6 4.GiniDecompositionbyIncomeSource6 5.SourceofChangesinIncomeInequality,2010-197 6.ImpactofDemographicsandSocialTransfers9 7.LaborMarketDualismExacerbatesIncomeInequalityAcrossGenderandAge11References16 SUSTAINABLEPATHTOINCLUSIVEGROWTHINJAPAN:HOWTOTACKLEINCOMEINEQUALITY?1 A.Introduction 1.Incomeinequalitymattersforgrowthandsustainability.Increasingconcentrationofincomesisfoundtoreduceaggregatedemandandunderminegrowth,becausethewealthyspendalowerfractionoftheirincomesthanmiddle-andlower-incomegroups(CarvalhoandRezai,2016).Higherinequalitymayalsoleadtopolicychoicesthathurtgrowth.Forinstance,itmayincreasedemandsforhikesinpublicexpendituretocounterinequality,resultingintaxincreasesdownthepipelinethatmayhavenegativeimplicationsforgrowth(Dabla-Norrisandothers,2015). 2.InthispaperweseektounderstandthekeysourcesofincomeinequalityinJapanandidentifythepoliciesthatcouldhelpmaketheJapanesesocietymoreequal.Thisisarelevantexerciseas:(i)IncomeinequalityinJapanhasbeenonariseandishighacrosscomparatorcountries.(ii)ReducinginequalityisakeyfocusofPMKishida’sNewCapitalismagenda.(iii)WhilemostofthecurrentliteratureprovidestheoreticalargumentsforwhatmightbedrivingtheincomeinequalityinJapanusingmacro-leveldata(ColacelliandAnh,2018;Aoyaguandothers,2015),ourpaperprovidesacomprehensiveanalysisbydiggingdeeperintomicrohousehold-levelsurveydatatobetteridentifytheunderlyingfactorsthatdriveinequality,includinghowthesedriversvaryacrossdifferenthouseholdcharacteristics. B.MacroeconomicTrendsinIncomeInequality 3.MarketincomeinequalityinJapanhasbeenonasteadyrisesincethe1980s.TheGinicoefficientformarketincome(incomebeforetaxesandtransfers)hasbeenonasteadyrisesincethe1980s–increasingbycloseto60percent between1980-2019–andisnowclosetotheOECDaverage.Thisriseispartiallyattributabletothedemographictransition,i.e.,theriseintheshareoftheelderlyinthepopulation(Aoyagiandothers,2015). 4.Grossanddisposableincomeinequalityhaverisenmuchless,reflectingtheactiveroleoffiscalredistributionthroughtaxesandtransfers.TheGinicoefficientofgrossincome(incomeaftertransfers)worsenedbycloseto19 percentbetween1980-2010,buthassomewhatstabilizedinthelastdecadebeforethepandemic 1PreparedbyPurvaKh

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