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BSR Climate Scenarios

信息技术2024-07-02BSR徐***

AI智能总结

BSR Climate Scenarios: A Tool for Resilient Business Strategy

Introduction

Business for Social Responsibility (BSR) has developed an updated set of climate scenario narratives designed to support businesses in identifying climate-related risks and opportunities, enhancing strategic resilience, and responding to growing climate risk disclosure requirements. These narratives are built upon the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) climate scenario framework, providing a comprehensive view of plausible socioeconomic, political, and technological developments over decades.

Key Findings

1. Climate Scenario Analysis:

Businesses utilize climate scenario analysis to stress-test strategies against various future scenarios, promoting strategic discussions, and informing more resilient business strategies.
This analysis aids in creating robust business strategies and financial planning by identifying actions resilient across a wide range of climate futures, improving strategic agility, and meeting disclosure requirements from investors and stakeholders.

2. The Role of Climate Scenario Analysis in Financial Reporting:

The Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) encourages companies to conduct climate scenario analysis to disclose the resilience of their business strategies.
The European Commission's mandatory reporting and the US Securities and Exchange Commission's recommendations prioritize climate scenario analysis for assessing risks and opportunities related to climate change.

3. Benefits of the NGFS Scenario Framework:

The NGFS scenarios integrate both physical and transition risks, providing a unified framework for climate risk analysis.
These scenarios are developed by reputable climate models and are suitable for all sectors, aligning with TCFD recommendations.
They offer a broad range of temperature pathways and guard against model biases, ensuring a realistic assessment of potential climate impacts.

4. BSR’s Extended Climate Scenario Narratives:

BSR has extended three climate scenarios (Net Zero 2050, Delayed Transition, and Current Policies) based on the NGFS framework.
Each scenario highlights key business-relevant data points, emphasizing physical and transition risks, with a focus on variables such as carbon pricing, energy mix, and GDP loss from climate damage.
These narratives are designed to provide a broader perspective on business operations within the context of plausible future scenarios, incorporating trends and plausible pathways for each topic under each scenario.

Conclusion

BSR’s climate scenario narratives serve as a valuable tool for businesses aiming to navigate the complexities of climate change. By integrating the NGFS framework and focusing on business-relevant data, these scenarios enable organizations to prepare for a variety of potential future conditions, enhancing their resilience and strategic planning capabilities. Through detailed narratives and data-driven insights, businesses can better anticipate and manage climate-related risks and opportunities, contributing to sustainable and adaptive business practices.

BSRClimateScenarios Atooltodriveresilientbusinessstrategy Updated2023withNGFSPhaseIIIScenarios Copyright©2022byBusinessforSocialResponsibility(BSR) TableofContents 1.Introduction ExecutiveSummaryDefaultVariableList 2.BackgroundInformation AboutClimateScenarioAnalysisNGFSScenariosFramework 3.ClimateScenarioNarrativesandData ClimateScenariosOverviewClimateScenarioNarratives 4.Conclusion 5.Appendix GlossaryAcknowledgementsAboutBSR ©2022BusinessforSocialResponsibility 01 Introduction 3 ExecutiveSummary Businessesareusingclimatescenarioanalysistoidentifyclimate-relatedrisksandopportunities,enhancestrategicresilience,andrespondtoburgeoningclimateriskdisclosurerequirements.Tosupporttheseefforts,BSRhasdevelopedthreeextendedclimatescenarionarrativesbuiltontheNetworkforGreeningtheFinancialSystem(NGFS)climatescenarioframeworkandcorrespondingdatasets.BSR’sscenariosetprovidesexpandedandmoreholisticbusiness-relevantnarrativeswithdecade-by-decadeaccountsofplausiblesocioeconomic,political,andtechnologicaldevelopments,groundedintheNGFSdata. Thethreescenariosare: CurrentPolicies NetZero2050 DelayedTransition Onlycurrentlyimplementedpolicies(asof2020)werepreserved.Absentambitiousgovernmentorbusinessaction,emissionsareontracktoreachatleast3°Cofwarmingby2100. Thetransitiontoanet-zeroeconomyrequireddrasticandcoordinatedglobalaction,particularlyinthe2020s.Thecostofactionwashighbutwarmingpeaksat1.6°Cin2060thendeclinesto1.5°Cby2100. Afteradecadeofinaction,asetofuncoordinatedandstringentpolicieswereadoptedinthe2030storapidlyhaltgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.Thisapproachcameathighsocialandeconomiccostsbutultimatelyheldwarmingtoapeakof1.8°Cby2100. Whileeachscenariofeaturesincreasingphysicalrisksfromclimatechangeoverthenext15years,thosedivergesignificantlythereafter—withradicallydifferentoutcomesoverthelongterm.Ambitiousclimateactionisabletomoderatephysicalriskovertime.However,thescenariosalsomakeclearthatdelayedactionsignificantlyincreasesbothphysicalandtransitionrisksforbusinessandsociety. Thisdocumentprovidestheextendednarratives,alongwithmoreinformationonclimatescenarios,theirroleinsustainabilityreporting,andhowtobestusethem. DefaultVariableList ThefollowingvariablesarealwaysincludedinBSRclimatescenarioanalyses.Thevariablesareforglobaldata,unlessstatedotherwise.Itisrecommendedthatthesevariablesbereviewed,asneeded,forregionsorcountriesofinterest. CurrentPolicies NetZero2050 DelayedTransition GlobalMeanTemperature X X X GreenhouseGasEmissions X X X EnergyMix X X X CarbonPrice X X X FossilFuelvs.RenewableEnergyInvestments X X X EnergyDemandvs.EfficiencyInvestments X GDPLossfromClimateDamage X X X MarketBehavior(i.e.,ConsumptionLoss) X X X ClimateDamagebyRegion X LaborProductivityLossduetoHeatStress X GovernmentTaxesbySector X X EmissionsinHard-to-abateSectors X X CarbonCapture(CCS)Investments X X 02 BackgroundInformation 7 AboutClimateScenarioAnalysis TheCaseforClimateScenarioAnalysis Climatescenariosanalysiscanhelporganizations: 1 4 Identifyandassessclimate-relatedrisksandopportunitiesandstress-testbusinessstrategiesagainstplausiblefutures. 2 Enhancestrategicconversationsbychallengingbusiness-as-usualassumptionsandconsideringnovel,disruptivedevelopments. 3 Promotecollaborationamonginternalstakeholdersthroughshareddiscussionofkeydriversreshapingtheexternaloperatingenvironment. Createmorerobustbusinessstrategiesandfinancialplanningbyidentifyingmanagementactionsthatarerobustacrossawiderangeofplausibleclimatefutures. 5 Improvestrategicagilitybyestablishingindicatorstomonitorthechangingbusinessenvironmentandrehearsingresponsestodisruptioninadvance. 6 Meetdisclosurerequirementsandrequestsfrominvestorsandotherstakeholdersforinformationonclimate-relatedrisksandopportunities,and theresilienceofitsbusinessstrategy. ClimateScenarioAnalysisinFinancialReporting TheTaskForceonClimate-RelatedFinancialDisclosures(TCFD)recommendsthatcompaniesundertakeclimatescenarioanalysistotestanddisclosetheresilienceoftheirbusinessstrategy.Manyjurisdictionsaredevelopingclimate-relateddisclosurerulesandstandards,ofteninlinewiththeTCFDrecommendations. TaskForceonClimate-RelatedFinancialDisclosures TheTCFDrecommendationsspecifythatdisclosureofthisanalysiswillassistinvestors,underwriters,insurers,andotherstakeholderstobetterunderstand: “thedegreeofrobustnessoftheorganization’sstrategyandfinancialplansunderdifferentplausiblefuturestatesoftheworld; howtheorganizationmaybepositioningitselftotakeadvantageofopportunitiesandplanstomitigateoradapttoclimate-relatedrisks;and howtheorganizationischallengingitselftothinkstrategicallyaboutlonger-termclimate-relatedrisksandopportunities.” MandatoryReporting Intheirclimate-relatedfinancialdisclosureruleandstandard,theEuropeanCommissionprioritizes,andtheUSSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionrecommends,theuseofclimatescenarioanalysistoidentifyandassessclimate-relatedrisksandopportunitiesandtesttheresilienceofbusinessstrategiestoclimatechange. TheClimate-RelatedDisclosuresStandardoftheInternati

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