世界经济论坛促进有效能源转型2024（英）

IncollaborationwithAccenture FosteringEffectiveEnergyTransition INSIGHTREPORT JUNE2024 Images:GettyImages Contents Foreword3 Executivesummary4 Introduction5 1Framework8 2Overallresults11 2.1Transitionscores13 2.2Transitionmomentum16 2.3AlookbackonCOVID-19impacts18 3Sub-indexanddimensiontrends21 3.1Systemperformance22 3.2Transitionreadiness34 4Tailoredtransitionpathways37 4.1Regionalinsights38 4.2Income-levelinsights40 4.3Localenergyresourcesinsights40 5Lookingahead:top10actions42 Appendices44 A1Methodologyandindicators44 A2Countrygroupperformanceprofiles45 Contributors53 Endnotes54 Disclaimer Thisdocumentispublishedbythe WorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarily representtheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders. ©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem. June2024FosteringEffectiveEnergyTransition Foreword MuqsitAshraf GroupChiefExecutive,AccentureStrategy RobertoBocca Head,CentreforEnergyandMaterials;Member oftheExecutiveCommittee,WorldEconomicForum Thespeedandtrajectoryoftheglobalenergytransitionarenowmoreimportantthanever.Itiscriticalforbothpolicy-makersandbusinessestobalancethethreeenergysystemprioritiesofequity,securityandsustainability.Itisalsoclearthatthereisnosingleuniversalanswerforallcountries.TheFosteringEffectiveEnergyTransitionreport,now inits14thedition,benchmarksenergysystemperformanceandreadinessforthetransitionthroughtheEnergyTransitionIndex(ETI)andprovidesinsightsacrossnations. Inthepastdecade,thesustainabilitydimensionofenergysystemperformancehasimprovedwithashifttorenewablesandtheintegrationofelectricvehiclesintomainstreamuse.However,progresshasbeenunevenglobally.Asidefromincreasedadoptionofwindandsolar,ithasnotkeptpacewiththetrajectoryneededtoreachnetzeroby2050,particularlyregardingenergyefficiencygains,systemelectrificationandadoptionoflow-carbonenergysourcesandfuels.Inasignificantstepforward,recentdecisionsatthe28thConferenceoftheParties(COP28)aimtodoubleenergyefficiencyandtriplerenewableenergycapacityby2030,andtransitionawayfromfossilfuelsinajustandequitablemanner. Equity-focusedpoliciesanddecisionsaregainingprominence.However,investmentsindevelopingnationsremaininsufficient,andchallengespersistwithinandacrosscountries,especiallyinenergyaffordabilityandaccess.Meanwhile,energysecurityrisksneedtobemanagedeffectivelyamidrisinggeopoliticaltensions.ETIdatashowsthatwhilecountrieshavemanagedtoaddresssecurityshocksinrecentyears,thiscomesattheexpenseofequityandsustainability. Countriesarerampingupeffortstoenhancetransitionreadiness,includinghumancapitaldevelopment,wherecleanjobsrepresentmorethanhalfofallenergy-relatedjobs.Cleanenergyinfrastructureinvestmentshavealsobeenincreasing,reaching$1.8trillionin2023,butalmost90%ofthegrowthsince2021hasbeeninadvancedeconomiesandChina,1highlightingwidegapsintransitionmomentum. Digitalinnovations,includinggenerativeartificialintelligence(AI),presentsignificantopportunitiesforenergycompanies,enablingthemtogenerateover$500billioninsavingsannually.2Thiscanenhanceequityandsecuritybyenablingadditional capitalinvestmentorreducingenergysupplycosts.Nevertheless,asthesetechnologiesadvance,theelectricityneededfortheircomputationaldemandswillincreaseandmustbemanagedcarefullythroughtheadoptionofmoreefficientAImodelsandcleanenergysources. WhileETIscoreshavereachedrecordhighs andshownnotableimprovementsacrossvariousdimensions,thepaceofprogresshasslowed,partlyduetogrowinguncertaintiesinthegloballandscape.TheETIprovidesdecision-makerswithacomprehensiveassessmentofglobalenergysystemsandtrendsovertime.Thisyear’seditionmaintainsconsistencywithlastyear’smethodology,enablingstakeholderstomakecomparisonsandtrackdevelopments.The2024ETIalsointroduces“tailoredpathways,”providing newperspectivesoncountrypathwaysandglobalcollaboration.Thesepathwaysallowdecision-makerstoconsidercountry-specificdimensions,suchasincomelevel,localenergyresources andregion,tomaximizeimpactandadvancetheenergytransition. Executivesummary Inadynamicgloballandscape,mostcountriesareprogressingintheenergytransition,withthecentreofgravitymovingtowardsdevelopingnations. Growinguncertaintiesareimpeding energytransitionmomentumdespiterecordEnergyTransitionIndexscores.GlobalaverageEnergyTransitionIndex(ETI)scoresreachedtheirhighestlevels,with107outof120countriesmakingprogressoverthepastdecade.However,thegloballandscapeismarkedbyeconomicvolatility,heightenedgeopoliticaltensions,andtechnologicalshifts.ThisuncertaintyisreflectedintheETI,wheretherateofimprovementoverthepastthreeyearshasdecreased. Energysecuritycontinuestobetested,energyequityhasgoneintoreverseandsustainabilityshowsagradualimprovementoverthepastthreeyears.Geopoliticalten