又快到7.30关口，人民币汇率破7.26 的内外因素分析

6 24 I2024 7.30 619 7.26 7.28 G7 7.12 +2% 7.25 7.30 624628 7.237.30 7. 10CPI 20111290 Z0017101 26 1..........................................................................................1 1.1..............................................................................1 1.2........................................................1 1.3..........................................................................3 1.3.1.............................................................................................3 1.3.2.............................................................................................4 1.3.3.............................................................................................4 2.................................................................................................5 2.1-..................................................................5 2.2.......................................................................5 2.2.1.....................................................................................5 2.2.2.....................................................................................6 2.2.3..................................................................................8 2.2.4..................................................................................9 2.3................................................................................10 2.3.1.................................................................10 2.3.2.............................................................10 3........................................................................................12 3.1.................................................................12 3.2............................................................................17 3.3..........................................................18 ...........................................................................................19 ..................................................................................................20 21 22 ......................................................................................................22 1.1.1 ..................................................................................................1 1.2.12024........................2 1.2.22024617621.2 1.2.3 .....................................................................3 2.1.1 ...............................................................................................5 2.2.1 ..........................................................5 2.2.2 ..............................................................5 2.2.3 ..........................................................6 2.2.4 ................................................................................7 2.2.5 % ..............................................................8 2.2.6 .....................................................................9 2.2.7 NDF USDCNH .........................................................................9 2.2.8 USDCNY 25Delta %..........................9 2.3.1 .............................................10 2.3.2 .......................................................................10 2.3.3 .............................................11 2.3.4 .......................................................................11 3.3.1 2024.6.24-6.28 ................................18 1 .................................19 2 % ..................................................................20 3 ...................................................21 4 Shibor %............................................................................21 5SOFR %.............................................................................21 6%.................................................................................22 7....................................................................................22 1. ( BIS 7.1151 7.1196 7.1148 7.1196 0.063% USDCNY7.2557 7.2613 7.2559 7.2613 0.077% USDCNH7.2700 7.2880 7.2680 7.2880 0.248% 157.2708 159.4542 157.8003 159.4542 1.388% 1.0699 1.0749 1.0694 1.0694 -0.045% 1.2684 1.2724 1.2642 1.2642 -0.331% 105.5271 105.8289 105.2299 105.8289 0.286% CFETS99.89 —— —— 99.97 0.080% 105.84 —— —— 106.08 0.227% 94.45 —— —— 94.62 0.180% 1.1 2024617621 62116:30 CFETSBISSDR 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 1.2 619 7.26 7.28 5 6 5 6 8 2024 6 ZEW PMI 5 A 70 70 5 68 70 1.2.12024 iFinD 1.2.22024617 621 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.2.3 7.30 7.28 7.26 7.24 7.22 7.20 7.18 7.16 7.14 108.00 107.00 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 7.12 2024-02-232024-03-232024-04-232024-05-23 101.00 : iFinD 1.3 1.3.1 G7 7.12 +2%“” 7.30 7.25 2024 “ ” “ ” 624628 7.237.30 1.3.2 1.3.3 2. - 2.1 614 45 7.1196 2.1.1 1 2 457051386-7392 RefinitivBloomberg 2.2.1 2.2.2 455532440-5927 0.100 0.050 0.000 (0.050) (0.100) (0.150) (0.200) (0.250) 0.15000 0.14000 0.13000 0.12000 0.11000