《土耳其经济监测报》，2024年3月：关于正确的应对措施（英）

TÜRKİYE ECONOMICMONITOR March2024 PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized ONTHERIGHTTACK > Contents ExecutiveSummary10 I.TakingStock11 Türkiye’seconomicpoliciesbuiltonlowcostofborrowing,highinvestment,exportsandemployment deliveredstronggrowthperformanceinitially,buthadstartedlosingsteamandresultedinawidening11 currentaccountdeficitandveryhighinflation. 11 Theeconomyregisteredstronggrowthperformancein2022butthegrowthratesloweddowninthesecondhalfof2022andin2023. Thecurrentaccountdeficitincreasedrapidlyin2022andremainedlargein202313 Monetarypolicyremainedloosein2022andinthefirsthalfof2023,despitehighinflationandcontinuingliradepreciation,onlytobetightenedstartingfromJune2023. 14 15 18 BaseeffectsandpolicymeasureshelpedinflationeasefromitspeakinOctober2022untilJune2023,butinflationhasrecentlyrebounded Corporatesfacedrisingproductioncostsandworkingcapitalneedswhileenjoyinglowercostofborrowingin2022andinthefirsthalfof2023 18 20 Thefinancialsector,supportedbythegradualsimplificationofmacroprudentialpolicies,remainedresilientamidchallenges Therisingexpendituresandearthquakerelatedinvestmentneedshaveimplicationsonoverallfiscalbalances Robustemploymentandwagegrowthcontinuein2023withunemploymentdeclining21 II.LookingAhead24 A.Aperiodofthenormalizationofmacroeconomicpolicies24 Therecentstepstakentowardsnormalizationofmacroeconomicpoliciesareexpectedtoboostconfidence,mitigatemacrofinancialrisks,andsupportthevulnerable 24 25 27 Thepolicynormalizationwilllikelyinitiallyresultinaperiodofdepreciatedliraandslowereconomicgrowth,astheeconomycorrectstheimbalancesoftherecentpast Commitmenttotightmonetarypolicyuntilinflationexpectationsareanchoredwillsupportconfidence,butthedisinflationwillbechallenging. 28 Thegradualadjustmentoffinancialsectorpoliciestoreconvergetointernationalstandardswillstrengthenfinancialstability Elevatedinvestmentneedsandhighinflationwarrantacautiousandwelltargetedfiscalpolicy29 Anewwindowofopportunitytoconsiderstructuralreforms29 B.Severalriskscanaffectthepathofeconomicgrowthandpovertyreduction30 Fiscalrisksaccumulateonearthquakerelatedexpenditures,contingentliabilities,wages30 Externalimbalancescontinuedespitearecoveryinreserves31 Globaleconomyisonalow-growthtrajectorywithamplifiedgeopoliticaltensions.33 Slowingeconomicgrowthposesriskstopovertyreductioninthemediumterm.34 III.SpecialTopic35 CorporatevulnerabilityinTürkiyeandlinkagestofinancialsector35 References:40 Annex1:Medium-TermOutlook,Nominal41 Annex2:Medium-TermOutlook,PercentofGDP42 > Boxes Box1:Passthroughofshockstoinflation17 Box2:MeasuringtheinternationalreservepositionoftheCBRT32 > Figures Figure1:Economicactivityremainedrobustin2022H1,butsloweddownsince2022H212 Figure2:Themomentumofgrowthisvolatile12 Figure3:Servicessectoristhemaindriverofgrowth13 Figure4:Economicactivityhasslowedin2023H213 Figure5:Thecurrentaccountdeficitwidened14 Figure6:…onthebackofhighergoldimportsandcontractingmerchandiseexports14 15 Figure7:TheCentralBankstartedincreasingthepolicyratein2023Juneafteralong-lastedeasingcyclecausingarapidincreaseininflationandasignificantdeclineinrealrates Figure8:CPIinflationpeakedinOctober2022,easeduntilJune2023,butstartedtoincreaseagain16 Figure9:Thefoodandservicesinflationareparticularlyhigh16 Figure10:Exchangeratepass-throughtoCPIinflation17 Figure11:Pass-throughofshocktoCPIsubcomponents17 Figure12:Corporatesfacedhighercostofproduction…18 Figure13:…whileenjoyingnegativerealcostofborrowing18 Figure14:CARshaveimprovedrecently20 Figure15:SectorlevelNPLratioislow20 Figure16:Strongfiscalbalancehasbeendeteriorating…20 Figure17:…andprimarysurplusturnedintodeficit20 Figure18:Totalemploymentisatrecordlevels,whileunemploymentratesfelltolowestlevelssincemid-201321 Figure19:GrosswageshaveincreasedmorethanCPIinyoyterms21 Figure20:Povertycontinuedtodeclinein2021,incomeinequalityhasincreased22 Figure21:Theincomegrowthoftop10decilewasrelativelyhigherin202122 Figure22:Datt-Ravalliondecompositionofpovertyreduction(2020-2021)23 Figure23:Theshareofcasualemploymentisdeclining23 Figure24:Domesticdemandhasbeenthemaindriverofgrowth,andtoalesserextentinupcomingyears25 Figure25:Persistencyofinflationhasincreased27 Figure26:Even5-yearaheadinflationexpectationsarenotinsingledigits27 Figure27:Currencycompositionofgovernmentdebtposesrisks31 Figure28:Theshareofrigidexpendituresinthebudgetishigh31 Figure29:SwapsandFXrequiredreservesmakeupasignificantportionofforeigncurrencyreserves32 Figure30:Externalfinancingneedsareincreasinginthecomingmonths32 Figure31:GlobalIPslightlydecreasedinQ333 Figure32:Euroareaactivityisstillweak33 Figure33:Policyratesarerisinginadvancedeconomies34 Figure34:Oilpriceremainhigh34 Figure35:Interestcoverageandprofitabilityofcorporatesectorincreased35 Figure36:Corporatesectorhaslowereditsopenposition35 Figure37:Corporatevulnerabilityhasdeclined…36 F