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《土耳其经济监测报》，2024年3月：关于正确的应对措施（英）

金融2024-06-18世界银行S***

AI智能总结

Türkiye's economy has experienced significant growth, primarily driven by low borrowing costs, high investment, exports, and employment. Initially, these policies led to strong performance in 2022, yet they started to lose momentum and resulted in a growing current account deficit and high inflation. Despite efforts to tighten monetary policy starting in June 2023, inflation began to rebound. Corporations faced increased production costs and working capital needs amidst favorable borrowing conditions.

The financial sector remained resilient despite facing challenges due to gradual simplification of macroprudential policies. However, rising expenditures and investments linked to earthquakes have implications for overall fiscal balances. Robust employment and wage growth continued in 2023, with unemployment decreasing.

Looking ahead, Türkiye is expected to experience a period of normalizing macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting confidence, mitigating macrofinancial risks, and supporting vulnerable sectors. This normalization may initially lead to a depreciated lira and slower economic growth as the economy adjusts to past imbalances. Commitment to tight monetary policy until inflation expectations stabilize will support confidence, but the disinflation process will be challenging.

The gradual adjustment of financial sector policies towards international standards will strengthen financial stability. A cautious and well-targeted fiscal policy is warranted given elevated investment needs and high inflation. There is an opportunity to consider structural reforms, potentially enhancing economic resilience.

Several risks could affect Türkiye's path of economic growth and poverty reduction. Fiscal risks accumulate due to earthquake-related expenditures, contingent liabilities, and wages. External imbalances persist despite a recovery in reserves, and global economic growth is projected to remain low with amplified geopolitical tensions. Slowing economic growth poses risks to poverty reduction over the medium term.

In summary, Türkiye faces a complex economic landscape characterized by a need for macroeconomic policy normalization, addressing fiscal vulnerabilities, navigating external challenges, and considering structural reforms to foster sustainable growth and poverty alleviation.

TÜRKİYE ECONOMICMONITOR March2024 PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized ONTHERIGHTTACK > Contents ExecutiveSummary10 I.TakingStock11 Türkiye’seconomicpoliciesbuiltonlowcostofborrowing,highinvestment,exportsandemployment deliveredstronggrowthperformanceinitially,buthadstartedlosingsteamandresultedinawidening11 currentaccountdeficitandveryhighinflation. 11 Theeconomyregisteredstronggrowthperformancein2022butthegrowthratesloweddowninthesecondhalfof2022andin2023. Thecurrentaccountdeficitincreasedrapidlyin2022andremainedlargein202313 Monetarypolicyremainedloosein2022andinthefirsthalfof2023,despitehighinflationandcontinuingliradepreciation,onlytobetightenedstartingfromJune2023. 14 15 18 BaseeffectsandpolicymeasureshelpedinflationeasefromitspeakinOctober2022untilJune2023,butinflationhasrecentlyrebounded Corporatesfacedrisingproductioncostsandworkingcapitalneedswhileenjoyinglowercostofborrowingin2022andinthefirsthalfof2023 18 20 Thefinancialsector,supportedbythegradualsimplificationofmacroprudentialpolicies,remainedresilientamidchallenges Therisingexpendituresandearthquakerelatedinvestmentneedshaveimplicationsonoverallfiscalbalances Robustemploymentandwagegrowthcontinuein2023withunemploymentdeclining21 II.LookingAhead24 A.Aperiodofthenormalizationofmacroeconomicpolicies24 Therecentstepstakentowardsnormalizationofmacroeconomicpoliciesareexpectedtoboostconfidence,mitigatemacrofinancialrisks,andsupportthevulnerable 24 25 27 Thepolicynormalizationwilllikelyinitiallyresultinaperiodofdepreciatedliraandslowereconomicgrowth,astheeconomycorrectstheimbalancesoftherecentpast Commitmenttotightmonetarypolicyuntilinflationexpectationsareanchoredwillsupportconfidence,butthedisinflationwillbechallenging. 28 Thegradualadjustmentoffinancialsectorpoliciestoreconvergetointernationalstandardswillstrengthenfinancialstability Elevatedinvestmentneedsandhighinflationwarrantacautiousandwelltargetedfiscalpolicy29 Anewwindowofopportunitytoconsiderstructuralreforms29 B.Severalriskscanaffectthepathofeconomicgrowthandpovertyreduction30 Fiscalrisksaccumulateonearthquakerelatedexpenditures,contingentliabilities,wages30 Externalimbalancescontinuedespitearecoveryinreserves31 Globaleconomyisonalow-growthtrajectorywithamplifiedgeopoliticaltensions.33 Slowingeconomicgrowthposesriskstopovertyreductioninthemediumterm.34 III.SpecialTopic35 CorporatevulnerabilityinTürkiyeandlinkagestofinancialsector35 References:40 Annex1:Medium-TermOutlook,Nominal41 Annex2:Medium-TermOutlook,PercentofGDP42 > Boxes Box1:Passthroughofshockstoinflation17 Box2:MeasuringtheinternationalreservepositionoftheCBRT32 > Figures Figure1:Economicactivityremainedrobustin2022H1,butsloweddownsince2022H212 Figure2:Themomentumofgrowthisvolatile12 Figure3:Servicessectoristhemaindriverofgrowth13 Figure4:Economicactivityhasslowedin2023H213 Figure5:Thecurrentaccountdeficitwidened14 Figure6:…onthebackofhighergoldimportsandcontractingmerchandiseexports14 15 Figure7:TheCentralBankstartedincreasingthepolicyratein2023Juneafteralong-lastedeasingcyclecausingarapidincreaseininflationandasignificantdeclineinrealrates Figure8:CPIinflationpeakedinOctober2022,easeduntilJune2023,butstartedtoincreaseagain16 Figure9:Thefoodandservicesinflationareparticularlyhigh16 Figure10:Exchangeratepass-throughtoCPIinflation17 Figure11:Pass-throughofshocktoCPIsubcomponents17 Figure12:Corporatesfacedhighercostofproduction…18 Figure13:…whileenjoyingnegativerealcostofborrowing18 Figure14:CARshaveimprovedrecently20 Figure15:SectorlevelNPLratioislow20 Figure16:Strongfiscalbalancehasbeendeteriorating…20 Figure17:…andprimarysurplusturnedintodeficit20 Figure18:Totalemploymentisatrecordlevels,whileunemploymentratesfelltolowestlevelssincemid-201321 Figure19:GrosswageshaveincreasedmorethanCPIinyoyterms21 Figure20:Povertycontinuedtodeclinein2021,incomeinequalityhasincreased22 Figure21:Theincomegrowthoftop10decilewasrelativelyhigherin202122 Figure22:Datt-Ravalliondecompositionofpovertyreduction(2020-2021)23 Figure23:Theshareofcasualemploymentisdeclining23 Figure24:Domesticdemandhasbeenthemaindriverofgrowth,andtoalesserextentinupcomingyears25 Figure25:Persistencyofinflationhasincreased27 Figure26:Even5-yearaheadinflationexpectationsarenotinsingledigits27 Figure27:Currencycompositionofgovernmentdebtposesrisks31 Figure28:Theshareofrigidexpendituresinthebudgetishigh31 Figure29:SwapsandFXrequiredreservesmakeupasignificantportionofforeigncurrencyreserves32 Figure30:Externalfinancingneedsareincreasinginthecomingmonths32 Figure31:GlobalIPslightlydecreasedinQ333 Figure32:Euroareaactivityisstillweak33 Figure33:Policyratesarerisinginadvancedeconomies34 Figure34:Oilpriceremainhigh34 Figure35:Interestcoverageandprofitabilityofcorporatesectorincreased35 Figure36:Corporatesectorhaslowereditsopenposition35 Figure37:Corporatevulnerabilityhasdeclined…36 F

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