热门搜索：

Lifting productivity in Oman: The Role of Structural Reforms

2024-06-13IMF喵***

LiftingproductivityinOman:TheRoleofStructuralReforms OMAN MuayadIsmailandHaytemTrougSIP/2024/020 IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember14,2023.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo24/032. 2024 JUN ©2024InternationalMonetaryFundSIP/2024/020 IMFSelectedIssuesPaper MiddleEastandCentralAsiaDepartment LiftingproductivityinOman:TheRoleofStructuralReformsPreparedbyMuayadIsmailandHaytemTroug* AuthorizedfordistributionbyCesarSerraJune2024 IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember14,2023.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasSelectedIssuesPaperCountryReportNo.24/032. ABSTRACT:Oman’spotentialnonhydrocarbonrealGDPgrowthhastrendeddownwardsincetheglobalfinancialcrisis,withanegativecontributionfromtotalfactorproductivity.ThispaperestimatesproductivitygainsassociatedwithstructuralreformsandidentifieskeybindingconstraintsandreformprioritiestoboostproductivityinOman.Ourresultsshowthatreformstoreducethestate’sfootprintandstrengtheninstitutions,aswellasproductmarketreforms,shouldbeprioritizedandpackagedtogethertomagnifyproductivitygainsfromlabormarketandfinancialsectorreforms.ThesefindingscouldinformtheplanningandimplementationoftheongoingstructuralreformagendaenvisagedunderOmanVision2040. RECOMMENDEDCITATION: Ismail,Muayad,andTroug,Haytem.2023."LiftingProductivityinOman:TheRoleofStructuralReforms." SelectedIssuesPaper.InternationalMonetaryFund(SIP2024/020) JELClassificationNumbers: J24,O14,O38,O40 Keywords: Economicdiversification,productivity,Oman,structuralreforms Author’sE-MailAddress: htroug@imf.org;mismail@imf.org *TheauthorswouldliketothankparticipantsfromtheCentralBankofOman,MinistryofFinanceandOmanVision2040followupunitatthe2023StaffVisitWorkshop,fortheirveryhelpfulsuggestionsandcomments,andDaliaAitaforexcellentresearchsupport. SELECTEDISSUESPAPERS LiftingproductivityinOman:TheRoleofStructuralReforms Oman A.Context 1.Omanhasmadesignificantstridesinadvancingeconomicdevelopmentandimprovinglivingstandards,butthehydrocarbonsectorcontinuestodominateeconomicactivity.Supportedbylargehydrocarbonproductionandfavorableoilprices,averageGDPpercapitainOmanincreasedfrom$7,700inthe1990sto$14,800inthe2000sandfurtherto$20,700inthe2010s.Nevertheless,thehydrocarbonsectorcontinuestodominateeconomicactivity,whilenonhydrocarbonactivitiesremainsubjecttofluctuationsinoilpricesandarehamperedbylowproductivity.Theshareofhydrocarbonexportsintotalexportsremainslargeatabout65percent,andhydrocarbonactivitiesconstitutedmorethan37percentoftotaloutputin2022.Atthesametime,productivitytrendshavebeendeclining,reflectingalargelysegmentedlabormarket,withnegativeimplicationsfornonhydrocarbongrowth. 2.Omanisstrivingtodiversifyitseconomyandstrengthennonhydrocarbongrowth.Thesevereshocksinoilmarkets(2014–15and2020)andtheenergytransitionaheadhaveraisedtheurgencyofacceleratingtheimplementationofacomprehensivereformagendatocreateamoreresilienteconomythatislessdependentonhydrocarbonwindfalls.Inthiscontext,theauthoritiesdesignedabroad-rangingeconomicstrategy,OmanVision2040,withnumerousinitiativestostrengtheneconomicresilienceandlaythefoundationsfordiversifiedandsustainableprivatesector-ledgrowth.Structuralreformsinkeyareas—suchasthebusinessenvironment,labormarkets,socialprotection,andthefinancialsector—areongoing,withseveralattheimplementationstage. 3.ThispaperassesseskeybindingproductivityconstraintsandidentifiesstructuralreformprioritiesthatcanhelpboostproductivityandpotentialnonhydrocarbonGDPgrowthinOman.Todoso,itestimatespotentialproductivitygainsfromstructuralreformsovertheshorttomediumtermandexaminesappropriatepackagingandsequencingofsuchreformstomagnifyproductivityandgrowthdividends.Thispaperisstructuredasfollows.SectionIIprovidesselectedstylizedfactsontheOmaninonhydrocarboneconomyandproductivitytrends.SectionIIIempiricallyestimatesproductivitygainsfromimplementingstructuralreformsunderdifferentscenarios.Finally,policyrecommendationsarediscussedinsectionIV. B.StylizedFacts 4.NonhydrocarbonrealGDPgrowthinOmanhasbeenstronglycorrelatedwithgovernmentspendingandexhibitedhighoilprice-drivenvolatility.GovernmentexpenditureshavebeenOman’smainengineofgrowth,withsignificantspilloverstononhydrocarbonactivities.Specifically,whilegovernmentinvestmentexpenditurehasplayedamoredirectroleinsupportingnonhydrocarbonactivitiesinOman(mainlythroughconstructionandinfrastructureprojects),governmentspendingonwagesandsubsidieshasalsocontributedtostimulatingaggregatedemandandnonhydrocarbonoutput.Nonhydrocarbongrowthhasbeenexposedtohighvolatilityinoilpricesthroughgovernmentspending.Thisunderscorestheneedtopressaheadwithstructuralreformstoboostprivatesector-ledgrowthtostrengthenthesustainabilityandresilienceofnonhydrocarbongrowthandmitigateanypotentialnegativespilloversfromtheongoingefforts

点击免费查看完整报告

你可能感兴趣

The Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean

IMF2020-09-25

Synthetic controls with machine learning: application on the effect of labour deregulation on worker productivity in Brazil

BIS2024-04-26

Lifting productivity in Oman: The Role of Structural Reforms

你可能感兴趣

The Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean

Synthetic controls with machine learning: application on the effect of labour deregulation on worker productivity in Brazil

Monitoring State Implementation of the Affordable Care Act in 10 States: Early Market Reforms

Baseline Report of the Fifth Round of Monitoring of Anti-Corruption Reforms in Mongolia

Baseline Report of the Fifth Round of Monitoring of Anti-Corruption Reforms in Tajikistan