供暖与执法（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10776 HeatandLawEnforcement A.PatrickBehrerValentinBolotnyy DevelopmentEconomicsDevelopmentResearchGroupMay2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10776 Abstract UsingadministrativecriminalrecordsfromTexas,thispapershowshowhightemperaturesaffectthedecisionmakingofpoliceofficers,prosecutors,andjudges.Itfindsthatpolicereducethenumberofarrestsmadeperreportedcrimeonthehottestdaysandthatarrestsmadeonthesedaysaremorelikelytobedismissedincourt.Forprosecutors,hightemperatureonthedaytheyannouncecriminalcharges doesnotappeartoaffectthenatureandseverityofthecharges.However,judgesdismissfewercases,issuelongerprisonsentences,andlevyhigherfineswhenrulingonhotdays.Theresultssuggestthatthepsychologicalandcogni-tiveconsequencesofexposuretohightemperatureshavemeaningfulconsequencesforcriminaldefendantsastheyinteractwiththecriminaljusticesystem. ThispaperisaproductoftheDevelopmentResearchGroup,DevelopmentEconomics.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatabehrer@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam Heat,Crime,andPunishment∗ A.PatrickBehrer1,2andValentinBolotnyy3 1TheWorldBank 2StanfordUniversity,CenterforFoodSecurityandtheEnvironment 3StanfordUniversity,HooverInstitution JELCodes:Q5,H75,K42,D91. Keywords:Climatechange,CriminalJustice,Judges,Heat ∗WethankAlexBunin,IshanNath,JisungPark,MarshallBurke,NataliaEmanuel,RebeccaGoldstein,AdrienneHarrold,PeterHong,andWallisNader,aswellasmembersofBurkeLab,participantsinthe 2021LAGVconference,the2021N.AmericanUrbanEconomicsAssociationmeeting,andUCLA’sClimateAdaptationResearchSymposiumfortheirassistanceandsuggestions.WearealsogratefultoRobinRobinsonforherexcellentresearchassistance.ThestudywasapprovedbyStanfordUniversity’sInstitutionalReviewBoardasProtocol56777.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. 1Introduction Heatincreasescriminalactivity.Thisfacthasbeenestablishedbyawideliteratureacrossfields,includingpsychology,economics,andpoliticalscience.Individualcriminalactivityincreasesonhotterdays(Ranson,2014)andintra-groupconflictincreaseswithincreasesinheat(Burkeetal.,2015).Whatdrivestheincreaseininterpersonalconflict,andindividuals’commissionofcrimesinparticular,remainsunclear. Variousexplanationsfortheeffectofheatoncrimehavebeenoffered.EarlyeconomicsworkusesaBecker-stylemodeltofocusonpotentialreductionsinthelikelihoodofbeingcaught,becauseheatincreasesthecostsofpoliceeffort,orontheincreasedrelativebenefitsofcrimeduetoheat-drivenreductionsineconomicpayoffsfromotheractivities.Workinpsychology,meanwhile,hasfocusedontheroleofheatinmediatingaggressivebehavior(Anderson,1989;Andersonetal.,2000;BaronandBell,1976).Morerecenteconomicsworkhasalsoexaminedhowtheimpactofheatoncrimevariesacrossneighborhoodcharacteristics -heatappearstohavelargerimpactsinolderandpoorerneighborhoods-tosuggestthatheat’sdifferentialeffectsmaybeamanifestationofdifferentialinvestmentinearlychildhoodcoupledwithunderlyingpsychologicalmechanisms(HeilmannandKahn,2019). Aclearimplicationofapsychologicalexplanationfortheincreaseincrimeonhotterdaysisthatheatmaynotonlyimpactpotentialcriminaldefendantsbutalsothepolicechargedwitharrestingthem,theprosecutorsresponsibleforprosecutingthem,andthejudgeswhoultimatelypresideovertheirtrials.Despitetherobustliteratureonheatandcrime,therehasbeenmuchlessattentiongiventohowheatimpactsthewholerangeofactorsinthejudicialsystem.Threerecentpapersworktoaddressthisgap:Obradovichetal.(2018)suggestthatheatcanreducepoliceeffortand?findthatpolicedonotcommitmorefatalshootingsduetoheat.Studyingimmigrationjudges,HeyesandSaberian(2019)measureadeclineinasylumgrantswhenjudgesissuedecisionsonhotdays. Inthispaper,were-examinethequestionofheat’simpactoncriminalactivityusingthemostcomprehensivedatasetyetbroughttobearonthistopic.Usingdataontheuniverseofmorethan10millionarrestsacrossthestateofTexasfrom2010to2017,withcomprehensivedataonthesubsequentprosecutionandtrialsofthesearrests,weexaminehowheatimpactsthecommissionofcrimesandthedefendants’subsequentjudicialoutcom