确保所有巴基斯坦儿童平等起步：代价是什么？（英）

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10763 EnsuringanEqualStartforAllPakistaniChildren WhatWillItCost? AbdullahAlamAmerHasanElizabethHentschel PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized EducationGlobalPracticeMay2024 Averifiedreproducibilitypackageforthispaperisavailableathttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefordirectaccess. PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10763 Abstract Qualityearlychildhoodeducationimproveschildhooddevelopmentoutcomesandhaslong-termimplicationsforschoolreadiness,workforceparticipation,andeconomicgrowth.Despitethis,inPakistan,thenetenrollmentrateofchildrenages3to5inearlychildhoodeducationwasonly31percentin2022.Thispaperestimatesthecostofexpand-ingaccesstoearlychildhoodeducationusinganadaptedversionoftheearlychildhoodeducationAcceleratorCost-ingandSimulationmodel.Usingavailableadministrativedata,thepaperpresentscostestimatesforthreepackages: (i)abusiness-as-usualpackage,(ii)acoreservicedeliverypackage,and(iii)anaugmentedservicedeliverypackage.Itconsidershowthesecostsmightvaryusingalternate deliverymechanisms,suchascommunityconstructionandvouchers.Toensure100percentnetenrollmentinearlychildhoodeducationby2035,Pakistanmustincreasetheamountoftheeducationbudgetspentonearlychild-hoodeducationfromtheexistingallocationof5.3percentto10.4percentby2035.ThismeansincreasingtheearlychildhoodeducationbudgetfromPKR71billion(US$0.3billion)in2022toPKR418billion(US$1.85billion)in2035,suggestinganaverageannualincreaseof14percent.Usingalternatedeliverymechanisms,suchascommunityconstructionandvouchers,therequiredbudgetcanbereducedtoPKR311billion(US$1.37billion)in2035. N I K R O W S R E P A P TRANSPARENT ANALYSIS G E S E A R C H P O L I C Y R ThispaperisaproductoftheEducationGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatahasan1@worldbank.org.Averifiedreproducibilitypackageforthispaperisavailableathttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefordirectaccess. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam EnsuringanEqualStartforAllPakistaniChildren:WhatWillItCost? AbdullahAlamAmerHasanElizabethHentschel Keywords:earlychildhoodeducation,Pakistan,costofuniversalaccessJELClassifications:H52,I10 AflatounInternationalandEducationGlobalPractice,SouthAsiaRegion,WorldBank. EducationGlobalPractice,SouthAsiaRegion,WorldBank. HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealthandEducationGlobalPractice,SouthAsiaRegion,WorldBank. Introduction Approximately20millionschool-agedchildreninPakistandidnotattendschoolin2021(PakAllianceforMathsandScience,2021).LearningpovertyinPakistanisalsoextremelyhigh,estimatedtobe78percentfor10-year-oldchildren(WorldBank,processed).Lowparticipationinpre-primaryeducationhasmajorimplicationsforhumancapitaldevelopment,productivity,andskillacquisition(Hollaetal.,2021).ResearchsuggeststhattheavailabilityofqualityeducationintheearlyyearscouldbeonepathwayforcountriestoachieveSDG-4targetsandtacklechallengessuchaspooraccesstoeducation,retentioninschool,andmarginalization(Radetal.,2022).However,thenetenrollmentrateofchildrenaged3-5inearlychildhoodeducation(ECE)wasonly31percentin2022inPakistan(Tomlinsonetal.,2023)–farshortoftheSDG4.2targetofuniversalaccesstoqualitypre-primaryeducation.IfPakistanfailstoclosetheuniversalECEcoveragegap,eachconsecutivecohortremainingatthepresentenrollmentratewillcostPakistan 3.4percentofitsGDP(Tomlinsonetal.,2023). Datalimitationsdonotallowrealisticplanninganddecision-makingfortheECEsub-sectorinPakistan’seducationsystem.TherearecurrentlynomechanismsinplacetorecordthebudgetaryallocationsandspendingonECEinfederalorprovincialbudgets.Pre-primaryandprimaryeducationbudgetsarecombinedintoonebudgetandcannotbedisaggregated. Cognizantofthecostofinaction,PakistaniscommittedtoexpandingECEservicesforallchildren.Todoso,itisimperativetohavearobuststrategicplaninplacethatreliesonarealisticunderstandingoftheexistinginvestmentsinpre-primaryeducationandscenariosforadditionalinvestmentsintheupcomingyears. Despitethegapsinexistingdata,therearemechanismsthroughwhichthisinformationgapcanbefilledintheshorttomediumtermuntilsuchsystemsaredevelopedandimplemented.Thispaperisoneattempttofillthisinformationgap.ItpresentsasimulationexerciseusinganadaptedversionoftheECEAcceleratorCostingandSimulationModel1tooutlinetheECEcosts,financinggap,and