Climate Adaptation in Uzbekistan

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized ClimateAdaptationinUzbekistan: LandscapeRestoration Opportunities April2024 MINISTRYOFECOLOGY,ENVIRONMENTALPROTECTIONANDCLIMATECHANGEOFTHEREPUBLICOFUZBEKISTAN ©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW WashingtonDC20433Telephone:202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org ThisworkisaproductofthestaffoftheWorldBankGroupwithexternalcontributors.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformationorliabilityconcerningtheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesoftheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesthedisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven. Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:WorldBank.2024.ClimateAdaptationinUzbekistan:LandscapeRestorationOpportunities.Washington,DC:WorldBank. Allqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;email:pubrights@worldbank.org. Coverphoto:EldarKarimov,GettyImages. MINISTRYOFECOLOGY,ENVIRONMENTALPROTECTIONANDCLIMATECHANGEOFTHEREPUBLICOFUZBEKISTAN ClimateAdaptationinUzbekistan: LandscapeRestorationOpportunities April2024 Contents Acknowledgmentsiv Acronymsv Abstractvi ExecutiveSummary1 1.Introduction6 1.1.ContextandBackground6 1.2.ReportObjective6 1.3.Methodology7 2.Uzbekistan’sLandUseandClimateRiskOutlook uptotheMid-Century9 2.1.FutureHotspotsofLandDegradationand ClimateRisks9 2.1.1.ClimateRisk9 2.1.2.FutureLandDegradationRisk11 2.1.3.NaturalHazardRisks12 2.1.4.PopulationPressureRisk13 2.2.Multi-CriteriaFutureHotspotsof Land-RelatedRisks14 3.SectoralClimateandLandDegradationImpact16 3.1.ImpactonAgricultureandForest16 3.2.ImpactonHydropower17 3.3.ImpactonHealth18 4.TheCostofInactiononLandDegradation19 4.1.Croplands20 4.2.Pasturelands20 4.3.Forests20 4.4.Water21 5.ThePotentialofClimate-SmartTechnologiesforAdaptationthroughResilientLandscape Restoration22 5.1.CropProductionTechnologies22 5.2.Grazinglandtechnologies23 5.3.Forestlandscaperestorationtechnologies23 5.4.Farm-LevelWaterManagementTechnologies23 5.5.FloodsandLandslidesPreventionTechnologies24 6.FutureHotspotsofAdaptationOpportunity: TwoPortfoliosofInvestments25 6.1.ErosionControl:FutureOpportunityScore25 6.2.WaterRegulationFutureOpportunityScore26 6.3.SlopeStabilityandLandslideMitigation: FutureOpportunityScore26 6.4.CarbonStorageFutureAdaptationOpportunityHotspots27 7.Multi-CriteriaFutureHotspotsofAdaptation Opportunity28 7.1.FeasibilityoftheLandscapeRestoration: TwoPortfolios28 7.2.CostsofAction(Investments)andBenefit: CostAnalysis30 7.2.1.CostsofAction31 7.2.2.BenefitsofActionandBenefit-CostRatio31 8.BringingItAllTogether:RecommendationsforLandInvestmentstoRestoreEcosystemServices andLivelihoodsinUzbekistan33 8.1.PrioritizingInvestmentsforLandscape Restoration34 8.2.MobilizingFinanceforLandscapeRestoration35 9.Conclusion38 Bibliography39 Annexes Annex1.MethodstoAssessDriversofChange andIdentifyHotspotsofLandDegradation42 Annex2.MethodstoModelEcosystemServicesandIdentifyHotspotsofAdaptationOpportunity46 Annex3.DescriptionofData,Assumptions,andProceduresUsedinEstimationofEcosystemServicesLosttoLandDegradation54 Annex4.DetailedResultsofCost-BenefitAnalysis ofLandscapeRestoration66 ListofFigures Figure1.TotallandareaofUzbekistanpershare oflandtype6 Figure2.Schematicofthemodelingapproach7 Figure3.Temperatureandprecipitationprojected forUzbekistanunderarangeofclimatescenarios10 Figure4.Componentsofthecompositeclimate changeriskscore11 Figure5.Distributionofdistrict-levelclimatechange riskscoresuntilthemiddleofthecentury11 Figure6.TrendsinGPPnationwide,basedon2000–2020,projectedtomid-centuryasgain/loss inkgofcarbonperm2everyyear12 Figure7.Landslideriskscoresbymid-centurybasedonslopestabilitymodel13 Figure8.Populationdensityprojectedto203514 Figure8a.TrendinPopulationDensityby2050, basedon2000–2020trends14 Contents Figure9.Compositemaphighlightinghotspotsofriskfromclimatechange,landdegradation,natural hazards,andpopulationpressuresinUzbekistan14 Figure10.Integratedtechnologicalsuiteforresilient landscaperestoration23 Figure11.Erosioncontrolopportunitysc