2024 年全球和区域食品工业展望

May2024 GlobalFoodIndustryOutlook2024/2025 CONTENTS Contents Productionisgrowingandconsumerpricesaredecreasing,butchallengesremain Whatistheregionaloutlookforfoodandbeveragesperformance?Whatrisksdoesthisyear’sElNiñoposetotheindustry? Howarechangingconsumerhabitsimpactingtheindustry?Howhaveincreasedinputcostsimpactedtheindustry? Financialresilienceandcreditrisk Arelabourshortagesaffectingtheindustry? Foodandbeverages|Topthreeopportunitiesandchallengesoverthenextfiveyears 3 5 8 9 10 13 14 17 OurTradeSectorExperts TheAmericas:SelmaRossato TeamLeaderofAtradiusRiskServices SelmaisTeamLeaderofRiskServicesinBrazil,whereherexpertiseextendsacrossmostindustries.BasedinSãoPaulo,shebeganhercareerwithAtradiusasacreditmanagerandhasbeenworkinginRiskServicesforAtradiussince2008.Selmahasmorethan20years’experienceintheBraziliancreditinsurancemarket. Asia-Pacific:ShaneTan AssociateSeniorUnderwriteratAtradiusAsia ShaneisAssociateSeniorUnderwriteratAtradiusAsia,apositionhehasheldsince2021.BasedinSingapore,heiscurrentlyresponsiblefortheFood,ICT,RubberandScientificInstrumentsectorsinSingapore,MalaysiaandPhilippines.PriortoAtradius,ShaneworkedasCreditManagerintheCreditOperationsdepartmentofDaimlerFinancialServices.Thispositionincludedunderwritingconstructionbuyers,projectmanagementandmanagementreporting. Europe:YoannGublin DeputyIndustryLeaderofAgriculture,RetailandServices YoannisDeputyIndustryLeaderofAgriculture,RetailandServices,basedinParis. HisexpertiseincludesaparticularfocusontheagricultureandagrifoodsectorsinFrance.YoannjoinedAtradiusin2014,workinginitiallyasaSeniorUnderwriterspecialisinginAgriculture,Food,ChemicalsandTextiles,beforehewasappointedDeputyIndustryLeaderofAgriculture,RetailandServicesin2020. Productionisgrowingandconsumerpricesaredecreasing,butchallengesremain Ourbasicneedtoeatunderpinsthefoodandbeverage industry,insulatingitagainstsomeofdifficultiesfacedbysectorstradinginnon-essentialgoods.Thisisnottosaythattheindustryistotallyprotectedagainsteconomicdownturns.Demandforluxuriesandnon-essentialfoodanddrinkitemsdecreasedlastyearasconsumerstriedtobalancehouseholdbudgetsagainstthecostsofhigh inflationandincreasesintheirinterestratepayments. Mostindicatorssuggesttheworstisnowbehindus, withdisinflationinthecomingmonthslikelytoresultinadecreaseininputcostsforproducersandfood pricesforconsumers.However,theindustry’sgrowthjourneyisunlikelytobesmooth.Geopoliticalandclimaterisksthreatentoslowindustrygrowth,especiallyin thesegmentsandgeographiesthataremostexposed. Whatistheglobaloutlookforthefoodandbeveragesindustry? Growthpredictionsforthefoodanddrinkindustryarenotoriouslytricky,withunpredictableweatherconditionsdisruptingeventhemostcautiouslycraftedoutlook.Withthatdisclaimerinmind,weanticipateglobalfoodandbeveragesproductiontoincrease3.2%thisyear,followedby3.3%in2025.Foodpricesforconsumersareexpectedtoease,althoughthisislikelytobegentle. 3.33.5 3.2 1.6 4.2 Globalfoodandbeverageskeyfigures 2022 2023 2024* 2025* 6.3 5.5 5.8 5.1 3.3 2.1 2.82.8 1.81.8 1.0 PRODUCTIONINDEX GROSSOUTPUT(SALES),(REAL,USD) INVESTMENT GROSSOPERATINGSURPLUS(PROFITS),NOMINALUSD (REAL,USD) Year-on-year,%change.(*forecast)Source:OxfordEconomics. 23 ATRADIUSGLOBALFOODINDUSTRYOUTLOOK2024/2025ATRADIUSGLOBALFOODINDUSTRYOUTLOOK2024/2025 Whatistheregionaloutlookforfoodandbeveragesperformance? CloudingtheoutlookareElNiño,thewarinUkraine,theIsrael-HamasconflictandtheHouthiattacksoncontainershipsintheRedSeacorridor. ElNiñousuallylastsaroundayearandtypicallycauseshot,dryweatheracrossAsiaandAustraliawhilebringingheavier-than-normalrainfalltothesouthernU.S.andsouthernSouthAmerica.Poorharvestsorinterruptedsupplies couldputpressureonprices.Despitetherecentdecrease, globalfoodpriceswillstayabove2019levels.Costdriversincludethehighlevelsofenergyprices,transportandlabourcosts,andelevatedloancosts. Inaddition,thegeopoliticalconflictscouldcausemarketinstabilityespeciallyiftheyleadtoenergyandfoodpriceshocks.Thiscouldraiseinputcostsforproducersandresultinfoodpriceinflationforconsumers. TheAmericas NorthAmerica SelmaRossatoisaTeamLeaderofAtradiusRiskServicesinSãoPaulo,Brazil.LookingatthetheNorthAmericanfoodmarketshesays:“FollowingnearlyfouryearsofsignificanteconomicdisruptionledbytheCOVID-19pandemicandfollowedbysupplychainchallenges, labourshortagesandaperiodofsevereinflation,therearesignstheNorthAmericanfoodandbeveragemarketmaybereturningtoamorestableenvironment.” Therearesignsthe NorthAmericanmarketmay bereturningtoamorestableenvironment. SelmaRossato Thatsaid,untilrecentlyUSinflationhasremainedstubbornlyhigh,despitetheinterventionsoftheFederalReserve.Theresultingeffectishigherfoodpricesforlonger,withtightmarginsforretailersastheyincreasinglyrelyonpromotionsastheycompeteforcustomers. What’smorethedisruptiveeffectsofElNiñoarelikelytoimpact2024foodproductionintheUS,whilelabour,logisticsandfinancingcostshavealsoincreased.Allthisweighs onthemarginsandprofitabilityofbusinessesallalongthefoodsupplychaininNorthAmerica.TheoutlookforMexicoisfairlypositive,witheasingpric