2024年全球药物使用情况（英）

Webinar:TheGlobalUseofMedicines2024 Afewimportantnotesandremindersbeforewebegin: Q&A Enlargeliveview Frozenscreen Downloadresources Viewon-demand YoumayaskaquestionatanytimebyclickingontheQ&Aiconandsubmitting. Foranenhancedview,clickthesmallboxlocatedinthegrayframeabovetheslidewindow. Ifyouarenotseeingtheslidesatanypoint,pleaserefreshyourbrowser. Findtheresourcelistlocatedatthebottomofyourscreen. Thewebinarisbeingrecordedandwillbeavailableon-demandatthesamelinkafterthelivesession. 0 TheGlobalUseofMedicines2024 OUTLOOKTO2028 31January2024 Copyright©2024IQVIA.Allrightsreserved.IQVIA®isaregisteredtrademarkofIQVIAInc.intheUnitedStatesandvariousothercountries. Agenda +9:00–9:05a.m.WelcomeandIntroductions MurrayAitken,ExecutiveDirectorIQVIAInstituteforHumanDataScience +9:05–9:30a.m.Globaloutlookanddrivers MichaelKleinrock,ResearchDirectorIQVIAInstituteforHumanDataScience +9:30–10:20a.m.Regionalhighlights •UnitedStates–ElyseMuñoz •Europe,MiddleEast,Africa–SarahRickwood •China–HowardChen •Japan–AlanThomas •LatinAmerica–SydneyClark +10:20–10:30a.m.Moderateddiscussion +10:30a.m.Close2 Speakers HowardChenManagingPrincipalIQVIAChina SydneyClark VP,ConsultingServicesIQVIALATAM ElyseMuñozDirector,ThoughtLeadershipIQVIAU.S. SarahRickwood VP,ThoughtLeadershipIQVIAEMEA AlanThomasSeniorDirector,ThoughtLeadershipIQVIAJapan MurrayAitkenExecutiveDirectorIQVIAInstituteforHumanDataScience MichaelKleinrockResearchDirectorIQVIAInstituteforHumanDataScience 3 Globaloutlookanddrivers 4 Globalspending,includingCOVID-19vaccinesandtherapeutics,isforecasttoexceedpre-pandemicoutlookby$1.2Tnto2028 SpendingoutlookchangeduetoCOVID-19: $1,203Bn,2020–2028 = 0 IncrementalspendforCOVID-19vaccines&therapeuticsCurrentoutlookexcludingCOVIDvaccines Pre-COVID-19outlook 29 13 12 0 12 13 0 0 83 28 2,238 1,985 2,107 0 3 116 1,446 1,868 1,607 1,736 0 1,485 0 ChangesinthehistoricalandprojectedglobalmedicinespendingmodelduetoCOVID-19,2019–2028,US$Bn 1,271 1,306 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 +12 +12 +12 +11 +11 Cumulativedifference,US$Billion 468 + COVID-19therapeutics: $96Billion($85-115Bn) 670617 COVID-19vaccinespending: $213Bn($190–$230Bn) 913894 1,203 +11 +11 103151 126 167 186 184 306 191 196 386 198 205 91 213 + COVID-19disruptionimpact: +$894Bn2020–2028 96 0 +11 -62 3 -59-53 1666 51 -75 6347758186 -44 2019202020212022202320242025202620272028 Cumulativedifferenceinnon-COVIDspendingfrompre-COVID-19levelsCumulativeCovid-19vaccinespending CumulativeCOVID-19therapeuticsTotalcumulativedifferencefrompre-COVID-19levels Globalmarketgrowthwillsignificantlyexceedthepre-pandemicoutlookevenasCOVID-19vaccineandtherapeuticusagedeclines Comparisonofcurrentoutlooktopre-COVID-19outlook 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Constantdollargrowthforecast(invoice) 3 IncrementalCOVID-relatedusagefortreatmentsandvaccines 2 Post-pandemicvolumerebound 4 Sustainedrecovery 1 Demandimpactduringpandemic 2019202020212022202320242025202620272028 Keyeventsintheoutlook 12020:Growth-3.0%slowerthanpre-pandemicprojection(~$39Bn) 22021:+14.2%highergrowthincludingvaccinesandtherapeuticscomparedtospendingwithoutthem 32022/3:COVIDvaccineandtherapeuticusehasslowed,resultinginlowergrowth 4Sustainedrecoveryofmarketwilldrivelong-termgrowth1-2%higherthanthepre-pandemicoutlook Pre-COVID-19outlook CurrentoutlookexcludingCOVID-19vaccines&therapeutics CurrentoutlookincludingincrementalspendonCOVID-19vaccines&therapeutics PercapitauseofmedicinesvariesbyGDPwithuseinhigherincomecountriestypicallyhigherthaninlowerincomeones Defineddailydoses(DDD)percapitabyregioncomparedtopercapitagrossdomesticproductPPP,currentinternationaldollars Japan WesternEurope LatinAmerica EasternEurope NorthAmerica Asia-Pacific India China Sizeofbubble:Total2023DDDs 500Bn 250Bn 100Bn Africa&MiddleEast 1,400 1,200 DDDpercapita2023 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000 GDPPPPpercapita2023(currentinternationaldollars) Source:IQVIAInstitute,Dec2023;TheWorldBank,Jul2023;InternationalMonetaryFund,Oct2023. Theglobalmedicinemarket—usinginvoicepricelevels—isexpectedtogrowat5–8%CAGRthrough2028toabout$2.3Tn Globalmedicinemarketsizeandgrowth2014–2028includingestimatedCOVIDvaccineandtherapeuticspending 2,500 Forecast 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 25% 2,00020% SpendingUS$Bn %GrowthConstantUS$ 1,50015% 1,00010% 5005% 0% GlobalSpendingUS$Bn%GrowthConstantUS$ Source:IQVIAMarketPrognosis,Sep2023;IQVIAInstitute,Dec2023. Spendingandvolumegrowtharefollowingdivergingtrendsbyregion Spendingandvolumegrowthbyregion India Aboveaveragevolumeandspendinggrowththrough2028 Asia-Pacific Spendinggrowththrough2028expectedtobehigh,drivenby'mix'(wideruseofnoveldrugsathigheraverageprices) EasternEurope NorthAmerica LatinAmerica WesternEurope Africa&MiddleEast Belowaveragevolumeandspendinggrowththrough2028 Japan 60% 2024–2028PercentspendinggrowthconstantUS$ 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% C