A sustainable transition to industrialized housing construction

ASUSTAINABLETRANSITIONTOINDUSTRIALIZED HOUSINGCONSTRUCTIONINDEVELOPINGECONOMIES Foreword Prof.Dr.DanielM.Hall AssistantProfessorofInnovativeandIndustrialConstructionETHZurich Globalcitiesarerapidlyurbanizing.Thedemandforurbanhousingisgreaterthaneverbefore.Approximately200,000peoplealreadyrelocatetourbancenterseachday*.By2030,anestimated60%ofhumanitywillliveinurbanareas.Asurbanpopulationincreases,sowilltheneedforhousing.Bytheendofthecentury,wewill needabout2billionnewhomes.Inparticular,developingeconomieswillfeelthegreatestimpactofurbangrowth.Inthenextdecade,emergingmarketscananticipateaconstructiongrowthrateestimatedat65%*. Atthesametime,constructionofurbanhousinganditsassociatedinfrastructurewillsignificantlydepleteglobalresourcesunlesswecanrethinkourcurrentprocessesandmaterials.Theconstructionindustryisthelargestglobalconsumerofmaterialresources.Indevelopedeconomies,theconstructionindustryisnotoriouslypooratresourcemanagement.Forexample,intheUnitedStates,50milliontonsofnewandvirginconstructionmaterials–theequivalentofroughly50Boeing747jumbojets–arediscardedintolandfills.Thesearewastedmaterialsfromtheprocessofconstruction,wastethatisnotevenpartofanactualbuilding. Wehavetodobetter.Withoutrethinkingexistingmethodsandsystemsofconstruction,thebuildingoffutureurbancitiesindevelopingmarketswillaccelerateourworldpastacceptablethresholdsofresourceusage. Asdescribedinthefollowingreport,weseeindustrializedconstruction(IC)asonepotentialalternativetodesign,manufacture,andassemblestructuresmoreefficiently. *https://www.weforum.org/projects/future-of-construction Thefollowinganalysisandcasestudyexamplessuggestourperspectiveonhowindustrializedconstructioncanmakeameaningfuldifferenceforfutureglobalhousing.Atthesametime,werecognizethatthetopicofhousingisnotaneasysubject.Aconversationabouthousingalsoisaconversationaboutequityandpolitics,abouteconomicsandurbanplanning,andaboutarchitectureandtechnicalimplementations.Housingconstructionspansthetensionoflocalculturesandglobalsupplychains.Thefullenvironmental,societal,andpoliticalimplicationsofintroducingindustrializationintodevelopingeconomiesarenotyetclear. Nonetheless,thisreportismeanttoengageintheconversationaboutmeetingtheglobaldemandforhousingwithinthematerialandenvironmentallimitsofourplanet.Tothisend,wethinkindustrializedconstructionhasanimportantfuturerole. Foreword RichardBoydSeniorEngineerArup Theurbanpopulationsarepredictedtogrowby2.4billionby2050,a64%increase.Thenewconstructiondemandedbythisgrowthwillbesignificant–someestimatessuggestthetotalglobalfloorareadoublinginthesameperiod.Atthesametime,thebuiltenvironmentmustlargelydecarbonise.Resolvingthetensionbetweenthesetwomegatrendsisthedefiningchallengeofthisgenerationofbuiltenvironmentprofessionals. Mostglobalconstructionpracticeistypifiedbyrelianceonlow-skilledmanuallabourandlimiteduseoftechnology,creatingbuildingswhichperformpoorlyintermsofsafety,resilience,comfortandenvironmentalimpact.Thesechallengesareparticularlyacuteinlow-andlowermiddle-incomecountries,wheremostofthegrowthmentionedabovewilltakeplace. Therapidupscalingofcapacitytomeetdemandrequirestheconstructionindustriesintheseregionstoradicallytransformthemselves.Thistransformation,alreadyunderwaybutmaturinginthenextdecade,givesa once-in-a-centuryopportunitytoavoidthemisstepsandchallengesofconstructioninhigherincomecountries,byconsciouslychoosinganalternativedevelopmentpath. Theconceptofindustrializedconstructionhasthepotentialtobethemodelforthatalternative developmentpath.Itdescribesanapproachwherebysafetyisimproved(bothinuseandduringconstruction),resilienceisincreased,skillsareenhanced,wasteisreducedandenvironmentalimpactsaremitigated,whilealsoprovidingrapidgrowthincapacitytomeetdemand. Yetthereislittleworkintheliteratureexaminingcurrentimplementationofindustrializedconstructioninrapidlyurbanizinggeographies,noronthecomparativeenvironmentalimpactofindustrializedversusconventionalconstructionintheselocations. Thispaperthereforemakesatimelyandvaluablecontributiontooneofthemostimportantandpressingtopicsfordiscussionwhenconsideringthefutureoftheglobalbuiltenvironment.Byexaminingcurrentimplementation,assessingenvironmentalimpactandanalysingfactorsinfluencingfutureadoption,itlaysthegroundworkforprivatesectordevelopmentplansfortheconstructionsectioninAddisAbaba,CapeTownandNairobi,threeofthemostimportantmarketsforbuiltenvironmentgrowthinthenext30years.Irecommendittopolicymakersanddesigners,investors andconstructionclients,manufacturersandcontractorsoperatinginthesecitiesandinthewiderregion,andlookforwardtoparticipatinginconversationitwillinevitablyinspire. PROJECTTEAM AUTHORS: FirehiwotKedir,leadresearcher,kedir@ibi.baug.ethz.ch TylerPullen,researchassociate,tpullen@stanford.alumni.edu Prof.Dr.DanielM.Hall,principalinvestigator,hall@ibi.baug.ethz.chRichardBoyd,Arupprojectmanager,Richard.boyd@arup.com JodaSilva,Arupprojectdirector,Jo.da-Silva@arup.com CONTRIBUTORS: ThomasRupper,rupperth@student.ethz.chMarcoZumstein,marcozu@student.ethz.chTimothyPartl,tpartl@stu