East Africa sustainable timber construction: supply and demand study

EastAfricasustainabletimberconstructionSupplyanddemandstudy Decarbonisingtheconstructionboom Findoutmore ThisistheshortversionoftheEastAfricasustainabletimberconstructionsupplyanddemandstudy.Todiscussthisreportorforacopyofthelongerversionwithfurtherdetailsonthemethodology,scenarios,residentialtypologystudy, thesupplyanddemandmodelcontactCarolineRaycaroline.ray@arup.com. By2050onebillionadditionalpeoplewillliveinAfricancities,allofwhomneeddecent housing,schoolsandplacestowork.IftheParisAgreementtolimittheworld’stemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevelsistobemet,arangeofsolutionsareurgentlyrequiredtodecarbonisethecomingconstructionboom. Asanaturallowcarbonmaterial,therolethattimbercanplayinplaceofcarbonintensivematerialssuchassteelandconcreteisgainingincreasedattention.Arecentstudy1suggestedthathousing90%oftheworld’sgrowingurbanpopulationinmid-risewoodenbuildingscouldprevent106bntonsofcarbonemissionsby2100.Thisisequivalenttothelast20yearsofUSAcarbonemissions. Materialswitchingonthisscalewouldcreateunprecedentednewdemandfortimberwhichinturnleadstoconcernoverwhetheritcanbesuppliedsustainablyfrommanagedplantationswithoutadverseimpactonnaturalforest. Thisresearchpresentsthefindingsfromasupplyanddemandstudyforsustainabletimberinconstruction,andmassengineeredtimber(MET)inparticular.Itincludes20-yearprojectionsofhowthismaychangeunderthreescenarios:‘businessasusual’,arealistic‘timbertransition’,andoptimistic‘timberrenaissance’. Giventhescaleofthechallengewefacetobalancetheneedsoftheenvironmentandofsocietyouroptimisticscenarioor‘timberrenaissance’ispurposefullyambitious,requiringsystemicchangeintheenablingenvironment,supplychainandtheconstructionindustry. Method Ourresearchfocusedonthreeoverarchingfactors,theenablingenvironment,supply,anddemand. ResearchintotheenablingenvironmentanddemandfocusedonKenya.Whilesupply,lookedatKenya,TanzaniaandUganda. Datagatheringwasbasedonstakeholdermapping,documentationreviewandinterviews.Subsequentlywedevelopedqualitativedescriptionsofthethreescenariosasawayofillustratingchangerequiredtorealiseeach. Wealsodevelopedasupplyanddemandmodel,forgreaterunderstandingofandinsightintothesupplychain.Thesupplysidetracesvolumesfromplantationsthroughtokilns,separatingthepre-requisitestepsrequiredforengineeredtimber.Thedemandsidefocusesontheresidentialsector,specificallytheuseofengineeredtimberformid riseresidentialbuildings,andsawntimberforsinglefamilydwellings. Inordertoinformtheindicativemodel,wecarriedoutaconceptdesignofamid-riseresidentialtimberbuilding.Thisenabledustoexplorecost,carbon,fireengineeringandbuildingsinsurance,specifictotheNairobi.Whilstthetypologychosenisrelativelytypicalitdoesnotnecessarilyequatetoanaveragedesignandsothenumbersgeneratedbyscalingupthistypologyinthedemandmodelshouldbetreatedwithcaution. 11Mishra,A.,Humpenöder,F.,Churkina,G.etal.(2022)Landusechangeandcarbonemissionsofatransformationtotimbercities.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w 2 3 Findings EnablingEnvironment Theenablingenvironmentfortheuseofsustainabletimberinconstructioniscurrentlyundevelopedwithgapsacrossgovernance,policy,incentivesandregulation. WhilsttheKenyaForestryServiceandKenyaTimberManufacturersAssociationrepresentgrowersandmanufacturersrespectivelythereisnoindustrybodydedicatedtouseofsustainable timberinconstruction.Establishingsuchabodywillprovideafocalpointfordrivinginitiativesacrossthisarea.TheTanzaniaNationalTimberSectorDevelopmentFrameworkisakeyreferenceanddevelopingasimilarframeworkforKenyacouldbeapriorityactionforsuchabody. PolicybothwithinKenyaandasrelatestoimportsfromUgandahasnotbeenconducivetosupply. TheloggingmoratoriuminKenyahasservedtostiflethedomesticmanufacturingsupplychain.BycontrasttheEUfundedSPGShasbeeneffectiveinincreasingprojectedpinevolumesinUganda. TheimportcostsfromUgandaandTanzaniawillhaveasignificanteffectonfuturedemandandregionalcoordinationandcooperationwillbekey. Todatenationalincentivessuchastaxreliefontheimportationofrawtimberhavebeenappliedinconsistently.DemandpolicywithinKenyadoesnotexplicitlypromotetimberinconstruction,althoughstepsarebeingtakentopromote greentechnology,forexamplethroughEDGEcertification.Financialinstitutionsareprovidingloansandbondstosupportgreenconstruction,oftentiedtotheuseofIFCEDGEasaframework/target,presentinganopportunitytoinfluencematerialchoice.IdeallythiswouldbebackedupthroughanationalcarbontaxationmechanismandintegrationofemissionstargetsintoGovernmentstrategies.AtpresentthereisanactivevoluntarycarbontradingmarketinKenya,primarilyforinternationalbuyersbutwithanincreasinglocalmarket.Themajority oftheseprojectsareintheforestrysectorindicatingsuchopportunitiesarealreadybeingpursued. Attimeofwriting,theKenyaNationalBuildingCode2020remainsindraft.IfapproveditwouldsupporttimberdesignviatheEurocodesuite,untilthenhoweverthereisnocodeforengineered timber.Thedraftdoesnotincludetargetsforcarbonemissions.Onceapprovedthenextstepwillbe theauthoringofaEurocodeNationalAnnexeforKenya,forthedesignandconstructionoftimberandMET,includinglocal