一个新镜头 ： Arup 的 7see 框架如何为低碳未来创造有用的场景

Anewlens:HowArup’s7seeframeworkcancreateusefulscenariosforalow-carbonfuture Dr.SimonH.RobertsAssociateDirector ArupUniversity Abouttheauthor Dr.SimonH.RobertsisanassociatedirectorandenergyspecialistinArupUniversity.Heisaphysicistwithanindustrialbackgroundinmanufacturingandalong-terminvolvementinsustainabilityandenergy-relatedmatters. Collaboratorsfordevelopmentofthe7seemodel: ColinAxon(BrunelUniversityLondon),BarneyForan(CharlesSturtUniversity,Australia),NigelGoddard(UniversityofEdinburgh), andBenjaminWarr(INSEAD,France). Collaboratorsforcritiquingthe7seescenarioshere: ChrisThoung(economist),ColinAxon(BrunelUniversity,London),SimonRatcliffe(DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment,UKGovernment–inhispersonalcapacity),TonyGreenham(theRSA,RoyalSocietyfortheencouragementofArts,ManufacturesandCommerce),andfromArupincludeStephenCook,ElisaMagnini,JamesThonger andKimWest. Introduction The195nationsthatsignedthehistoricCOP21agreementinParisinDecember2015nowhavetofaceuptothecommitmentsthey’vemadeundertheirINDCs(IntendedNationallyDeterminedContributions).Thesearethevoluntaryreductionsincarbondioxideemissionsthateachcountryhascommittedto,intendedtostoptheEarthfrompermanentlywarmingbyover2°Cabove pre-industriallevels. Astheconversationmovesfrom‘thewhat’to‘thehow’,Arupissharingamodellingtoolcalled7see,whichhelpsindustrialisedeconomiesvisualisetransitionalscenariosthatcoulddeliver thatlow-carbonfuture,withoutturningtheirbacksoneconomicgrowth,stableemploymentorprosperity. Inacollaborationofacademicsandothercolleagues,wehavedevelopedthe7seeframeworktoshednewlightonthecomplexrelationshipbetweensectorsofeconomicactivity,growthandcarbonemissions.Inawaywethinkofitasrenderingvisibletheengineeringofoureconomy. Asthisarticlewillshow,thismodelisaboutvisualisingpotentialeconomicscenarios.Intherealmofpolicy-makingtherightmodelswillhelppolicy-makersevaluateandcommittomoreambitiousyetpragmaticsolutions.Giventhelevelofstructuralchangerequiredinshiftingacountry’senergyproductionbasis,understandinghow,whatandwhentochangewillbekeytomakingprogress. Behaviourofthemodel Onefacetof7seeisasamethodologyforvisualisingandanalysingcomplexdataaboutacountry,focusingon‘dwellings’(residences)andtheeconomicactivityofsixmainareas:agriculture,extraction,utilities,manufacturing,constructionandtheserviceindustry. WefocushereontheUKasanexampleofitsapplication. UsingacollationofofficialUKstatisticsdatingbackto1990oneconomicoutput,infrastructurecosts(includingfortheirreplacement),energyuse,generationcapacity,jobs,population,dwellingsandtransportation,the7seemodelcangeneratevaluableinsightsintotheroadahead.Ituncovershowtheinterlockingpartsofoureconomyuseenergy,howemploymentandwealtharegenerated,and,importantly,howtheeconomymighttransitiontodeliveralow-carbonfuture. Contrarytothedoom-ladensuppositionsofsomeeconomistsandpolicy-makers,7seesuggeststhatitisfeasibletocreatearobustscenarioinwhichthe HistoricalandprojectionsofUKterritorialcarbondioxideemissionsfromcombustionoffossilfuels. 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Historicaldatato2013 7seebusiness-as-usualscenarioto2035 7see-scenarioto2035ofapossiblelow-carbontransition Extrapolationtothe20%targetin2050 Figure1 Emissionsfromfuelcombustion(M-tCO2perannum) transitiontoalow-carboneconomyispossible,withoutgivinguponeconomicgrowth(GDP)andhighlevelsofemploymentintheeconomy. Theburningissue TheCOP21agreementdefinesnations’commitmentstoreducingdemandforenergycreatedbyburningfossilfuels.Forinstance,wewantcontinuedgrowinguseofelectricity,butsomehowhavetogenerateitwithdecreasingemissionsofcarbondioxide. Theunderlyingrequirementisthereforetoshifttheproductionofenergyen-massetodifferent,non-carbonsourcesaswellasacceleratingenergyefficiencyanddemandreduction.OncurrentprojectionstheexistingmixofenergygenerationtechnologieswillmeantheUKfailstomeettherequired80%dropintheemissionofcarbonintotheatmosphereby2050.Figure1,below,makesthisalltooclear.Thebusiness-as-usuallinethattrendsupafter2025representscontinuedemissionofcarbondioxideintotheatmosphere. Butwith86%ofourexistingenergyderivedfromburningfossilfuelshowcouldweaffordsuchsystemicchange? Wouldtherebeincreasedunemployment?Couldweliterallyaffordtokeepthelightsonduringsuchatransitionfromoneenergyinfrastructuretoanother? billion 21.3 Asaplanetwecurrentlyconvertfossilfuelsinto21.3bntonnesofcarbondioxideintheatmosphereeveryyear.Onlyabout50%ofthatCO2isabsorbedbynaturalprocesses.Findinganddeployingnewsourcesoflow-emissionenergythatpowerourhomesandbusinessesandtransportationisthereforevital. 2°C Anaverage2°Cincreaseinglobaltemperatureabovepre-industriallevelsisreckonedtoproduceextremechangesinweather,sealevelrisesandotherthreatstomanyexistingpopulationsaroundtheworld. COP21’sagreementisanattempttocommitnationstomeasuresthatwillstop2°Cbeingexceeded. Economists’fears… Weoftenturntoeconomiststomakepredictionsaboutlikelyoutcomes,andtheytypicallyfocusonpricedynamics.Forexample,ifeachextramegawattofrenewablecapacitycostsalotmorethangas-fired generatio