SHARPER: Seasonal health and resilience for ageing urban populations and environments

SHARPER Seasonalhealthandresilienceforageingurbanpopulationsandenvironments London/NewYork/Shanghai IntroductionMethodologyClimateandurbanenvironmentExtremeweathereventsLandcoverSocio-economiccontext HeatVulnerabilityIndex-LondonMapoverlaysWin-winmeasuresKeymessagesFurtherworkGlossaryFurtherinformation Introduction Climatechangeimpacts,continuedurbanisation,andanageingpopulationarecriticaltrendsforthefutureofglobalcities. Mostclimatechangeimpactsincitieswillbefeltthroughtheincrease ofextremeweathereventssuchasheatwavesandfloods.HeatwavessuchtheonesexperiencedinLondonoverthelasttwodecades(forexamplethosein2003,2006,2011and2013)andhurricaneslikeSandywhichcausedsignificantdamageinNewYorkCityin2012areprojectedtooccurmoreoftenandbemoreintense. Peoplelivingincitiescurrentlyrepresent54%ofthetotalworldpopulationcomparedto34%in1960. 12 Alongsidethiscontinuedurbanisation,theworldpopulationisageingrapidly.Peopleaged65andolderareexpectedtomakeup22%ofthetotalworldpopulationby2050.Thenumberofpeopleaged80andolderwillalsoquadrupleby2050.Thesecombinedtrendsmeanthatmorepeoplewillbeexposedandvulnerabletoclimatechangeimpactsincitiesinthefuture. IntroductionMethodologyClimateandurbanenvironmentExtremeweathereventsLandcoverSocio-economiccontext HeatVulnerabilityIndex-LondonMapoverlaysWin-winmeasuresKeymessagesFurtherworkGlossaryFurtherinformation 12 ThisreportfocussesonhowtheseglobaltrendsareaffectingLondon,NewYorkandShanghai.Itaddressestheexposureandvulnerabilityoftheageingpopulationsincitiestoextremeweatherevents. Exposureandvulnerabilityareassessedusingarangeofspatial,temporalandsocio-economicdataaboutclimaterelatedhazards,citycharacteristics andpeople.Satellitedatahasbeenusedtoillustratethespatialpatternofweatherandclimateimpactsineachcity,whileanovelapproachbasedoncensusdatahasbeenusedtoproduceaHeatVulnerabilityIndextogeneratevulnerabilitymapsforLondonandNewYork. Arangeofmeasureshavebeenidentifiedtoreducethevulnerabilityofelderlypeoplethroughinformingpolicyandpracticerelevanttocreatinghealthyandresilientcities.Theuseof hazard,exposureandvulnerabilitymapshelpstoidentifyareaswheremeasuresshouldbeprioritised.Wesuggestthat‘win-win’measureswhichincrease theresilienceofelderlypeoplewhilecontributingtowidersustainabilityandresiliencebenefitsforcitiesandpeopleareprioritisedwherepossible. ©tania_huiny/Flickr ThisreportistheresultofacollaborationbetweenArup,UniversityCollegeLondon,King’sCollegeLondon,ClimateUK,HelpAgeInternationalandSatelliteApplicationsCatapult. IntroductionMethodologyClimateandurbanenvironmentExtremeweathereventsLandcoverSocio-economiccontext HeatVulnerabilityIndex-LondonMapoverlaysWin-winmeasuresKeymessagesFurtherworkGlossaryFurtherinformation Methodology Hazardandexposuremaps Mapsillustratetheextentanddistributionofextremeevents(e.g.heatwaves andfloodsandurbanenvironmentcharacteristics(e.glanduse) Satellitedata Climatology,environmentandimagerydataonatmosphereandsurfacefromsatellitemeasurements Climateconditionsandweatherevents Urbanenvironmentcontext Definingandprioritisingtargetedmeasures Focuson‘win-win’measureswhichincreasetheresilienceofelderlypeoplewhilecontributingtowidersustainabilityandresiliencebenefitsforcitiesandpeople Identifyclimaterelatedriskhotspots HeatVulnerabilityIndex Combinesmultipleindicatorsfromcensusdatarelevanttoaspecificclimatehazardusingprincipalcomponentanalysis Censusdata Detailedinformationonsocialandeconomiccharacteristicsofanentireurbanpopulationbysmallgeographicareas Socio-economiccontext Combineinformationfromhazardandexposuremapswiththevulnerabilityindextoidentifyareaswhereactionshouldbe prioritised Theapproachfollowedreliesprimarilyonfreelyavailableclimate,environmentalandsocio-economicdata.‘Atcost’datahasonlybeenobtainedtofurtherillustratethebeforeandaftercontextofHurricaneSandyinNewYorkCityusingSyntheticApertureRadar(SAR)fromAirbus. Socio-economicdatahasbeenusedinthedevelopmentofaheatvulnerabilityindexofLondon,whilstmapsrepresentingcurrentclimateandweatherrelatedhazardshavebeenderivedusingsatellitedata.Informationontheurbanenvironment(e.g.landuse,greenareasandwaterbodies)basedonbothsatellite dataandOpenStreetMapdataisusedtoprovideaninsightoncurrentand pastchangestotheurbanformofcities.Thesemultiplelayersofinformationarecombinedtoidentifyclimaterelatedriskhotspotswhichcanthenbeusedtoprioritise‘win-win’measurestoreducerisksandincreaseresilience. IntroductionMethodologyClimateandurbanenvironmentExtremeweathereventsLandcoverSocio-economiccontext HeatVulnerabilityIndex-LondonMapoverlaysWin-winmeasuresKeymessagesFurtherworkGlossaryFurtherinformation Climateandurbanenvironment ExtremehightemperatureFloodsLandcoverCitycharacteristics LandsurfacetemperaturedatahasbeenusedtoillustratehowtemperaturesvaryacrossacityduringaheatwaveeventandanaveragesummerdayduetotheUrbanHeatIslandeffect. DatafromMODIShasallowedtheassessmentoflongtermaveragesoftemperatureswhileLandsatenablesthestudyofheatwaveeventsatahigherspatialresolution. Themostsignificantfloodeventtoaffectoneofthethreecasestud