能源转型的地缘政治：能源安全（英）

GEOPOLITICSOF THEENERGYTRANSITION ENERGYSECURITY routes shipping climate regional independance stabilitydiversification infrastructurepower demand conflictsdevelopment storagegridstrade resilience access policiescyber shiftH2 interconnectors stability materials supplychainflexibilityH2trade accessports potential trade affordable ©IRENA2024 Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial. ISBN:978-92-9260-599-5 CITATION:IRENA(2024),Geopoliticsoftheenergytransition:Energysecurity,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi. Forfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedback:publications@irena.orgThisreportisavailablefordownload:www.irena.org/publications ABOUTIRENA TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfuture.Itservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.www.irena.org ThispublicationwassupportedbyvoluntarycontributionsfromtheGovernmentsoftheNetherlandsandNorway. DISCLAIMER Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein. TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries. 3 ©ljubaphoto;iStock GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransitionENERGYSECURITY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ThisreportwasdevelopedunderthesupervisionofElizabethPress(Director,IRENAPlanningandProgrammeSupport),whoco-authoredthereportwithYanaPopkostovaandThijsVandeGraaf(IRENAconsultants)withsubstantivesupportfromEllipseRathandGeraldTagoe. Theauthorsaregratefulforthereviews,inputsandsupportprovidedbyIRENAcolleaguesRolandRoesch,MichaelTaylor,FranciscoBoshell,RicardoGorini,PaulKomor,ImenGherboudj,AdrianGonzalez,SibghatUllah,FrancisField,KathleenDaniel,StephanieClarke,AnastasiaKefalidou,CeliaGarcía-Baños,JaidevDhavleandHannahSofiaGuinto. InternalpeerreviewwasprovidedbyCarolineOchieng,EmanueleBianco,KarstenSach(IRENAconsultant),MichaelRenner,MirjamReiner,RaulAlfaroPelico,SafiatouAlzoumaandStefanoMarguccio.ExternalpeerreviewwasprovidedbyAndrasRozmer(EEAS),AnnabelleLivet(FoundationforStrategicResearch),BenjaminGibson(Ørsted),DanielScholten(UniversityofMinnesota),HansOlavIbrekk(NorwegianMinistryofForeignAffairs,SectionforEnergy,ClimateandEnvironment),HolgerKlitzing(FederalForeignOffice,Germany),IndraOverland(NUPI),IrinaPatrahau(HCSS),LigiaNoronha(UNEP),OlgaKhakova(TheAtlanticCouncil),PaulaKivimaa(FinnishEnvironmentInstitute[SYKE],PiyushVerma(UNDP),RuudKempener(EuropeanCommission)andSaitoKazuhiko(MinistryofForeignAffairs,Japan). ThereportwaseditedbyStevenKennedy.Designwasprovidedbyweeks.deWerbeagenturGmbH. GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition ABBREVIATIONS ACCaircooledcondenserCOPConferenceofthePartiesCRMcriticalrawmaterials EJexajoule ESGenvironmental,socialandgovernance EUEuropeanUnion EVselectricvehicles FAOFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations GDPgrossdomesticproduct GWgigawatt H2hydrogen IAEAInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency IEAInternationalEnergyAgency IPCCIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange IPRsintellectualpropertyrights IRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency LFPlithium-ironphosphate NATONorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization NMCnickel-manganese-cobalt OECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment PVphotovoltaic SDGSustainableDevelopmentGoalsTFECtotalfinalenergyconsumptionTWterawatt TWhterawatt-hour (U)HVDC(ultra)highvoltagedirectcurrent UNCTADUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment UNEP UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme UF6 uraniumhexafluoride US UnitedStates USD UnitedStatesdollars WETO WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook WIPO ©PhilipLange;shutterstock WorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization 4 FOREWORD Theessentialrol