管理电力需求和供应的季节变化（英）

ManagingtheSeasonalVariabilityofElectricityDemandandSupply INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond. Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Source:IEA. InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.org IEAmembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanada CzechRepublicDenmarkEstonia FinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuania LuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugal SlovakRepublic SpainSwedenSwitzerland RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStates TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA IEAassociationcountries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore SouthAfricaThailandUkraine Abstract Electrificationofend-usesandthegrowthofsolarandwindischanginghowelectricitysystemsoperateonalltimescales.Thisreportanalyseshowseasonalvariationsinbothdemandandsupplyaffectelectricitysystemoperationsto2050–inEurope,India,IndonesiaandKorea–andwhatsourceswillbeusedtomanagethem.Seasonalvariationsareputincontextwiththeannualelectricitymixandshort-term(hourly)variability.Eachoftheanalysedregionshasauniqueelectricitymixtoday,availableresources,geographies,andpatternsofelectricitydemand.Eachhaschartedadifferentcoursefortheircleanenergytransitionsandislocatedindifferentclimaticzones.Thisstudyalsorecognisesthatweatherconditionsareuncertainandvaryfromyear-to-year,exploringtheirimpactonsystemoperationsandpowersystemcosts.Thestudyfindsthat,ineachsystem,bothshort-termandseasonalflexibilityneedsriseconsiderablyto2050.Flexibility,currentlyprovidedbythermalpowerplantsandhydro,willincreasinglycomefromnewsources–demandresponseandbatteriesonshortertimescalesandhydrogenacrossweekstoseasons–withlowemissionsthermalpowerplantsandhydroremainingimportantprovidersofseasonalbalancing.Asthesystemsbecomemorecapital-intensive,consumersareincreasinglyinsulatedfromtheimpactofweathervariationsonpowerplantoperationsandthevolatilityoffossilfuelprices. ThisworkexpandsonthereportManagingSeasonalandInterannualVariability,publishedinApril2023whichassessestheimpactofweather-relatedvariabilityonsystemoperationsacrossseasonsandbetweenyearsindifferentclimaticzones. Tableofcontents Executivesummary5 Introduction11 Modelset-upandmethodology13 Keyfindings19 Regionalinsights24 Europe25 India42 Indonesia58 Spotlight:Korea71 Implicationsforpowerplantoperationsandcosts79 Annex88 Executivesummary Thechangingnatureofelectricitydemandandsupplycallsformoreflexibilitywithinaday,butalsoacrossseasons Thenatureofelectricitydemandandsupplyischangingrapidlywithcleanenergytransitions.WindandsolarPVrepresented12%ofglobalelectricitysupplyin2023,butriseto40%by2030onthepathtonetzeroemissionsby2050.Combinedwithnewsourcesofdemandforelectricity,fromelectricvehiclestoresidentialheatpumps,powersystemswilllookandoperatedifferentlythantheyhavetodateandelectricitysecuritywillbecomeevermoreimportant. ThisworkrepresentsthesecondphaseofanalysisfollowingthepublicationofManagingSeasonalandInterannualVariabilityinApril2023whichfocusedonassessingtheconsequencesofraisingtheshareofannualelectricitygenerationfromvariablerenewablestoabove70%inexamplesystemsinfourdistinctclimaticregions. Thisreportexaminestheimpactsofseasonalvariationsindemandandsupplyonelectricitysystemsinthreeregions:Europe,India,andIndonesia.Thesethreeregionsprovidemanyinsightsintothedeepchangesbetweentodayand2030or2050,astheystartfromdifferentpowersystemstoday,withuniquepatternsofelectricitydemandandmixesofelectricitysources.Eachhascharteddifferentcoursesfortheircleanenergytransitionsandarelocatedindifferentclimaticzones.TheAnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS),inwhichcountries meettheir2030targetsandlonger-termnetzeroorcarbonneutralitypledgesisthebasisofthisanalysis,includingtheEuropeanUnion’stargettobeclimate-neutralby2050,India’sambitiontoachievenetzeroemissionsby2070andIndonesia’scommitmenttoreachnetzeroemissionsby2060orbefore. Theanalysisisbasedonajointelectricityandhydrogendispatchmodel,newlydevelopedforthisreportandincorporatedintotheGlobalEnergyandClimateModel,representinghour-to-houroperationsforallhoursoftheyear.1Eachregionisseparatedintomultiplesub-regionsandgridinterconnectionsbetweenthosesub-regionsarerepresented.Datafrom30historicalyearsoftemperaturepatternsaffectingelectricitydemandforheatingandcooling,windandsolaravailability,andinflowstohydropowerprojectsareusedtoanalyseeachsystemin2030and2050.Thisanalysisalsoincorporatesadetailedrepresentationofdemandresponsebyend-use. Theoverallapproachenablestheassessmentoftheseasonalvariabilityofelectricitydemand,determineshowflexib