目的地国家的新闻情绪和移民选择：来自利比亚的证据（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10754 NewsSentimentinDestinationCountriesandMigrationChoices EvidencefromLibya MicheleDiMaioNellyElmallakh ValerioLeoneSciabolazza MiddleEastandNorthAfricaRegionOfficeoftheChiefEconomist April2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10754 Abstract Changesinthesentimentofmigration-relatednewspub-lishedindestinationcountriesaffectthetimingofmigrants’journeystothesecountries.Usinggeo-localizeddataonmigrantsinLibyaandthecompleterecordofnewsarticlesintheircountryofdestination,thispapershowsthataworseningnewssentimentleadstomigrantsstayinglongerinLibya,slowingdowntheirjourneystotheirfinaldestina-tions.Thepapervalidatestheseresultsbyshowingthattheeffectisconcentratedinlocationswithinternetconnections. Theresultsindicatethatchangesinnewssentimenthaveasignificantimpactonlyforsomegroupsofmigrantsandunderspecificconditions,suggestingalimitedeffectonoverallmigrantmovements.Finally,thepaperprovidessuggestiveevidencethataworseningnewssentimentinthepreferreddestinationinducessubstitutionacrossdesti-nationcountries,yetitdoesnotmakemigrantsreturntotheircountryoforigin. ThispaperisaproductoftheOfficeoftheChiefEconomist,MiddleEastandNorthAfricaRegion.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatmichele.dimaio@uniroma1.it,nelmallakh@worldbank.org,andvalerio.leonesciabolazza@uniroma1.it. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam NewsSentimentinDestinationCountriesandMigrationChoices:EvidencefromLibya∗ MicheleDiMaio† SapienzaUniversityandIZA NellyElmallakh‡ WorldBank ValerioLeoneSciabolazza§ SapienzaUniversity Keywords:Migration,newssentiment,GDELT,Libya,Europe JELcodes:F22,J61,L82. ∗Wethanktheparticipantstothe16thAFD-WorldBankConferenceonMigrationandDevelopment(BostonUniversity),theConflictsandtheEconomyWorkshop(Universit`aCattolicaofMilan),andtheEBRDResearchSeminar(London)fortheircommentsandsuggestions.WealsothankMargheritaBove,FrancescaCalamunci,andCeciliaNardiforexcellentresearchassistance.TheauthorsgratefullyacknowledgethefinancialsupportfromtheOfficeoftheChiefEconomistfortheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MNACE)undertheregionalLaborandGenderResearchPrograms.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheWorldBank.Allerrorsareourown. †michele.dimaio@uniroma1.it,SapienzaUniversityofRome(Italy)andIZA ‡nelmallakh@worldbank.org,WorldBank:CorrespondingAuthor §valerio.leonesciabolazza@uniroma1.it,SapienzaUniversityofRome(Italy) 1Introduction Migrationisoneofthemostpoliticallypolarizingissuesinadvancedcountries.Thisisreflectedinthewaymigrationanditseffectsaredescribedinthenews.Whilesomestudieslookathowmigration-relatednewsinfluencespublicopinionandvotesindestinationcountries,1littleisknownabouttheeffectofchangesinthesentimentofmigration-relatednewsindestinationcountriesonenroutemigrantsandtheirmigrationchoices.Investigatingthismatterisimpor-tanttobetterunderstandtheimpactoftheincreasinguseofanaggressivetonebypopulistleaderstryingtodiscouragemigrantsfromseekingentryintoEuropeortheUS.2 Thispaperstudieshowchangesinthesentimentofmigration-relatednewspublishedinmi-grants’preferreddestinationcountriesaffectmigrants’movementswithinLibyaandthetimingoftheirjourneytothesecountries.LibyaisthecountrywiththelargestnumberofinternationalmigrantsinallofNorthAfricaandthemajorgatewayfromAfricatoEurope.3Byshowingtowhatextentchangesinthenewssentimentindestinationcountriesimpactthechoicesofmi-grantsinLibya,wecontributetoabetterunderstandingofthedeterminantsofthemovementsalongthemostimportantirregularmigrationroutetoEurope. Ouranalysiscombinestwomaindatasources.First,weusedataonmigrantslocatedinLibyaduringtheperiod2017-2020collectedbytheInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM).Eventhoughsomemigrantsplantoremaininthecountry,formostofthemLibyaisatransitcountrytowardstheirfinaldestination.WhileinLibya,migrantsoftenstayforlongperiodsinthesamelocation,liveinrentedhouses,andhavean(informal)job(IOM,2018a).Duringtheirstayinthecountry,migrantsoftenmoveacrosslocationsseveraltimes,usingdifferentinternalroutesaccordingtotheirnationality(DiMaioetal.,2023).Tostudymigrants’movementswithinLibya,weusegeo-localizedmonthlydatacollectedbytheIOMin167FlowMonitoringPoints(FMPs)inLibya.FMPsarelocatedatimportantp