PVC周报：社会库存依旧高位，PVC周度价格走弱

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 上周PVC周度价格震荡偏弱，价格重心下移。供应端因面临春检，产量存减少预期；国内制品企业订单不佳，整体开工偏弱，仅部分企业刚需逢低采购；社会库存维持高位，因下游制品企业采购意愿欠佳，高位库存无法有效去化；电石开工率稳中有增，下游采购价格整体维持稳定；短期来看PVC基本面仍存一定压力，但受检修预期以及出口预期等支撑价格向下空间有限，但上涨受限于PVC高位库存无法去化。或维持震荡运行，建议观望。 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至3月28日，周度开工负荷率在76.05%，较上周提升1.98个百分点。 联系人 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com PVC产量及开工率：截至3月28日，整体开工负荷率78.54%，环比提升0.62个百分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工负荷率80.10%，环比提升0.43个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率73.88%，环比提升1.2个百分点。 从业资格号：F03119179 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC检修：截至3月28日，停车及检修造成的损失量在5.583万吨，较上周增加0.396万吨。预计下周检修损失量较本周变化不大。 PVC库存：截至3月28日，总库存55.27万吨，较上一期增加0.66%，同比增25.10%。 需求：下游制品企业开工变化不大，整体采购原料积极性不佳，部分企业逢低刚需补货。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨........................................................................