中国全国二氧化碳排放交易体系的一般均衡评估（英）

China’sNationwideCO2EmissionsTradingSystem:AGeneralEquilibriumAssessment LawrenceH.Goulder,XianlingLong,ChenfeiQu,DaZhang WorkingPaper24-02 February2024 AbouttheAuthors LawrenceH.GoulderistheShuzoNishiharaProfessorinEnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsatStanfordUniversityandDirectoroftheStanfordCenterforEnvironmentalandEnergyPolicyAnalysis.HeisalsotheKennedy-GrossmanFellowinHumanBiologyatStanford;aSeniorFellowatStanford'sInstituteforEconomicPolicyResearch;aResearchAssociateattheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch;andaUniversityFellowofResourcesfortheFuture. XianlingLongobtainedherPhDfromStanfordUniversityin2020.SheisnowanassistantprofessorattheNationalSchoolofDevelopment,PekingUniversity. ChenfeiQuisaffiliatedwiththeInstituteofEnergy,Environment,andEconomyatTsinghuaUniversity. DaZhangisanassociateprofessorattheInstituteofEnergy,EnvironmentandEconomyatTsinghuaUniversity.HeisaresearchassociatefortheJointProgramontheScienceandPolicyofGlobalChangeatMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,andanassociateeditorfortheJournalofGlobalEconomicAnalysis.Hismainresearchinterestsincludeenergyandenvironmentaleconomics,energysystemmodeling,appliedgeneralequilibriummodeling,andorganizationaleconomics. Acknowledgments WearegratefulforhelpfulcommentsfromCarolynFischer,GuojunHe,ChristopherR.Knittel,GilbertE.Metcalf,AlistairRitchie,ThomasRutherford,RobertonWilliams,XiliangZhang,andparticipantsintheNBEREnvironmentalandEnergyEconomicsProgramMeeting,WorldBankClimateChangeandDevelopmentResearchSeminar,MannheimConferenceonEnergyandEnvironment,andAERE2023SummerConference.WethankShuxiaoWangandYishengSunforcontributingdataandoutputsfromtheirair-qualitymodelandShifrahAron-Dine,BingLiuandEricWeinerforexcellentresearchassistance.WealsogratefullyacknowledgefinancialsupportfromtheEnergyFoundationChina,AsiaSocietyPolicyInstitute,NationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina,MinistryofEducationofChina,andEnvironmentalDefenseFund. AboutRFF ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFiscommittedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy. Workingpapersareresearchmaterialscirculatedbytheirauthorsforpurposesofinformationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessarilyundergoneformalpeerreview.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors. SharingOurWork OurworkisavailableforsharingandadaptationunderanAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives4.0International(CCBY-NC-ND4.0)license.Youcancopyandredistributeourmaterialinanymediumorformat;youmustgiveappropriatecredit,providealinktothelicense,andindicateifchangesweremade,andyoumaynotapplyadditionalrestrictions.Youmaydosoinanyreasonablemanner,butnotinanywaythatsuggeststhelicensorendorsesyouoryouruse.Youmaynotusethematerialforcommercialpurposes.Ifyouremix,transform,orbuilduponthematerial,youmaynotdistributethemodifiedmaterial.Formoreinformation,visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Abstract China’srecentlylaunchedCO2emissionstradingsystem,alreadytheworld’slargest,aimstocontributeimportantlytoglobalreductionsingreenhousegasemissions.Thesystem,atradableperformancestandard(TPS),differsimportantlyfromcapandtrade(C&T),theprincipalapproachusedinothercountries.Weofferadynamicgeneralequilibriumassessmentofthisnewventure,employingamodelthatuniquelyconsidersinstitutionalandfiscalfeaturesofChina’seconomythatinfluenceeconomy-widepolicycostsanddistributionalimpacts. Keyfindingsincludethefollowing.TheTPS’senvironmentalbenefitsexceeditscostsbyafactoroffivewhenonlytheclimatebenefitsareconsideredandbyasignificantlyhigherfactorwhenhealthbenefitsfromimprovedairqualityareincluded.ItsinteractionswithChina’sfiscalsystemsubstantiallyaffectitscostsrelativetothoseofC&T.Employingasinglebenchmarkfortheelectricitysectorwouldlowercostsbyoverathirdrelativetotheexistingfour-benchmarksystembutincreasethestandarddeviationofpercentageincomelossesacrossprovincesbymorethan60percent. Introducinganauctionasacomplementarysourceofallowancesupplycanlowereconomywidecostsbyatleast30percent. Contents 1.Introduction1 2.TheTPS6 2.1.BasicFeatures6 2.2.ProducerBehaviorandEfficiencyImplications7 3.TheNumericalModel10 3.1.MainFeatures10 3.2.Production11 3.2.1.PrimaryFactors11 3.2.2.SectorsandSubsectors12 3.2.3.State-OwnedEnterprisesandAdministeredPricing14 3.3.HouseholdBehavior15 3.4.GovernmentBehavior15 3.5.ForeignTrade15 3.6.Equilibrium16 3.7.Dynamics16 4.DataandParameters16 4.1.Data16 4.2.Parameters17 5.Scenarios18 6.Results20 6.1.AggregateImpacts20 6.1.1.EmissionsReductions20 6.1.2.AggregateCosts22 6.2.SectorImpacts26 6.2.1.SectorandSubsectorPrices,Outputs,andProfits26 6.2.2.ImpactsonRenewables28 6.3.NetBenefits29 6.4.ImpactsofAuctioning32 6.5.Trade-offsbetweenEfficiencyandDistributionalImpacts34 7.Conclusions35 8.References37 AppendixA.ProductionStructurea