希腊电力系统演变英

TheGreekelectricitysystemevolution&theElectricityHighwaytoCentralEurope November2023 – KPMGAdvisorsSingleMemberS.A.–ManagementConsulting–Strategy&Operations AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki–SchoolofElectricalandComputerEngineering Backgroundtothisstudy Thescopeofthisstudyisthelong-termanalysisoftheGreekelectricitymarketinordertoinvestigatethepotentialbenefitsfromtheoperationofanew9GWgreenelectricitycorridortoGermanyforboththeend-consumersandtheGreeknationaleconomy. Forthispurpose,a30-yearstudyhorizon(2026-2055)wasusedandthree(3)scenarioswerestudiedwhichfollow,ingeneral,themainprovisionsoftherevisedGreekNationalEnergyandClimatePlan(NECP)thatiscurrentlyunderfinalizationbytheGreekState,especiallyregardingtheevolutionofthesystemloaddemand(i.e.65TWhin2030)andtheRESpenetrationshare(i.e.80%RESsharein2030)aswellasthepermanentwithdrawalofligniteunitsbytheendof2028.Appropriateadjustmentsandextrapolationshavebeendonetovariousmarketandsystemparameterstoformulatearealisticlong-termelectricitymarketsimulationscenariofortheentirestudyhorizonbasedonourexperience.Themainassumptionsofthethreescenariosareasfollows: Scenario1 •Four(4)NewCCGTs(AverageUCAP≈800MW)operateduringtheentirestudyperiod •BESSpenetrationaccordingtoNECPassumptionsduringtheentirestudyperiod •The9-GWInterconnectiontoCentralEuropeisNOTavailable Scenario2 •Three(3)NewCCGTs(AverageUCAP≈800MW)operateduringtheentirestudyperiod •NoBESSareconsideredduring theentirestudyperiod •The9-GWInterconnectiontoCentralEuropeisavailable Scenario3 •Three(3)NewCCGTs(AverageUCAP≈800MW)operateduringtheentirestudyperiod •AdditionalPVCapacitywithrespecttoSc.1&2andmoderateBESSpenetrationisconsideredtoincreasetheannualutilizationofthe9-GWInterconnectiontoCentralEurope •The9-GWInterconnectiontoCentralEuropeisavailable MethodologicalApproach Theultimategoalofthisanalysisistoestimatethetotalcostofelectricitysupplytobeundertakenbytheend-consumersalongwiththecost/benefitofthenationaleconomyassociatedwiththecross-borderelectricityexchangeineachofthethreeaforementionedscenarios.Bycomparingthesefiguresinthethreescenarios,wecandirectlyestimatetheaddedbenefitthattheoperationofanew9GWgreenelectricitycorridortoGermanycanentailforboththeend-consumersandtheGreeknationaleconomy. Inthiscontext,thestudyisseparatedintwodistinctsteps,asfollows: Thescopeofthissimulationanalysisistoperformalong-termforecastingofmainwholesalemarketindicators(e.g.energygenerationmix,marketclearingprices,upliftaccountcharges,etc.).Itisunderlinedthatallthesemarketindicatorsareforecastedinthefinest(hourly)timeresolutionandarethenusedintheextensiveex-postcalculationsthatfollowinthesecondstep. Detailedlong-termsimulationoftheGreekwholesaleelectricitymarket Thesaidmarketindicatorsareusedinordertoestimatethetotalcostofelectricitysupplyfortheend-consumersalongwiththecost/benefitofthenationaleconomyassociatedwiththecross-borderelectricityexchangeforeachofthethreescenarios. Cost/Benefitanalysisforend-consumersandthenationaleconomy SoftwareTool Inthisstudy,theGreekwholesaleelectricitymarketwassimulatedforafuture30-yearstudyperiod(2026-2055)withtheintegratedsimulationtool“Long-TermSchedulingextended”(LTSx).LTSxwasdevelopedbythePowerSystemsLabofAristotleUniversityofThessalonikiandiscapableofrealisticallysimulatingtheGreekwholesaleelectricitymarketinthelong-term,bysolvingsequentially: 01 Day-AheadMarket(DAM) 02 IntegratedSchedulingProcess(ISP) 03 Real-TimeBalancingEnergyMarket(RTBEM) Theaforementionedoptimizationproblemsareprocessedandsolvedonaday-by-daybasisusingtheappropriatetemporalresolution: •1hourforDAM •30-minforISP •15-minforRTBEM EachoftheseoptimizationmodelsarefullyalignedwiththeregulatoryandoperationalprovisionsofthecurrentGreekwholesaleelectricitymarket,asdocumentedinthe Day-AheadMarket&Intra-DayMarketTradingRulebookandBalancingMarketRulebook,aswellasinthedetailedtechnicaldecisionsthathavebeenpublishedbytheGreekMarketOperator(HEnEx)andtheGreekTransmissionSystemOperator(IPTO). ThemodelingenvironmentusedfortheformulationandsolutionoftheaforementionedcoreoptimizationmodelsistheGenericAlgebraicModelingSystem(GAMS)alongwiththeCPLEXsolver Ineachscenario,thefollowingcostcomponentsarecalculated: Ineachscenario,thefollowingcomponentsarecalculated 01 Wholesalemarketelectricityprocurementcost •Day-aheadmarketelectricityprocurementcost:ThisistheelectricityprocurementcostundertakenbytheRetailersforbuyingelectricitydirectlyfromtheday-aheadmarket.Forthescopeofthisstudy,ithasbeenconsideredthatRetailerswillusethisoptiontocovertheirremainingneedsafterhavingconcludedPPAcontractswithRESproducers. •RESPPAelectricityprocurementcost:ThisistheelectricityprocurementcostundertakenbytheRetailersforbuyingelectricitydirectlyfromRESplants(mainlyPVandwindstations).Ithasbeenconsideredthatfromthenext1-2yearsonwardsRESplantswillbeeagertoconcludelong-termPPAcontractswithRetailersforprovidingthemwiththeirentireRESgenerationvolumes.Forthepurposesofthisstudyandfollowingcurrentpractice,theweightedaveragePPApriceofthesecontractshasbeenestimat