RENEWABLEENERGYROADMAPNIGERIA ©IRENA2023 Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgmentisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial. ISBN978-92-9260-477-6 Citation:IRENA(2023),RenewableEnergyRoadmap:Nigeria,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi. AboutIRENA TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation;acentreofexcellence;arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge;andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationoftheglobalenergysystem.Aglobalintergovernmentalorganisationestablishedin2011,IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergyandgeothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurity,andlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.www.irena.org Acknowledgements ThisreportwaspreparedbyIRENAinclosecollaborationwiththeEnergyCommissionofNigeria. Thisreportbenefitedfromtheinputofvariousexperts,mostnotablyProfessorEliJidereBala,DrMikailaZakariandNafiuTijjanioftheEnergyCommissionofNigeria.IRENAcolleagueswhoprovidedvaluablereviewandsupportincludedUteCollier,NopenyoDabla,ImenGherboudj,AsamiMiketa,MohamedNababa,DivyamNagpalandSebastianSterl..ThisreportwasdevelopedundertheguidanceofDolfGielen(Director,IRENAInnovationandTechnologyCentre). SpecialthanksareduetothenumerousNigerianstakeholdersandexpertswhotookpartinthenationalreviewworkshops(pleaseseefulllistofstakeholdersinAppendixA).TechnicalreviewofthisreportwasperformedbyPaulKomoranditwascopyeditedbyErinCrum. Contributingauthors:SeánCollins,RicardoGorini,ZainabAjibade(IRENA)andMichaelDioha(IndependentConsultant).Forfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedback:publications@irena.org Thisreportisavailablefordownload:www.irena.org/publications Disclaimer Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein. TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries. CONTENTS Foreword8 Keyfindingsandmessages10 01INTRODUCTION18 1.1TheREmapprocess20 1.2ScenariodefinitionsforNigeria22 02Modellingmethodologyandkeyassumptions24 2.1Modellingmethodologyandsocio-economicassumptions25 2.2Nigeria’srenewableenergyresources26 03Energycontextandpotential30 3.1Primaryenergy33 3.2Totalfinalenergyconsumption34 3.3Buildingssector(residentialandcommercial)35 3.4Transportsector38 3.5Industrysector41 3.6Agriculturesector42 3.7Powersector43 04Renewableenergyoutlook48 4.1PlannedEnergyScenarioto205050 4.2TransformingEnergyScenarioto205066 4.3Impactofdifferentgrowthrates87 05Actionsneedednow92 5.1Power94 5.2Buildings96 5.3Transport97 5.3Industry98 5.4Agriculture99 References100 AppendixA108 AppendixB112 TheTIMESNigeriamodel112 Costassumptions113 Macroeconomicdrivers114 Energyservicedemands116 FIGURES Figure1AverageannualglobalhorizontalirradiationinNigeria26 Figure2AverageannualwindspeedinNigeria27 Figure3Nigerianprimaryenergysupplyin2015baseyear(2730PJ)basedonmodelresultsandvalidatedthrougharangeofstakeholderengagement32 Figure4TotalfinalenergyconsumptionbysectorinNigeria2015(2155PJ)basedonmodelresults andvalidatedthrougharangeofstakeholderengagement34 Figure5Renewableenergyshareintotalfinalconsumptionbyend-usesector,mostofwhichisfrominefficientcombustionoftraditionalbiomassderivedbasedonarangeofdocuments andstakeholderengagement35 Figure6Totalfinalenergyconsumptioninresidentialbuildingsin2015basedonmodelresultsandvalidatedthrougharangeofstakeholderengagement36 Figure7Totalfinalenergyconsumptionincommercialbuildingsin2015basedonmodelresultsandvalidatedthrougharangeofstakeholderengagement37 Figure8Totalfinalenergyconsumptionintransportin2015(PJ)basedonmodelresultsand validatedthrougharangeofstakeholderengagement39 Figure9Totalfinalenergyconsumptioninindustryin2015(PJ)basedonmodelresultsand validatedthrougharangeofstakeholderengagement41 Figure10Totalfinalenergyconsumptioninagriculturein2015(PJ)basedonmodelresultsand validatedthrougharangeofstakeholderengagement42 Figure11Powercap