Socio-economic footprint of the energy transition: Southeast Asia

Socio-economicfootprintoftheenergytransition SOUTHEASTASIA ©IRENA2023 Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenoftheauthor(s)asthesourceandIRENAasthecopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial. ISBN:978-92-9260-534-6 Citation:IRENA(2023),Socio-economicfootprintoftheenergytransition:SoutheastAsia,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi. AboutIRENA TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge,andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationoftheglobalenergysystem.Anintergovernmentalorganisationestablishedin2011,IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements ThisreportwasdevelopedundertheguidanceofRabiaFerroukhi(Director,KnowledgePolicyandFinanceCentre)andMichaelRennerandwasauthoredbyBishalParajuliandGondiaSokhnaSeck(IRENA),CarlosGuadarrama,JustineBrunandAntoineFabienDevincenti(ex-IRENA). ThereportbenefitedfromthereviewsandinputsfromIRENAcolleagues:AbdullahAbouAli,BadariahYosiyana,CeliaGarcía-Baños,DialaHawila,NicholasWagner,LauraEl-Katiri,RolandRoesch,SeanCollin,XavierCasalsandPaulKomor.Thereportalsobenefitedfromvaluablereviewsandcontributionsfromexternalexperts:DavidJ.Morgado(AsianDevelopmentBank),BeniSuryadiandGiangNgocHuongVu(ASEANCentreforEnergy),CarolineSejerDamgaardandGiadaVenturini(DanishEnergyAgency),HongpengLiuandMichaelDavidWaldron(UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacific). IRENAwouldliketothanktheGovernmentofDenmarkforsupportingIRENAwiththeworkthatformedthebasisofthisreport. Forfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedback:publications@irena.org Disclaimer Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein. TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries. AllimagesinthisreportweregeneratedusingMidjourneyAI-©WeDoDesign.fr Contents Figures04Tables05Boxes05Abbreviations06 Executivesummary07 02 01 Introduction16Energyandmacroeconomictrends20 2.1Thecurrentenergymix21 2.2EconomicgrowthasmeasuredbyGDP27 2.3ThedimensionsofIRENA’swelfareindicator32 2.4Employment41 2.5Policiesandinitiativesfortheenergytransition45 03 Socio-economicimpactoftheenergytransition50 3.1ThePlannedEnergyScenario52 3.2Policyinputsandassumptionsinthe1.5°CScenario52 3.3Economicgains,asmeasuredbyGDP,underthe1.5°CScenario54 3.4Employment58 3.5Welfare61 04 Conclusion64 References68AnnexA:NDCsinSoutheastAsiancountries75 Figures FIGURES1ASEAN’sGDP,percentagedifferencebetween1.5˚CScenarioandPES bydriver,2021-205010 FIGURES2EmploymentinSoutheastAsia,percentagedifferencebetween the1.5˚CScenarioandthePESbydriver,2021-205012 FIGURES3Energysector(left)andrenewableenergysector(right)jobsinthePES andthe1.5˚CScenario,2019,2030and205013 FIGURES4WelfareIndexbydimensionfor1.5˚CScenario(left)anddifferenceinwelfare betweenthe1.5˚CScenarioandthePES(right),205014FIGURE1Reducingemissionsby2050throughsixtechnologicalavenues19FIGURE2ASEAN’sTPES,bysource,2000-202021 FIGURE3ASEAN’stotalpowerinstalledcapacityin2020(left)andcapacity changescomparedto2010(right)22FIGURE4ASEAN’srenewableenergyinstalledcapacity(GW),2000-202023FIGURE5RenewableenergyinvestmentsinSoutheastAsiabycountry(topgraph) andtechnology(bottomgraph),2012-202225 FIGURE6RealGDPgrowthinSoutheastAsia,2021-2023(top),andGDP andGDPpercapitain2020(bottom)28FIGURE7EvolutionofhouseholdconsumptionexpenditureinSoutheastAsia,1995-202129FIGURE8StructureofIRENA’sEnergyTransitionWelfareIndex32FIGURE9PublichealthexpenditurepercapitainSoutheastAsia,201934FIGURE10Mortalityrateattributedtohouseholdandambientairpollution, age-standardised(per100000population)inSoutheastAsia,201635 FIGURE11TotalandpercapitaGHGemissionsinSoutheastAsia,201936FIGURE12DMCpercapitainSoutheastAsia37FIGURE13Accesstoe