The CalSIM model is a tool developed by the UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education and the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research to estimate the impact of the Affordable Care Act on employer and individual decisions to offer and obtain health coverage in California. The model predicts changes in health coverage in the state under two scenarios: a base scenario based on typical responses by individuals and employers to expanded coverage offerings, and an enhanced scenario based on a more robust enrollment and retention strategy planned by state coverage programs. The model shows that the ACA will significantly expand access to affordable health coverage in California starting in 2014, with millions of low- and middle-income families eligible for subsidies through the California Health Benefit Exchange. However, the level of enrollment in the new and expanded programs and the resulting share of Californians who gain coverage under the ACA will depend on a range of factors, including the ease of enrollment and retention, outreach strategies, and language accessibility.
