The policy note examines the potential implications of eliminating the minimum coverage requirement (MCR), or "individual mandate," in California under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The authors find that the ACA will reduce California's eligible uninsured population from 4.63 million to 2.72 million by 2019, a reduction of 1.91 million or 41% of the eligible uninsured. In contrast, without the MCR, the ACA will reduce the state's eligible uninsured population from 4.63 million to 3.76 million, a reduction of only 870,000 or 19% of the eligible uninsured. The authors also find that eliminating the MCR is likely to accelerate premium growth due to adverse selection, which will further reduce the state's eligible uninsured population from 4.63 million to 4.02 million by 2019, a reduction of only 610,000 or 13% of the eligible uninsured. The number of newly insured will be 1.30 million lower in 2019 without the MCR and with higher premiums due to adverse selection.
