The UC Berkeley Labor Center and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research have estimated the impact of a Basic Health Program (BHP) on coverage in California using the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) Model. The base scenario predicts an increase in coverage of between 60,000 and 120,000 individuals, while the enhanced scenario predicts a range of changes from a 20,000 increase to a 70,000 decrease. The study finds no negative impact on the risk mix in the overall Exchange/Individual Market, but a BHP would reduce the size of the Exchange by 720,000 to 950,000 individuals, potentially limiting its bargaining power and affecting its ability to generate reforms that lower premium cost growth over time. The study assumes a $20 per person per month premium in the BHP, and a higher premium would reduce the gains in coverage, while a lower premium could potentially increase it.
