HJT电池技术专题研究：降本增效持续推进，渗透率有望快速提升

投资要点   10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 2023/01 2023/02 2023/03 2023/04 2023/05 2023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 2023/10 2023/11 2023/12 -40% 000300.SH885878.TI   请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、HJT具备多重优势，渗透率有望快速提升4 1.HJT电池结构优异，工艺路径全新4 2.HJT具备多重优势，降本空间广阔5 3.光伏产业技术革新加快，HJT电池渗透率有望提升7 二、降本增效持续推进，核心路线逐渐明晰8 1.微晶化提效8 2.改进封装工艺8 3.硅片薄片化9 4.降低银耗9 5.设备国产化12 6.靶材低铟化13 三、投资建议14 1.迈为股份14 2.东方日升14 五、风险提示16 ......................................................................................................................................................4 ...........................................................................................................................................5 ...................................................................................................................................................5 ...............................................................................................................................................7 ...............................................................................................................................................7 ...............................................................................................................................................7 ...................................................................................................................................8 .............................................................................................................9 .................................................................................................................9 ...................................................................................................10 ....................................................................................................................................10 ............................................................................................................................10 ............................................................................................................................11 ...............................................................................................................................................11 ................................................................................................................12 .......................................................................................................................12 .......................................................................13 ................................................................................................................................13 ................................................................................................14 ............................................................................................14 ................................................................................................15 ............................................................................................15 .......................................................................................................................................6 .........................................................................................................................................12            27% 49% 6% 6% 12% 浆料靶材折旧其他非硅成本 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E PERCBSFN-TOPCon异质结(HJT)IBC其他 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 19 13 10 PERCTOPConHJT    60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2019 20202021 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20222023Q1-3 营业收入 YOY 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2019 20202021 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20222023Q1-3 净利润 YOY 350 300 250 200 150 60% 50% 40% 30% 100 50 20% 10% 0 0% 20192020202120222023Q1-3 营业收入 YOY 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2500% 2000% 1500% 1000% 500% 0% -500% 净利润 YOY