中国12月通胀数据点评

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 ChinaDecemberinflationdatacommentary 中国12月通胀数据点评 刘道钰LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422 桂晨曦GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 2024/01/15 DATA December(expected) November October September CPIYoY% -0.3(-0.3) -0.5 -0.2 0.0 PPIYoY% -2.7(-2.6) -3.0 -2.6 -2.5 1)12月CPI总体平稳、结构分化：12月CPI环比上涨0.1%，但弱于季节性水平，主要因为油价下行影响CPI下跌0.17%。受寒潮天气影响，12月食品价格环比上涨0.9%。12月消费需求大体平稳，核心CPI与服务CPI分别环比上涨0.1%。 2)12月PPI下跌：12月PPI环比下跌0.3%。其一，油价下跌影响PPI环比下跌0.18%。其二，部分行业需求不足，价格承压。其三，国债增发带动基建施工加快，相关行业价格上涨。 1)DecemberCPIwasoverallstablebutstructurallydifferentiated:ChinaCPIrose0.1%MoMinDecember,butwasweakerthantheseasonallevel,asthefallingoilpriceledtoa0.17%declineinCPI.Affectedbythecoldwaveweather,foodpricesincreasedby0.9%MoM.ConsumerdemandwasgenerallystableinDecember,withbothcoreCPIandserviceCPIincreasingby0.1%MoM. 2)ChinaPPIfell0.3%MoMinDecember.Firstly,thedeclineincrudeoilpricesledtoa0.18%MoMdecreaseinPPI.Secondly,thePPIofsomeindustriesfellduetoinsufficientdemand.Thirdly,theadditionalissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondhasacceleratedinfrastructureconstructionandraisedpricesinrelatedindustries. 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 CPIYoY%CoreCPIYoY% 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 PPIYoY%PPIMoM%(right) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 DecemberCPIMoM,bycategory(%)DecemberCPIMoMminusitsmedian(%) DecemberPPIMoM,bycategory(%) -1.5-1.0-0.50.00.5 -0. 5 0. 0 0.51. 0 CPI Food -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 Mining&quarrying…-1.1 RawmaterialindustryProcessingindustry -0.5 -0.2 Non-food --00.1.1 Consumergoods -0.1 coreCPI Consumergoods -0.2 0.10.1 Food ClothingArticlesfordailyuse -0.3 -0.2-0.2 Services 0.1 Durableconsumergoods 0.1 Producergoods-0.3 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。