产业内卷不断，需求修复道阻且长

2023年12月20日 产业内卷不断，需求修复道阻且长 观点摘要： 分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 2023年行情回顾：2023年聚酯相关商品在“预期到打破预期”中不断轮回，从国家至居民都对疫后全面开放的开局之年报以极大的信心，但现实却并非如此。国内经济修复任重道远，居民信心重建如履薄冰；美国经济并未出现预期中的衰退，而是展示了强大的韧性。国内房地产行业处于调整的阵痛期，进而无法带动终端家装市场的需求爆发。居民储蓄倾向日益提高，消费降级使得纺服市场表现平平。海外零售行业处于去库阶段，外贸需求无所依靠。重重困难也迫使聚酯产业内卷升级，提升企业的生存弹性，以面对变化多端的市场环境。 2024年PX展望：PX价格的核心逻辑还是原油的成本支撑，明年的检修计划和调油市场会通过影响加工费而带来局部波动。明年起PX进入产能投放周期的尾声，而PTA方面则是进入投产增速放缓阶段，对PX的边际需求有所增加。四季度国内装置检修期间，海外装置并没有同步检修，所以韩国、日本及中东等具有成本优势的工厂可向国内出口PX，下半年的供需转向平衡或小幅宽松，价格出现回落的可能性较大。 2024年PTA展望：明年PX投产远低于PTA投产，除配套上游的龙头企业外，生产原料依旧具有竞争性，也给PTA带来托底作用。聚酯纤维在今年保持高开工，一方面是出口表现超预期，另一方面是国内需求恢复，但明年这两方面均存在挑战。总体来看，PTA生产利润进一步压缩，聚酯产业链中效益的分配优先级情况预估是PX＞聚酯＞PTA。加工费与开工之间的联动关系进一步削弱，行业寡头推动落后产能淘汰。趋势上遵循成本定价逻辑，关注事件性驱动机会，运行区间大致在5600-6300。 相关报告 2023.Q1《调油需求带来成本支撑，需求恢复成色等待验证》2023.H1《消费追求性价比，细水长流未可知》2023.Q3《水涨船高，甘露难寻》 2024年MEG展望：在经历今年四季度价格逐步筑底后，预计春节前MEG将保持去库态势，春节期间有所累库，一季度价格重心逐步抬升。二季度关注港口库存，拐点出现后，库存或将去化至90万吨附近。下半年有纺织旺季和聚酯纤维新装置的落地，海外也将引来主动补库的拐点，需求端支撑较好。总体来看，2024年或将迎来长尾“N”型走势，第二个拐点后的上升通道较长。下方支撑在4000-4100，上方压力在4600-4700，价格重心较2023年有所抬升。单边策略上可考虑逢低买入，月间套利关注5-9反套。。 风险提示：原油价格大幅波动，纺服消费不及预期，调油需求再度抢跑，地缘政治影响运河进而扰动进口 目录 （一）2023行情回顾：踩着原油的步伐前进.......................................................................................................................5（二）调油需求出现新变化，PX环节豪取产业链利润......................................................................................................6（三）集中检修如期来临，年内投产770万吨装置............................................................................................................8 二、PTA........................................................................................................................................................................................9 （一）2023行情回顾：基于成本的“拔苗助长”式推涨.......................................................................................................9（二）加工费与开工间的联动关系发生新变化..................................................................................................................10（三）仍处于投产周期，2023实际新增1000万吨产能...................................................................................................12（三）南美及非洲接棒印度，上半年是出口高峰期..........................................................................................................13 （一）2023行情回顾：层层波浪推送下价格重心下移.....................................................................................................14（二）行业整体处于亏损状态，煤制与非煤制开工分化..................................................................................................15（三）库存高位限制涨幅，进口依存度降低......................................................................................................................17 （一）投产创新高，开工展韧性.........................................................................................................................................19（二）主动去库带来转机，工厂对高库存容忍度择增加..................................................................................................22（三）长丝出口表现亮眼，BIS认证是主因......................................................................................................................23 五、纺服消费..............................................................................................................................................................................24 （一）终端织造心态谨慎，话语权处于产业链最低位......................................................................................................24（二）居民消费追求性价比，储蓄意愿增强......................................................................................................................25（三）海外处于纺服去库周期，美国纺服进口去中国化..................................................................................................27 六、2024展望及主要结论.........................................................................................................................................................28 图表目录 图1：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································6图2：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································6图3：中国自韩国进口PX数量（万吨）·······························································································································6图4：2023韩国PX出口情况（万吨）··································································································································6图5：PXN价差走势（美元/吨）············································································································································7图6：PX进口平均单价（美元/吨）······································································································································7图7：PX-MX价差走势（美元/吨）·······································································································································7图8：PX加工利润情况（美元/吨）············································································