中国11月通胀数据点评

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 ChinaNovemberinflationdatacommentary 中国11月通胀数据点评 刘道钰LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422 桂晨曦GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 2023/12/09 DATA November(expected) October September August CPIYoY% -0.5(-0.1) -0.2 0.0 0.1 PPIYoY% -3.0(-2.8) -2.6 -2.5 -3.0 1)11月CPI回落：11月CPI环比下跌0.5%，显著弱于季节性水平。一方面，食品供应充足推动食品价格环比下跌0.9%；另一方面，相对偏弱的消费需求导致核心CPI环比下跌0.3%。 2)11月PPI下跌：11月PPI环比下跌0.3%。其一，油价下跌影响PPI环比下跌0.13%。其二，多行业供需宽松，价格承压。其三，国债增发提振经济预期，推动部分行业价格上涨。 1)NovemberCPIfell:ChinaCPIfell0.5%MoMinNovember,weakerthantheseasonallevel.Ononehand,sufficientfoodsupplydrovea0.8%MoMdecreaseinfoodprices.Ontheotherhand,relativelyweakconsumerdemanddrovea0.3%MoMdeclineincoreCPI. 2)NovemberPPIdeclined:ChinaPPIfell0.3%MoMinNovember.Firstly,thedeclineincrudeoilpricesledtoa0.13%MoMdecreaseinPPI.Secondly,thePPIofmultipleindustriesfellastherewasplentyofsupplytomeetdemand.Thirdly,theadditionalissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondboostedeconomicexpectationsandpusheduppricesinsomeindustries. 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 CPIYoY%CoreCPIYoY% 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 PPIYoY%PPIMoM%(right) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 NovemberCPIMoM,bycategory(%)NovemberCPIMoMminusitsmedian(%) NovemberPPIMoM,bycategory(%) -1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.0 -1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.0 Producergoods -0.3 CPI Food-0.9Non-foodcoreCPI Consumergoods -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 Mining&quarrying…Rawmaterialindustry-0.9 ProcessingindustryConsumergoods FoodClothing Articlesfordailyuse -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 Services -0.4 -0.2 Durableconsumergoods -0.2 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。