Labour migration in Asia: What does the future hold?

LABOURMIGRATION INASIA:WHATDOES THEFUTUREHOLD? MARCH2023 Writtenby TheopinionsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM).ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialthroughoutthepublicationdonotimplyexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartofIOMconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorarea,orofitsauthorities,orconcerningitsfrontiersorboundaries. IOMiscommittedtotheprinciplethathumaneandorderlymigrationbenefitsmigrantsandsociety.Asanintergovernmentalorganization,IOMactswithitspartnersintheinternationalcommunityto:assistinmeetingtheoperationalchallengesofmigration;advanceunderstandingofmigrationissues;encouragesocialandeconomicdevelopmentthroughmigration;andupholdthehumandignityandwell-beingofmigrants. Whileeveryefforthasbeentakentoverifytheaccuracyofthisinformation,EconomistImpactcannotacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilityforreliancebyanypersononthisreportoranyoftheinformation,opinionsorconclusionssetoutinthisreport. Publisher:InternationalOrganizationforMigration17routedesMorillons P.O.Box171211Geneva19Switzerland Tel.:+41227179111 Fax:+41227986150 Email:hq@iom.intWebsite:www.iom.int Coverphoto:iStock_982796716.©tudia72/istockphoto.com Requiredcitation:InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM),2023.LabourMigrationinAsia:WhatDoestheFutureHold?IOM,Geneva. ISBN978-92-9268-602-4(PDF) ©IOM2023 Somerightsreserved.ThisworkismadeavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0IGOLicense(CCBY-NC-ND3.0IGO).* Forfurtherspecifications,pleaseseetheCopyrightandTermsofUse. Thispublicationshouldnotbeused,publishedorredistributedforpurposesprimarilyintendedforordirectedtowardscommercialadvantageormonetarycompensation,withtheexceptionofeducationalpurposes,e.g.tobeincludedintextbooks. Permissions:Requestsforcommercialuseorfurtherrightsandlicensingshouldbesubmittedtopublications@iom.int. *https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode PUB2023/006/E LABOURMIGRATION INASIA:WHATDOES THEFUTUREHOLD? MARCH2023 Writtenby ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS LabourMigrationinAsia:WhatDoestheFutureHold?isanEconomistImpactreportcommissionedbytheInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM).Thereportwasproducedbyateamofresearchers,writersandeditors,namely: •PoojaCHAUDHARY •AnjaliSHUKLA •ShrutiPUNIA •MinakshiBARMAN •SaruGUPTA •HarsheenSETHI •AmandaSIMMS EconomistImpactgratefullyacknowledgesthesupportandcontributionsofIOM: •AnastasiaVYNNYCHENKO •AnnieYunxianJIANG •FionaROBERTSON •GeertruiLANNEAU •LaraWHITE •MaximillianPOTTLER •MyriamMWIZERWA •NissaraSPENCE •PeppiKIVINIEMI-SIDDIQ Ourthanksarealsoduetothefollowingresourcepersons,inalphabeticalorder,fortheirinsights: •AnitaGHIMIRE–Director,NepalInstituteforSocialandEnvironmentalResearch •AnnaENGBLOM–ChiefTechnicalAdviser,TRIANGLEinASEAN,InternationalLabourOrganization(ILO) •ChristianVIEGELAHN–Economist,ResearchDepartment,ILO •EijiOGUMA–Professor,FacultyofPolicyManagement,KeioUniversity •ElisabettaGENTILE–Economist,EconomicResearchandRegionalCooperationDepartment,AsianDevelopmentBank •EricFONG–ChairProfessorandHead,DepartmentofSociology,UniversityofHongKong •GunaSUBRAMANIAM–SoutheastAsiaRegionalAdvisor,MigrantWorkersProgramme,InstituteforHumanRightsandBusiness(IHRB) •JonathanCHALOFF–Comparativemigrationpolicyexpert,InternationalMigrationDivision,OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD) •MathiasSINNING–AssociateProfessor,CrawfordSchoolofPublicPolicy,AustralianNationalUniversity •RakeshRANJAN–SouthAsiaRegionalCoordinator,MigrantWorkersProgramme,IHRB •ValerieMUELLER–AssociateProfessor,SchoolofPoliticsandGlobalStudies,CollegeofLiberalArtsandSciences,ArizonaStateUniversity TABLEOFCONTENTS EXECUTIVESUMMARYv INTRODUCTIONix SECTIONI:REGIONALOUTLOOKFORLOWER-SKILLEDLABOURMIGRATIONINASIA1 SECTIONII:OUTLOOKFORKEYMIGRATIONDRIVERS3 1.DEMOGRAPHICSHIFTS:AGEING3 2..INCOMEDIFFERENTIALSBETWEENCOUNTRIES6 3.CLIMATECHANGE10 4.TECHNOLOGYANDAUTOMATIONINTHEWORKPLACE12 5.ECONOMICTRANSFORMATIONANDINFRASTRUCTUREDEVELOPMENT16 SECTIONIII:CONCLUSIONANDRECOMMENDATIONS21 APPENDICES24 ACRONYMS ADBAsianDevelopmentBank ASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations DESAUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsGDPgrossdomesticproduct ICTinformationandcommunicationstechnologyILOInternationalLabourOrganization IOMInternationalOrganizationforMigration KNOMADGlobalKnowledgePartnershiponMigrationandDevelopmentMOELMinistryofEmploymentandLabor(RepublicofKorea) MoUmemorandumofunderstanding OECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment SSWSpecifiedSkilledWorkers(programmeoftheGovernmentofJapan) EXECUTIVESUMMARY Asia’seconomicanddemographicdiversitycatalysesdynamicandvariedmigrationpatterns,creatingmutualbenefitsforsendingandreceivingcountries.Countrieswithageingpopulationscantapintolaboursurpluseselsewhere,whilemigrantsandtheirfamiliesbackhomecanleadmoreeconomicallysecurelivesthroughtransfersofremittancesandskills.With86million,Asiahostsaroundonethirdoftheglobalinternationalmigrantpopulatio