2024年可再生能源行业展望

Deloitte. Insights energyindustry outlook Renewablessetforavariable-speedtakeoffasbistoric investmentcombetitiveness,anddemandbropelthei development,whilealsoexacerbatinggrid,supplychain, andworkforcechallenges. renewable ARTICLE•24-MIN•DeloitteResearchCenter READforEnergy&Industrials Inabifurcatedrenewablelandscape,thesolarmarketbrightenedin2023,while windfacedsweepingchallenges.Thelatterborethebruntofprojectinputs,labo andcapitalcostpressures,interconnectionandpermittingdelays,andtransmission limitations.Meanwhile,supplychainconstraintsstartedeasingashistoricclean energyandclimatelawstookeffect. IntheUnitedStates,utility-scalesolarcapacityadditionsoutpacedadditionsfrom othergenerationsourcesbetweenJanuaryandAugust2023—reachingalmost9 gigawatts(GW),up36%forthesameperiodin2022—whilesmall-scalesolargenerationgrewby20%.'Only2.8GWofwindcapacitycameonlineduringthe overhalfofcapacityaddedversustwo-thirdslastyear.°However,renewableenergy's sameperiod,down57%fromlastyear,resultinginrenewablesaccountingforjust shareofUSelectricitygenerationremainedlevelat22%.°Bytheendof2023,theUS EnergyInformationAdministrationexpectsutility-scalesolarinstallationstomore thandoublecomparedto2022,toarecord-breaking24GW,andwindcapacityto riseby8GW.4 2024energy,resources,&industry 7 &Industrials2024 ReadmorefromtheDeloitteCenterEnergy outlookcollection Thetandempushoffederalinvestmentsflowingintocleanenergyandpullof decarbonizationdemandfrompublicandprivateentitieshaveneverbeenstronger. Movinginto2024,theseforcescouldenablerenewablestoovercomehurdlescaused bytheseismicshiftsneededtomeetthecountry'sclimatetargets.Theupliftand obstaclesshapingtheyearaheadhavesetthestageforavariable-speedtakeoffacross renewabletechnologies,industries,andmarkets. Federalinvestmentpush Deploymenthighs.TheEnergyInformationAdministrationexpectsrenewable electricitygeneration.TheestimatefallsbelowthelowendoftheNational RenewableEnergyLaboratory'sassessmentthatInflationReductionAct(IRA)and InfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct(IIJA)provisionscouldboostannualwind deploymenttogrowby17%to42GWin2024andaccountforalmostaquarterof andsolardeploymentratesto44GWto93GWbetween2023and2030,with cumulativedeploymentofnewutility-scalesolar,wind,andstoragereachingupto 850GWby2030. Costlows. Atemporaryriseinrenewablecostscouldbelietheirlong-termdeclining trendandrelativecompetitiveness.Highfinancing,balanceofplant,labor,andland costsoutweighedcommodityandfreightpricefallsin2023,pushingupthelevelized costsofenergy(LCOEs)forwindandutility-scalesolar,especiallyprojectswith disproportionatelyimpactedoffshorewind,whichsawa50%riseinitsLCOEfrom trackersthataccountfor80%ofinstalledsolarcapacity.'Inflationandinterestrates downwardtrendsin2024,theIRAinvestmenttaxcreditsandproductiontaxcredits 2021to2023.WhilethisequationmaypreventLCOEsfromresuminghistorical havemadeutility-scalesolarandonshorewind,includingprojectspairedwith storage,competitivewithmarginalcostsofexistingconventionalgeneration. Projectsclaimingthemaximumavailablecreditscouldcapturetheworld'slowest solarandwindLCOEs.1"Renewablescollectingproductiontaxcreditswilllikely increasetheprevalenceofnegativepricesinwholesaleelectricitymarkets.li Decarbonizationdemandpull electricityretailsales,havemandatoryrenewableportfoliostandards(figure7);24 jurisdictions,includingtwonewstatesin2023,havezerogreenhousegas(GHG) Moststatesandutilities.Twenty-ninejurisdictions,representingaroundhalfofUS Renewableportfoliostandardsandcleanenergystandardpoliciesareexpectedto Complementarytostategoalsarethe56individualand28parentutilitieswith require300terawatthours(TWh)ofadditionalcleanelectricityby2030.13 utilitieshavefurthercommittedtoeitheran80%carbonreductionoran80%share expectedtoinvestinrenewablesin2024,astheIRA'sdirectpayandtransferability ofcleangenerationby2030.1°Morestates,localities,andpublicutilitiesare mechanismshelpenabletheirmarketparticipation.l6 Majorcorporations.Inthefirst10monthsof2023,30companiesjoinedRE100,aglobalcorporateinitiativetoprocureelectricityentirelyfromrenewables,growing UnitedStates,andabulkoftheirupcomingcommitmentshavea2025targetdate. themembershipto421.17Aroundaquarterofthemembersareheadquarteredinthe Somearealsodrivingdecarbonizationthroughouttheirsupplychains.Followinga record-breakingyear,corporaterenewableprocurementsawthenumberof transactingcustomersincreaseby31%betweenthefirsthalfof2022andthatof trendlikelytogrowin2024asthecompaniesmeetandhelpothersmeet24/7and 2023.1*Bigtechnologycompaniesaccountedformostoftheprocuredcapacityl9 carbon-matchingtargetswiththehelpofgenerativeartificialintelligence.20The traininganduseofgenerativeAIcouldincreasetheirdatacenterdemandforclean tosupportrenewablesbyparticipatinginthenascenttax-credittransfermarketin electricityfive-tosevenfold."Agrowingnumberofcorporationsarealsoexpected 2024.Comingfullcircle,corporationsareparticipatinginmultin