中国10月金融数据点评

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 ChinaOctoberfinancialdatacommentary 中国10月金融数据点评 刘道钰LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422 桂晨曦GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 2023/11/14 DATA October(expected) September August July AFRE(flow),100millionyuan 18500(18300) 41200 31200 5282 OutstandingAFREYoY% 9.3(9.4) 9.0 9.0 8.9 M2YoY% 10.3(10.5) 10.3 10.6 10.7 AFRE:AggregateFinancingtotheRealEconomy 1）10月社融增长较快，主因地方政府再融资债券密集发行。 10月人民币贷款增长偏慢，主要因为住户贷款减少346亿元。 9月住户贷款大幅增加8585亿元，部分透支了10月住户贷款。 10月企业债券增长偏慢，反映企业融资需求偏弱。不过企业贷款增长较快，主要因为银行积极投放信贷。2）预计万亿国债增发推动社融继续偏快增长。 1)OctoberAFREgrewrelativelyfast,mainlyduetotheintensiveissuanceoflocalgovernmentrefinancingbonds.OctoberRMBloanswasrelativelylow,duetoadecreaseof 34.6billionyuaninhouseholdloans.InSeptember,householdloansincreasedsubstantiallyby858.5billionyuan,whichoverdrewthehouseholdloansinOctober.Thecorporatebondsgrewslowly,reflectingaweakdemandforcorporatefinancing.However,theenterpriseloansgrewrelativelyfast,asbanksextendcreditactively. 2)AFREmaycontinuetogrowatarelativelyfastpaceduetotheissuanceof1trillionyuantreasurybond. OutstandingAFREYoY%M2YoY% 14 13 AFRE(flow),bycategory,100millionyuanChangesofAFREcomparedwiththemedian -5000500015000 12AFRE(flow) 11 RMBloanstothereal 10economy 9Corporatebonds 8 7Governmentbonds -1826 -1117 8962 4837 1144 18500 15600 Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 WeightedaverageinterestrateofinterbankRMBlending% 12568 RMBloans(flow)fromfinancialinstitutions,bycategory,100millionyuan 7-dayreversereporate% -200002000400060008000 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 Jan-22Jun-22Nov-22Apr-23Sep-23 RMBloans(flow)fromfinancialinstitutions Loanstohouseholds-346Households:mid& long-termloansLoanstoenterprises Enterprises:mid&long-termloans 707 5163 3828 7384 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。