您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[中泰证券]:三季报点评:业绩改善明显,龙头优势显著 - 发现报告
当前位置:首页/公司研究/报告详情/

三季报点评:业绩改善明显,龙头优势显著

2023-11-07中泰证券d***
三季报点评:业绩改善明显,龙头优势显著

JKL(601865.SH)/YZ[ \ JKLMN;Iƒ#2OPQRSTUVW6SX ]^_`;</=>Iƒ2023a11b6c ƒ"#$%&'()=>?@ABCDE !"ffi$%26.47& 23 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E '()%*+ _-`ab78&c 8,713 15,461 20,789 27,408 33,153 defyoy% 39% 77% 34% 32% 21% ,-./01%S0740522020001 ghib78&c 2,120 2,123 2,718 3,733 4,624 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn defyoy% 30% 0% 28% 37% 24% j5`kb&c 0.90 0.90 1.16 1.59 1.97 j5Yl9m 0.25 0.08 1.34 1.85 2.45 '()%23 gno`kf 18% 15% 16% 18% 19% ,-./01%S0740522040004 P/E 29.4 29.3 22.9 16.7 13.5 P/B 5.3 4.4 3.7 3.1 2.5 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn pq%j5rstuvw56xyz[|R]~5ffizÄ2023Å11Ç3I`Ñffi FGHI *+,- ./012-3456fi8 !"# $%300 20% 10% 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 9:;< 1DEFGHIJKL%MNffi$?OPQR<=STUV?OW'XY Z[\]^ 456789:2023;<=>?23Q1-3@ABC158.85D?EF+41.6%?GHIJK19.69D?EF+30.9%?LJM21.2%?EF-1.4pctNOQ3BC62.06D?EF+58.7%?PF+43.9%?GHIJK8.84D?EF+76.2%?PF+54. 456(785) 2,351 9:56(785) 1,695  !ffi(&) 26.47 !;(78&) 62,240 9:!;(78&) 44,857 1%?LJM24.5%?EF+0.8pct?PF+4.6pctQ RB0S62023<=TGHIJKPFUVWX?YZ54%?[\]^_6 `1abcdefgQ2hijQ3ck?blmiPFWX.n?op78qrCsPFYZ59%N `2aQ3tuvwxffi.n?fgz[o|*]~üÄ?Åp78ÇJÉÑPFYZ.n?OQ3LJMPFYZÖ5ÜáQ àâ)ä6 `1affiåçéèêësíì*Cî?78bÉfiñóâòôöfiU]~õú?ùû78ü†bÉ20600°/¢?£§•¶41200°®©™ù´¶¨;;ÖÆØÔö±b?24;ÁæóübÉ?¥µ41200°®©´¶24H2ˆäáª?25;ÁæóübÉ?[•78\ªbɺÏ30200°/¢Q `2aÇJÉÑõæ?øä¿n¡¬õúQô§ƒ?jƒbŒ?78U«®© ™ù»… ÀÃOÕÉŒ?YZœlM?–—“”ÉÑg‘N’ô§ƒ?j÷ ¨ÿŒ?78øäŸ⁄¤‹›fifl‡·‚„?ùû›fifl‰ÂFÊ75%ÁËQÈ+ÍÎfg?ÏÌ78ÇJÉÑõÓEÔQ `3a∑ÒfibóâŸ⁄ÚÛQùû?78jæ¥ó21000°®©?)äfibıˆ˜¯˘˙?fg∑ÒÇJ˚Ó¸˝?´¶ÁæÚÛŸ[Q ÇJ´˛ˇ±‡ƒ"6#$23;vwffi%j¤&;'()*)äffi%+g-T?[\.+78ÚÛ?´ª23-25;@AGHIJK0/027.2/37.3/46.2D1`û ´˛230.5/39.9/48.9Da?EFŸ328%/37%/24%?4û5ffifiÄPE0/022.9/16.7/13.57?8ø9:s;ƒ"Q <=Y>6ÔÚ?@A*´¶NBCDEgFN¤‹÷¨ÿffi%GpNbÉòàA *´¶HQ ÇJ´˛I !"#$% ®©:™7£ &'% ®©:™7£ ()*+ 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E ()*+ 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E ,-!. 2,932 6,237 8,222 9,946 /012 15,461 20,789 27,408 33,153 3145 2,506 3,369 4,442 5,373 /067 12,048 16,013 21,055 25,451 3189 2,811 3,614 4,545 5,398 :.;<= 135 163 218 249 >?89 578 768 1,010 1,221 @ABC 119 146 164 166 D, 2,396 3,185 4,188 5,062 EFBC 278 333 411 464 GH!" 0 0 0 0 IJBC 523 686 877 1,028 KLMN!" 1,158 1,556 2,051 2,481 OPBC 240 391 505 603 MN!"G) 12,381 18,729 24,459 29,481 QCRSTU -39 -30 -30 -30 KLVWX! 17 17 17 17 !"RSTU -3 -37 -22 -27 VWYZX! 83 83 83 83 [\]S^N1_ -2 -1 -2 -2 `a!" 11,226 10,606 10,103 9,707 X!1_ 13 14 20 15 bcde 1,558 1,658 1,658 1,558 KL1_ 77 60 69 69 fg!" 3,784 7,026 9,944 12,570 /0&' 2,155 3,053 4,197 5,198 KLhMN!" 3,333 3,341 3,348 3,353 /0i12 2 6 3 3 hMN!"G) 20,000 22,731 25,153 27,287 /0ijk 4 5 6 6 !"G) 32,382 41,460 49,611 56,768 &'lm 2,153 3,054 4,194 5,195 nWo9 3,095 5,954 6,356 5,160 pq: 30 336 461 571 3?45 965 1,282 1,686 2,038 r&' 2,123 2,718 3,733 4,624 3?89 4,100 5,449 7,165 8,661 stYuT_ 0 0 0 0 >19v 0 0 0 0 wxy[zr&' 2,123 2,718 3,733 4,624 GH#$ 115 155 204 247 NOPLAT 2,360 3,066 4,182 5,161 KL3?9 636 636 636 636 EPS[|]~Y7ŠÅ 0.90 1.16 1.59 1.97 Ç*ÉÑWÖhMN#$ 1,302 1,302 1,302 1,302 KLMN#$ 320 344 378 402 ÜáOPàâ MN#$G) 10,533 15,122 17,727 18,446 ()*+ 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E VWo9 3,889 5,810 7,732 9,653 6Väã 3?$å 3,589 3,589 3,589 3,589 /012çVâ 77.4% 34.5% 31.8% 21.0% KLhMN#$ 338 338 338 338 EBITçVâ -1.6% 43.9% 36.4% 23.4% hMN#$G) 7,816 9,737 11,659 13,580 wy[zr&'çVâ 0.1% 28.0% 37.3% 23.9% #$G) 18,349 24,859 29,385 32,025 é&äã wxy[zpèêZ_ 14,032 16,601 20,226 24,743 ë&â 22.1% 23.0% 23.2% 23.2% stYuZ_ 0 0 0 0 r&â 13.7% 13.1% 13.6% 13.9% pèêZ_G) 14,032 16,601 20,226 24,743 ROE 15.1% 16.4% 18.5% 18.7% #$íYuZ_ 32,382 41,460 49,611 56,768 ROIC 10.5% 11.4% 13.0% 14.0% ì$äã î.Mï% ®©:™7£ !"#$â 56.7% 60.0% 59.2% 56.4% ()*+ 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E $PZ_à 87.0% 102.4% 95.5% 81.0% ñ/óNî.M 177 3,152 4,359 5,756 MNàâ 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 î.1_ 3,671 4,520 5,918 7,155 òNàâ 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 D,ôö -120 -789 -1,003 -874 /õäã ñ/ú31ôö -3,154 -1,819 -2,224 -1,968 l!"ùûâ 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 ñ/ú3?ôö 2,225 1,667 2,120 1,848 3189ùûüt 46 56 54 54 KLôö -2,445 -427 -452 -404 3?89ùûüt 96 107 108 112 X!óNî.M -7,869 -4,129 -4,084 -4,048 D,ùûüt 70 63 63 65 !7jk -8,028 -4,134 -4,095 -4,057 †Y°¢[£Å YZX! -11 0 0 0 †Y1_ 0.90 1.16 1.59 1.97 KLVW!"^§ 170 5 11 9 †Yñ/î.M 0.08 1.47 2.03 2.68 •!óNî.M 7,854 4,282 1,711 15 †Yr!" 6.54 7.73 9.42 11.52 o9ç= 7,737 4,780 2,323 726 ¶Sàâ Y&;&ßj? -741 -681 -913 -1,057 P/E 29.3 22.9 16.7 13.5 Yu•! 0 0 0 0 P/B 4.4 3.7 3.1 2.5 KLôö 858 183 301 346 EV/EBITDA 75 57 44 36 !"#Wind$%&'()*+ FGƒ"dR# ƒ" J. 5Kƒ" :s ´¶L|6~12ÜM˝NfiE¶Oë2PQVj15%)¤ Ÿø ´¶L|6~12ÜM˝NfiE¶Oë2PQVj5%~15%(R øó ´¶L|6~12ÜM˝NfiE¶Oë2PQVj-10%~+5%(R Sø ´¶L|6~12ÜM˝NfiE¶Oë2PTVj10%)¤ ÔÚƒ" Ÿø ´¶L|6~12ÜM˝fiE¶Oë2PQVj10%)¤ U¯ ´¶L|6~12ÜM˝fiE¶Oë2PQVj-10%~+10%(R Sø ´¶L|6~12ÜM˝fiE¶Oë2PTVj10%)¤ „V6ƒ"3ë0>W9:X)*6~12ÜM˝785ffi`YÔÚ2PaNfiE¶Oë2P*NfiBCIAQZUA5BC)[\3002P0OëN]<^BC)<^–2`_fi`abc3*aY<^dB2P`_fidBbc3*a0OëNefBC)ghijJU¸2P0Oë?k5BC)3l5002PYmnÏop\2P0Oë`’óJ.*qÒaQ Ø"ø$% Urés5tóu78`).vw9—78;axóU¸ésyz[|]~è– *és±‡ÄÅÚ"‡%Q —>WÇ—78*ÉÑÏÖQ—78AèÍÜCáCà—>WâäZ0ÉÑQ —>WOÓ—78*Zãåá~ç0 é*7ƇÿY@ıxã‡ÿ?èêëíì*ãåîá?Ñ@ïñóÉîê7&?òôAöõúù<§*ûüY†°Q—78Ñ@¢A£