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2023全球能源趋势报告

公用事业2023-11-04-Enerdata胡***

AI智能总结

2021 & 2022 Data Benchmarks

Overview:

The benchmarks presented in this report highlight significant shifts in the global energy landscape over the past two years, influenced by economic growth, energy consumption patterns, and decarbonization efforts.

Key Energy & Climate Figures for G20:

Economic Growth: The G20 economies experienced a return to pre-pandemic growth trends in 2022, albeit with a notable slowdown compared to the previous year. Economic recovery was uneven across regions, with strong growth in some sectors and economies, and significant impacts in others due to policy measures, such as China's zero-COVID policy, and geopolitical events like Russia's economic sanctions.
Energy Consumption: Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and global conflicts, energy consumption grew significantly, reflecting robust economic activity. Notably, consumption was higher in energy-intensive sectors like manufacturing and industry, particularly in countries like India and Indonesia. The United States and Canada, being major producers, saw continued growth in energy consumption unaffected by price spikes.
Energy Intensity: There was a slight reduction in energy intensity globally, indicating improved efficiency in energy use. However, this decrease did not meet the 2°C climate target's requirements, underscoring the need for greater efforts towards decarbonization.
CO2 Emissions: CO2 emissions surpassed 2019 levels, driven by increased energy consumption in CO2-intensive countries. The report attributes this largely to growth in sectors that heavily rely on fossil fuels, such as manufacturing and transportation, despite efforts towards decarbonization.

Trends by Energy for G20:

Electricity: The electricity sector showed mixed trends, with growth in production and consumption in some regions, but declines in others, influenced by shifting energy mixes and the integration of renewable sources.
Coal: Consumption remained steady, driven by demand in Asia, especially in China, India, and Indonesia. The EU also saw increased coal use due to high gas prices. Australia's role in the global coal market was mentioned but not elaborated upon.
Oil: Oil consumption was characterized by a complex pattern, influenced by regional dynamics and price fluctuations, with some regions experiencing growth and others decline.
Gas: Gas demand showed contrasting trends across regions, with decreases in Europe due to the natural gas crisis and adaptation strategies, while it continued to grow in other parts of the world.

Summary:

The 2021 & 2022 Data Benchmarks reveal a period of economic recovery and energy growth, albeit with significant environmental and geopolitical challenges. While there were positive steps towards more efficient energy use and increased electricity production, the global energy mix remained heavily reliant on fossil fuels, leading to increased CO2 emissions. The report emphasizes the urgency of accelerating decarbonization efforts to align with the 2°C climate target.

A troubled, yet promising yearfor energy transition? CONTENTS 2021 & 2022DATA BENCHMARKS5 GLOBAL STOCKTAKE37 Key energy & climatefigures for G206 About the GlobalStocktake38 8Economic growth10Energy consumption12Energy intensity14CO2emissions16Decarbonisationevolution Emissions kept growingsince 2021 40 Trends by energy forG2018 40Co2emissions decompositionmethodology42Main drivers of co2emissions44Still far from the targets Sectoral breakdown forEU, China and the US46 20Coal22Oil24Gas26Electricity28Power Mix30Wind32Solar 46Manufacturing industry48Transport50Residential and services 34Keytakeawaysfrom2022figures Summary52 52Key takeaways NATURAL GAS CRISIS INEUROPE55 Pre-conflict situation57 64Substituting russian gas imports Summary66 57Eu’s dependence on russian gas58Natural gas prices were already highin the 2ndhalf of 2021 66European Gas Crisis synthesis Eu’s natural gasdemand decreased inall sectors in 202260 Authors: 60Adaptationandsufficiencyinthebuilding sector62Industry sector63Power generation sector Géraldine DUFFOURSenior AnalystQuentin BCHINIEnergy Expert Chapter 1 2021 & 2022DATA BENCHMARKS key energy & climate figures for G20Trends by energy for G20Summary Key energy& climatefigures forG20* ECOnOmIC GrOWTh returns to trend *G20 countriesrepresent around80% of global energyconsumption. EnErGY COnSUmPTIOn ECOnOmICGrOWThA return tothe normalpre-2020 trend In 2022G20 economicgrowth returned to thenormal pre-2020 trend(+3.2%), with a sharpslowdown compared to 2021(6.2%). Country situations werediverse: In EU: strong growthdespite uncertainties.In Japan, Korea, andIndonesia: growth drivenby domestic demand.In Brazil and India:pre‑election year withhuge public investments. Thebiggest economicslowdownswere: In China: Zero‑covidpolicy, a sluggish demand,and the property crisis.In Russia: Westernsanctions. EnErGYCOnSUmPTIOnEnergy consumptiongrew despite theimpact of the warin Ukraine The sharp fall in Europe wasoffset by a growth in energyconsumption in the UnitedStates and Canada which aremajor energy producers, andwere therefore not subject tosoaring prices as Europe andAsia were. Theslight declinein Japanand themoderate growthinKoreawere due to veryhigh gas and oil pricesonglobal markets, while energyconsumption in China grew atthe same rate as the GDP. Energy consumption rosesignificantlyincoal-intensiveIndiaandIndonesiaand inoil-intensive Saudi Arabia,which all had a robusteconomic growth. InEurope, thesharpreductionis due to the declinein energy consumptionandthegrowth in GDP. InChinaenergy consumptionandGDPgrewat the samepace, resulting in astableenergy intensity. CO2EmISSIOnSRecord levels in2022, exceeding2019 CO2emissions fell in theEU due to a drop in energyconsumption, particularly gas,which made OECD emissionsstable. But theincrease in non-OECDcountries is huge: more than4%,due to the increasein energy consumption inCO2-intensive countriessuchasIndia,Indonesia, andSaudiArabia. Therefore, the moreenergy they consume, themore emissions they emit. DECArBOnISATIOnEVOLUTIOn Since 2000, although theenergy intensity inthe G20 has fallen by an average of 1.5%per year, this is not enough to achieve thetwo-degree target, which requires annualreductionsofalmost4%.Moreeffortneedstobe made. Latest decarbonisationindicators drift furtheraway to the climatetargets limiting a globaltemperature increase tounder 2°C. CO2emissions in the G20 are significantlyabove the level we would need to maintainto achieve the two-degree target, since theywould need to fall by more than 4% per year. The average decline in the carbon factorsince the Paris agreement is less than 1%per year, whereas we need nearly 3.5% peryear to reach the two-degree target. Therewas a decline until 2020, but the last two yearshave slowed this progress. This is becausepower generation is still very carbonintensive, using 60% for thermal powergeneration, and there has been a surge in coalconsumption over the last two years. More information inthe Global Stocktakesection. Trends byenergy for G20 Coal consumption grewsteadily, driven by Asian coalproducers: China (over 60% oftotal G20 coal consumption),India and Indonesia. Key data Coal consumption alsoincreased in theEUfor the second year in a rowdue toextremely high gas pricesthroughout theyear. Competition from gas and renewablesin theUS electricity sector reduced coalconsumptionby6%. Although Australia is a major producer, itscoal consumption declined due to extensivepowerplantmaintenance(1/4ofthefleetofflineinMay-June2022)thatreducedcoal-firedpowergeneration;massiverainsandfloodingalsohadanimpactonAustralian coal production. Noticeabledeclinedueto competitionfrom gas &renewables. Contrasting growth inoil consumption Due to the economicslowdown and soaringoil prices, growth in oilconsumption also slowed. Key data Slowergrowthforthe main oilconsumers ofthe G20. On the one hand, thethree main oilconsumers of the

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