2023全球能源趋势报告

Enerdata intelligence+consulting 20GLOBAL Edition 23ENERGY TRENDS 2022 Atroubled,yetpromisingyearforenergytransition? 2 2021&2022 DATABENCHMARKS5 ⒹKeyenergy&climate figuresforG20 6 8Economicgrowth 10Energyconsumption 12Energyintensity 14CO2emissions 16Decarbonisationevolution ⒹTrendsbyenergyforG20 18 20Coal 22Oil 24Gas 26Electricity 28PowerMix 30Wind 32Solar ⒹSummary 34 34Keytakeawaysfrom2022figures CONTENTS GLOBALSTOCKTAKE37 ⒹAbouttheGlobalStocktake 38 ⒹEmissionskeptgrowingsince2021 40 40Co2emissionsdecompositionmethodology 42Maindriversofco2emissions 44Stillfarfromthetargets ⒹSectoralbreakdownforEU,ChinaandtheUS 46 46Manufacturingindustry 48Transport 50Residentialandservices ENERDATA–GLOBALENERGYTRENDS–2023EDITION 3 ⒹSummary 52 52Keytakeaways NATURALGASCRISISINEUROPE55 ⒹPre-conflictsituation 57 57Eu’sdependenceonrussiangas 58Naturalgaspriceswerealreadyhighinthe2ndhalfof2021 ⒹEu’snaturalgasdemanddecreasedin allsectorsin2022 60 60Adaptationandsufficiencyinthe buildingsector 62Industrysector 63Powergenerationsector ⒹDiversificationofthesupply 64 64Substitutingrussiangasimports ⒹSummary 66 66EuropeanGasCrisissynthesis Authors: GéraldineDUFFOUR SeniorAnalyst QuentinBCHINI EnergyExpert ENERDATA–GLOBALENERGYTRENDS–2023EDITION 4 ENERDATA–GLOBALENERGYTRENDS–2023EDITION 5 Chapter1•2021&2022DATABENCHMARKS ENERDATA–GLOBALENERGYTRENDS–2023EDITION Chapter1 2021&2022 DATABENCHMARKS ⒹKeyenergy&climatefiguresforG20 ⒹTrendsbyenergyforG20 ⒹSummary  Keyenergy&climatefiguresforG20* Ⓓ *G20countriesrepresentaround80%ofglobalenergyconsumption. ECONOMICGROWTH returnstotrend 2022 +3.2% 2021 +6.2% 2020 -3.1% 2019 +3.4% /year 2010 Source:Enerdata–www.enerdata.net   ENERGYCONSUMPTION growsathistoricpace 2022 +1.7% 11.8Gtoe CO2EMISSIONS** riseabove2019levels 2022 +1.9% 28.3GtCO2 2021 2021 +5.1% +6.3% 2020 2020 -3% -4.9% 2019 2019 +1.9% /year 2010 +0.8%/year 2010 **CO2emissionsfromenergycombustion(>80%ofCO2emissions) Source:Enerdata–www.enerdata.net  ECONOMIC GROWTH Areturntothenormalpre-2020trend In2022G20economicgrowthreturnedtothenormalpre-2020trend(+3.2%),withasharpslowdowncomparedto2021(6.2%). USA +2.2% Brazil -3.4% 2021 2022 % /G20* 2010‑2019 2020 GDPgrowth(%/year)inG20countries 19% /G20 +5.7% +2.1% 3% /G20 G20 Ⓓ +3.4% +6.2%+3.2% -3.1% Countrysituationswerediverse: ◆InEU:stronggrowthdespiteuncertainties. ◆InJapan,Korea,andIndonesia:growthdrivenbydomesticdemand. ◆InBrazilandIndia:pre‑electionyearwithhugepublicinvestments. Thebiggesteconomicslowdownswere: ◆InChina:Zero‑covidpolicy,asluggishdemand,andthepropertycrisis. ◆InRussia:Westernsanctions. +0.7% -3.9% +4.6%+2.9% /G20 3% +4.8% -2.1% -2.7% Russia +1.7% Japan 5% /G20 EU +1.6% 18% /G20 +5.4%+3.7% +0.9% -4.5% +1.6%+1.1% -5.9% China 24% /G20 India +6.4% -6.6% 9% /G20 +8.9%+6.8% +7.3% +2.2% +8.1% +3% Source:Enerdata,www.enerdata.net OECD 53% /G20 Non‑OECD 47% /G20 +2% +5.3% +2.9% +5.4% +7.2% +3.6% -4.5% -1.4% *GDPshareofG20countries  ENERGY CONSUMPTION EnergyconsumptiongrewdespitetheimpactofthewarinUkraine USA +0.3% -8% +4.9% 19% /G20 +1.8% TotalG20energyconsumptiongrowth(%/year) 2010‑2019 2020 2021 2022 % /G20* G20 Ⓓ +1.9% +5.1% +1.7% -3% ThesharpfallinEuropewasoffsetbyagrowthinenergyconsumptionintheUnitedStatesandCanadawhicharemajorenergyproducers,andwerethereforenotsubjecttosoaringpricesasEuropeandAsiawere. TheslightdeclineinJapanandthemoderategrowthinKoreawereduetoveryhighgasandoilpricesonglobalmarkets,whileenergy consumptioninChinagrewatthesamerateastheGDP. Energyconsumptionrosesignificantlyincoal-intensiveIndiaandIndonesiaandinoil-intensiveSaudiArabia,whichallhadarobusteconomicgrowth. Brazil +2.2% -2.2% 3% /G20 +4.5%+2.4% /G20 7% Russia EU +4.8% +2% -2% 11% /G20 +8.4% Japan -1.4% -1.5% -6.9% +4.6% 3% /G20 -0.2% -0.5% -6.8% -4.2% China 32% /G20 India +4.3% -5.9% 9% /G20 +7.4%+7.3% +4.4% +3.3%+5.2%+3% Source:Enerdata,www.enerdata.net OECD 43% /G20 Non‑OECD 57% /G20 +4.6% +5.5% +0.1% -0.2% +3.6% +0.1% +3.3% -6.7% *EnergyconsumptionshareofG20countries Energyintensitytrends(%/year)inG20countries 2010‑2019 2020 2021 2022 USA -2.2% -0.8%-0.3% -4.7% Brazil +0.6% +1.8% -0.1%-0.4% G20 Ⓓ +0.1% -2% -1% -1.5%  ENERGY INTENSITY* Areductionin2022thatisnotsufficienttomeetthe2°Cobjective InEurope,thesharpreductionisduetothedeclineinenergyconsumptionandthegrowthinGDP. InChinaenergyconsumptionandGDPgrewatthesamepace,resultinginastableenergyintensity. *“Energyintensity”=energyconsumption/GDP Japan +2.9% -2.8% -2.5% -1.3% EU -2.3% -0.9% -0.6% -7.6% China +1% +0.1% -3.8% -2.7% India +0.7% +0.5% -2.8% -1.5% OECD Non‑OECD +1.5% -2.2% -2.3% -0.7% -3% -2.5% -1.6% -0.3% Russia +0.7% -0.2% +3.4% +0.6% www.enerdata.net Source:Enerdata,  CO2EMISSIONS Recordlevelsin2022,exceeding 2019 CO2emissionsfellintheEUduetoadropinenergy consumption,particularlygas,whichmadeOECDemissionsstable. Buttheincreaseinnon-OECDcountriesishuge:morethan4%,duetotheincrease USA -1.2% Brazil -10.6% +7% 17% /G20 +1.2% 1% /G20 inenergyconsumptioninCO2-